When would be next housing Bottom?

[Liar Loan]

You are deflecting from the main point of the discussions.
The main point of the discussion was appreciation in the value of new homes.  You are the one that changed the subject.

You insisting on Irvine is not as good of an investment but you have no other credibility for backing up your double in number of address or location, you pointed out that numbers from ?some online? sources suggested that Irvine had and continue to drop beyond 5% and it?s not seasonal. You continue to say that renting and continue to rent in the foreseeable future is the best options without real numbers.
I'm a successful RE investor so that means I do have more credibility than you on the topic of investments.  The "online source" I used was the California Association of Realtors, a source that your fellow Irvine cheerleader, IHO, also began using after I shared it with Talk Irvine.  A YoY drop is not seasonal no matter how many times you or IHO repeat the lie.  All I do is post real numbers and real advice.  Look at your Irvine cheerleading post just after this...Totally meaningless fluff when it comes to investing, because it is not based on real numbers.  A bad area is sometimes the best investment.

At least IHO and some other including me standby a known location ?Irvine? with real data?s and chart.
Actually, this discussion is not based on real data.  It's just a chart without data, which even IHO admits is not calculated using real sales prices, but something the author of the chart calls "value".  We don't know how that is calculated unless somebody contacts him.

All that I get from you is doubles investment in 4 years.
Yes, thank you.

Now let me be clear, everything will have its up and down. During the difficulties years, Data from Irvine have proven it was down slowest and fastest upward recovery.
Irvine was one of the better markets in OC, yet cheerleaders like you still lost 28% during the bust.  Ouch!

But this is the internet so you can say whatever and have no real consequences. SO, Carry-on, carry-on.
Yes, thank you for clarifying.  I thought we were communicating via one of those overly large 80's cell phones.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Now let me be clear, everything will have its up and down. During the difficulties years, Data from Irvine have proven it was down slowest and fastest upward recovery.
Irvine was one of the better markets in OC, yet cheerleaders like you still lost 28% during the bust.  Ouch!

And cities outside of Irvine lost more. Which is CV's point. Ouch for you Irvine haters.

 

[Liar Loan]

Did you buy in Johns Creek?

I didn't, but that is actually a better place to own than Irvine at this point in the cycle.  The reason is that the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida are seeing such a major influx of people that, in general, they should experience far less of a price drop, if any, than the West Coast markets will.

Inglewood? I remember he talked about it

I was talking about how Inglewood would be a good gentrification play because of the new Rams stadium and other development going on there.  Much like Staples Center revitalized downtown LA, Inglewood might be the next destination for wealthy, white hipsters to come ruin.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, so everybody wants to know where I doubled my money.  (It's actually a much higher return because almost the entire purchase price was financed.)

It's a duplex that I bought from a distressed seller in San Bernardino county in early 2015.  Even though OC was well into it's recovery at that point, there were many areas of opportunity in the Inland Empire that had not yet started recovering.  Just as Irvine was fastest to pull out of the recession, San Bernardino was one of the slowest, so there were still lots of opportunities up until the end of 2016.  Once Trump got elected, prosperity took over and there were too many real estate investors chasing too few deals, so prices went way up.  Now I'm selling to one of this new breed of investors for 125% more than I paid.

 

[eyephone]

Did you buy in Johns Creek?

I didn't, but that is actually a better place to own than Irvine at this point in the cycle.  The reason is that the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida are seeing such a major influx of people that, in general, they should experience far less of a price drop, if any, than the West Coast markets will.

Inglewood? I remember he talked about it

I was talking about how Inglewood would be a good gentrification play because of the new Rams stadium and other development going on there.  Much like Staples Center revitalized downtown LA, Inglewood might be the next destination for wealthy, white hipsters to come ruin.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, so everybody wants to know where I doubled my money.  (It's actually a much higher return because almost the entire purchase price was financed.)

It's a duplex that I bought from a distressed seller in San Bernardino county in early 2015.  Even though OC was well into it's recovery at that point, there were many areas of opportunity in the Inland Empire that had not yet started recovering.  Just as Irvine was fastest to pull out of the recession, San Bernardino was one of the slowest, so there were still lots of opportunities up until the end of 2016.  Once Trump got elected, prosperity took over and there were too many real estate investors chasing too few deals, so prices went way up.  Now I'm selling to one of this new breed of investors for 125% more than I paid.

To me I don?t care where you bought it as long as you made money with a good return.

 

[Liar Loan]

Now let me be clear, everything will have its up and down. During the difficulties years, Data from Irvine have proven it was down slowest and fastest upward recovery.
Irvine was one of the better markets in OC, yet cheerleaders like you still lost 28% during the bust.  Ouch!

And cities outside of Irvine lost more. Which is CV's point. Ouch for you Irvine haters.

It was ouch for everybody, including Irvine owners.  Larry profiled over 1,000 people in Irvine that lost their homes because they never thought prices would go down. 

The funny thing is you wouldn't even admit that Irvine lost 28% until I proved it to you with real numbers.  In fact, you still refuse to fully accept it and try to whitewash the numbers by using questionable statistical methods, which nullifies the data and actually makes you guilty of what CV was trying to accuse me of... not relying on real data.

I don't hate Irvine.  I simply embrace the truth. 

Yet, you've got to admit... that orange balloon is one ugly eyesore that can be seen from miles away.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Now let me be clear, everything will have its up and down. During the difficulties years, Data from Irvine have proven it was down slowest and fastest upward recovery.
Irvine was one of the better markets in OC, yet cheerleaders like you still lost 28% during the bust.  Ouch!

And cities outside of Irvine lost more. Which is CV's point. Ouch for you Irvine haters.

It was ouch for everybody, including Irvine owners.  Larry profiled over 1,000 people in Irvine that lost their homes because they never thought prices would go down. 

There were many more than 1000s in cities not Irvine. That's why Larry had to start profiling outside of Irvine and start his OC wide blog because Irvine was recovering much faster than surrounding cities and he was running out of schadenfreude. And ironically, Larry bought in Irvine... so he knows what's up about where to buy.

The funny thing is you wouldn't even admit that Irvine lost 28% until I proved it to you with real numbers.  In fact, you still refuse to fully accept it and try to whitewash the numbers by using questionable statistical methods, which nullifies the data and actually makes you guilty of what CV was trying to accuse me of... not relying on real data.

You are twisting the story here. I said in my own house hunting, I didn't see drops beyond 20% on average. And many members on TI said the same. I've said this before, but just because you show me a peak to trough of 28% does not actually represent the real story of what the actual drops were because it wasn't the same stock and prices have to be averaged out over at least a 3-6 month period due to the length of transaction time. You can't talk about price lagging volume and then point to 2 moments in time and say that represents the absolute drop... you're playing both sides. It's not questionable statistical methods, it's a combination of data, time and experience to get the true picture. That's different from what CV is asking you... he wants a comparison but instead you just keep talking about Irvine numbers because you know if you compare them to any other city, like one of your vaunted beach cities, it won't match up.

I don't hate Irvine.  I simply embrace the truth. 

Your version of the truth. Like how you said all the beach cities are better performers than Irvine and then when I posted the data breakdown using your same criteria for Irvine, they were worse. Then you hedged and said "Well... Irvine had Chinese FCBs to help". Yeah... did you talk about that before?

Yet, you've got to admit... that orange balloon is one ugly eyesore that can be seen from miles away.

Eye of the beholder. I like it... so it's not an eyesore to me.

The simple truth is Irvine dropped less and recovered faster than surrounding OC cities... unless you think otherwise.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It's a duplex that I bought from a distressed seller in San Bernardino county in early 2015.  Even though OC was well into it's recovery at that point, there were many areas of opportunity in the Inland Empire that had not yet started recovering.  Just as Irvine was fastest to pull out of the recession, San Bernardino was one of the slowest, so there were still lots of opportunities up until the end of 2016.  Once Trump got elected, prosperity took over and there were too many real estate investors chasing too few deals, so prices went way up.  Now I'm selling to one of this new breed of investors for 125% more than I paid.

E-slapping aside... congrats on this. I always thought the IE was a good place to find investments but I'm surprised that it actually has gone up in only 4 years. I thought that with "The Great Slowdown" that was supposed to happening in Irvine this past year, that IE properties were already dropping... or maybe there is no slowdown? Heh.

 

[eyephone]

It goes to show many TI members are unloading their properties.

 

[Liar Loan]

And ironically, Larry bought in Irvine... so he knows what's up about where to buy.

Larry did finally purchase, but it was not in Irvine.  In the interest of maintaining his privacy, I'm not going to say where, but he is extremely happy with it and plans to stay put for the long term.  It's a higher end, older property that needed some remodeling, but it had a ton of potential and it fit his specific need for caring for his son especially well.

E-slapping aside... congrats on this. I always thought the IE was a good place to find investments but I'm surprised that it actually has gone up in only 4 years. I thought that with "The Great Slowdown" that was supposed to happening in Irvine this past year, that IE properties were already dropping... or maybe there is no slowdown? Heh.

I was actually surprised at how fast and how far it increased in value.  My original plan was to hold it for cash flow for many years, but since prices went as high as they did, my return-on-equity is quite low now.  I can redeploy the capital somewhere else and get a higher return.  Keep in mind that this is a market prone to crashing hard, so the risk vs. reward tells me I should sell, as I made about 20+ years worth of cashflow upfront on the appreciation, if that makes sense.

Irvine was slowest to crash during the last cycle, but that doesn't seem to be the case this time.  The particular market I'm selling in has not shown any price drops because affordability is still there, and like I said, tons of aspiring investors are hungry to buy real estate right now.  (You even see it with all the "Where is the best place to invest?" questions on this forum.)

If you look across the US, the primary markets like Seattle, Portland, San Fran, LA/OC, New York, etc. are showing price drops, while the secondary markets are holding strong and still showing price increases - Texas, Florida, Nevada, Idaho, Tennessee, etc.  Affordability is driving the market right now, and that's bad news for Irvine.

 

[Happiness]

It's a duplex that I bought from a distressed seller in San Bernardino county in early 2015.  Even though OC was well into it's recovery at that point, there were many areas of opportunity in the Inland Empire that had not yet started recovering.  Just as Irvine was fastest to pull out of the recession, San Bernardino was one of the slowest, so there were still lots of opportunities up until the end of 2016.  Once Trump got elected, prosperity took over and there were too many real estate investors chasing too few deals, so prices went way up.  Now I'm selling to one of this new breed of investors for 125% more than I paid.

E-slapping aside... congrats on this. I always thought the IE was a good place to find investments but I'm surprised that it actually has gone up in only 4 years. I thought that with "The Great Slowdown" that was supposed to happening in Irvine this past year, that IE properties were already dropping... or maybe there is no slowdown? Heh.

Six years ago I laughed at my friend for buying in Eastvale. Now he's laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And ironically, Larry bought in Irvine... so he knows what's up about where to buy.

Larry did finally purchase, but it was not in Irvine.  In the interest of maintaining his privacy, I'm not going to say where, but he is extremely happy with it and plans to stay put for the long term.  It's a higher end, older property that needed some remodeling, but it had a ton of potential and it fit his specific need for caring for his son especially well.

Hmm. Either he bought again or he was renting his previous home because I think he mentioned it somewhere on his blog that he was living in Irvine. Good for him, he's detailed his family situation and I wish him all the best.

I was actually surprised at how fast and how far it increased in value.  My original plan was to hold it for cash flow for many years, but since prices went as high as they did, my return-on-equity is quite low now.  I can redeploy the capital somewhere else and get a higher return.  Keep in mind that this is a market prone to crashing hard, so the risk vs. reward tells me I should sell, as I made about 20+ years worth of cashflow upfront on the appreciation, if that makes sense.

Irvine was slowest to crash during the last cycle, but that doesn't seem to be the case this time.  The particular market I'm selling in has not shown any price drops because affordability is still there, and like I said, tons of aspiring investors are hungry to buy real estate right now.  (You even see it with all the "Where is the best place to invest?" questions on this forum.)

If you look across the US, the primary markets like Seattle, Portland, San Fran, LA/OC, New York, etc. are showing price drops, while the secondary markets are holding strong and still showing price increases - Texas, Florida, Nevada, Idaho, Tennessee, etc.  Affordability is driving the market right now, and that's bad news for Irvine.

We will see. I was thinking yours was an "outlier" but you're saying that the IE market in general is doing well? No slowdown this past year? Happiness seems to be saying the same thing... I guess I have to go find some data.

 

[Liar Loan]

Hmm. Either he bought again or he was renting his previous home because I think he mentioned it somewhere on his blog that he was living in Irvine. Good for him, he's detailed his family situation and I wish him all the best.

I believe he may have rented again in Irvine before buying, but I'm not positive on that.  At any rate, he never had any problems with Irvine as a city, just with the prices that people were paying.

 

[momopi]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

I have much better use for that 2.5+ hours.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

At any rate, he never had any problems with Irvine as a city, just with the prices that people were paying.

What's funny is the prices they were paying back then... people wish they could pay today.

 

[usctrojancpa]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

A 2.5+ hour commute each day is "doable" for people?  Man, that's a lot of time wasted commuting.

 

[Kings]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

A 2.5+ hour commute each day is "doable" for people?  Man, that's a lot of time wasted commuting.

back in my day, we commuted 2.5 hours both ways up hill in the snow with only our feet to propel our flintstones vehicles

 

[momopi]

If you live in Eastvale it's somewhat doable to drive into Corona metrolink station and take the 6:30AM train to Irvine (arriving 7:30AM).  Then take the 5:30PM train from Irvine back to Corona.  About 2.5+ hours daily commute back and forth.

A 2.5+ hour commute each day is "doable" for people?  Man, that's a lot of time wasted commuting.

My daily commute is about 2 hours.  Not a big issue as I'm on the train for most part.  There's AC, restroom, tables, etc.  If you can take Ametrack, their seats are more comfortable than Metrolink.

However, since you're stuck in a train car, if someone goes postal your options are more limited.  Last year we had a guy who flipped because he got on the wrong train (direction) and threatened the conductor.  I carry Celox and Quickclot in a side pouch.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I carry Celox and Quickclot in a side pouch.

And that's why I'm finding momo when the zombies rise.

 

[momopi]

I carry Celox and Quickclot in a side pouch.

And that's why I'm finding momo when the zombies rise.

https://www.yelp.com/biz/major-surplus-and-survival-gardena-2