When would be next housing Bottom?

[paydawg]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

A 2.5+ hour commute each day is "doable" for people?  Man, that's a lot of time wasted commuting.

a 2.5+ hour commute is doable if it's on a train and you're able to work will commuting.  That's my personal experience.  Not a bad option if you're job is in an undesirable (bad area, too expensive, etc.) location. 

 

[jamesKirk]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

 

[eyephone]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

That?s a negative. I?m all for MaxROI and MaxPay!

 

[Liar Loan]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

That?s a negative. I?m all for MaxROI and MaxPay!

Physical safety and preserving one's time are both forms of max ROI.

 

[eyephone]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

That?s a negative. I?m all for MaxROI and MaxPay!

Physical safety and preserving one's time are both forms of max ROI.

That?s what an office admin would say. Come on

 

[Liar Loan]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

That?s a negative. I?m all for MaxROI and MaxPay!

Physical safety and preserving one's time are both forms of max ROI.

That?s what an office admin would say. Come on

or a family man.

 

[lnc]

National house price increase 3.2% year-to-year in July, so it still going up slightly.  Looks at the graph below, it does look like the house price are peaking and moving sideways going forward. 

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html

 

[momopi]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

I lived and worked in Irvine for over a decade.  But wife got a job at Edison in Rosemead.  So it was back to Cerritos area.  >_>

 

[eyephone]

I?d rather find a new job closer to where I want to live. Even if it meant a drop in pay. The most valuable thing you have is your time. That?s what my wife did. She wanted to live in a safe city like Irvine so she only applied to jobs near Irvine. Once she got a new job we started looking seriously at homes.

That?s a negative. I?m all for MaxROI and MaxPay!

Physical safety and preserving one's time are both forms of max ROI.

That?s what an office admin would say. Come on

or a family man.

physical safety? That?s a stretch
I guess work from home if your afraid to drive

 

[Liar Loan]

National house price increase 3.2% year-to-year in July, so it still going up slightly.  Looks at the graph below, it does look like the house price are peaking and moving sideways going forward. 

LA/OC is only up 1.1% for the month of July (which is actually the 3-month average of May, June, & July).  Not a very good print for the much vaunted Spring selling season.  Even IHO can't spin this one by blaming it on seasonality!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

National house price increase 3.2% year-to-year in July, so it still going up slightly.  Looks at the graph below, it does look like the house price are peaking and moving sideways going forward. 

LA/OC is only up 1.1% for the month of July (which is actually the 3-month average of May, June, & July).  Not a very good print for the much vaunted Spring selling season.  Even IHO can't spin this one by blaming it on seasonality!

"Up only 1.1%"... now that's spin. If this was a "real" slowdown, shouldn't prices be down and much lower than that?

And don't get me wrong, I know it's slower than previous years because prices are no longer climbing like crazy, but you slowdowners have to admit that based on volume drops, you thought prices were going much lower.

What was "vaunted" was how much effect lower volume would have... a 1.1% increase... what?!?

 

[Liar Loan]

And don't get me wrong, I know it's slower than previous years because prices are no longer climbing like crazy, but you slowdowners have to admit that based on volume drops, you thought prices were going much lower.

That's not how housing cycles work.  Look at any price chart of the last couple of downturns and it's roller coaster shaped.  We are still near the top where the drop is just beginning.  Only some of the people on the ride are feeling it (Irvine) while those in the safer seats near the back are still going up.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And don't get me wrong, I know it's slower than previous years because prices are no longer climbing like crazy, but you slowdowners have to admit that based on volume drops, you thought prices were going much lower.

That's not how housing cycles work.  Look at any price chart of the last couple of downturns and it's roller coaster shaped.  We are still near the top where the drop is just beginning.  Only some of the people on the ride are feeling it (Irvine) while those in the safer seats near the back are still going up.

This is not what people were saying a year ago. They said that volume was already dropping in March 2018 so that's why they were making calls of the top being in July 2018 and that prices would be dropping from there.

Now a year later, prices not only went back up a few times, but prices this July were almost the same as last July.

So now you're saying this year is the top and now prices will be dropping? Is this going to be the same story next July?

Seems like the predictions are seasonal.

 

[Kings]

i proclaim anyone that does not believe irvine is experiencing a downtown a slowdown denier!

 

[Liar Loan]

And don't get me wrong, I know it's slower than previous years because prices are no longer climbing like crazy, but you slowdowners have to admit that based on volume drops, you thought prices were going much lower.

That's not how housing cycles work.  Look at any price chart of the last couple of downturns and it's roller coaster shaped.  We are still near the top where the drop is just beginning.  Only some of the people on the ride are feeling it (Irvine) while those in the safer seats near the back are still going up.

This is not what people were saying a year ago. They said that volume was already dropping in March 2018 so that's why they were making calls of the top being in July 2018 and that prices would be dropping from there.

Now a year later, prices not only went back up a few times, but prices this July were almost the same as last July.

So now you're saying this year is the top and now prices will be dropping? Is this going to be the same story next July?

Seems like the predictions are seasonal.

I don't think I was actively participating in the discussion in March 2018, but whoever called July 2018 was right on the money!  The California Association of Realtors, Zillow, and Trulia all showed a price drop of 2-5% for Irvine over the intervening 12 months.

I feel sorry for the bagholders that bought at the exact peak for Irvine home prices..  It will be some time before they are made whole again.  They need to plan on living in the same place for a minimum of 10 years, and shame on them for not reading TI and holding off on their purchases!

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Again, our NEW EXPERT is calling it top for Irvine and going down from here.

Are you saying its better to buy in San Bernardino and Inland Empire now, if you have to buy, in comparison to Irvine, so that you can come out on top?

 

[meccos12]

IHO will only accept a greater than 15% price drop for a true slowdown, otherwise its all seasonal.  hahahahaah

 

[momopi]

Again, our NEW EXPERT is calling it top for Irvine and going down from here.
Are you saying its better to buy in San Bernardino and Inland Empire now, if you have to buy, in comparison to Irvine, so that you can come out on top?

I hope nobody does this right now.  In the previous RE down cycle the homes along I-15 dropped as much as 50%-66% from peak.

Without a crystal ball, I can't really say the same RE cycle will definitely repeat in near future.  But from investment perspective, I would start buying when the rental income is 2x of mortgage payment (P+I) or better.  For South OC, because the homes are more expensive, I'm fine with "near 2x".  This is for investment and does not apply to primary residence.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Again, our NEW EXPERT is calling it top for Irvine and going down from here.
Are you saying its better to buy in San Bernardino and Inland Empire now, if you have to buy, in comparison to Irvine, so that you can come out on top?

I hope nobody does this right now.  In the previous RE down cycle the homes along I-15 dropped as much as 50%-66% from peak.

Without a crystal ball, I can't really say the same RE cycle will definitely repeat in near future.  But from investment perspective, I would start buying when the rental income is 2x of mortgage payment (P+I) or better.  For South OC, because the homes are more expensive, I'm fine with "near 2x".  This is for investment and does not apply to primary residence.

Totally rational and makes sense.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

IHO will only accept a greater than 15% price drop for a true slowdown, otherwise its all seasonal.  hahahahaah

Finally you understand what I was saying... it only took a year. hahahahaah.