When would be next housing Bottom?

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irvinehomeowner said:
Mety said:
@IHO:

I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.

You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
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Not really. That's why early in the discussion I wanted to know if we were talking volume or prices. Why? Because you don't advise someone to wait because volume is low, they don't save money on volume... they save money on pricing.

And as meccos keeps saying, pricing follows volume, but I'm not the only poster who has said that's not always the case. The correlation isn't always direct even with a lag.

I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time :D. That's when I figured just calling you sexy will do.
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The only person I have issues with is eyephone from time to time because he is disrespectful to other members, calls them names, questions their character/finances/jobs and makes false accusations. I've tried to be civil with him but instead of commenting on the topic or my opinion, he makes statements against my character or who I am. If you notice, any mention of eyephone in my recent posts were just about his call on the slowdown, not "attacking" him as he would put it (look at his last post, again, talking about me rather than the topic so I am responding in kind). I don't think he understands that questioning him about his opinion isn't an attack, it's a discussion.
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You seem to focus on the waiting discussion again. But your point of the correlation of volumes and prices is interesting. I guess there is no such thing as an absolutism besides God and His words.

If you really cared for eyephone, maybe approaching in a way he wouldn't feel offended could be better? But that's up to you.
 
Mety said:
If you really cared for eyephone, maybe approaching in a way he wouldn't feel offended could be better? But that's up to you.
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I?ve tried. Go back and read the most recent posts and look where I am addressing the topic of this thread but eyephone is criticizing me, even trying to get meccos to join in.

I?ve even ignored several of his digs trying to stay on topic.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Mety said:
If you really cared for eyephone, maybe approaching in a way he wouldn't feel offended could be better? But that's up to you.
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I?ve tried. Go back and read the most recent posts and look where I am addressing the topic of this thread but eyephone is criticizing me, even trying to get meccos to join in.

I?ve even ignored several of his digs trying to stay on topic.
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disagree
 
According to Trulia, median sales price is back up to $850k, just under last year's high of $851k.

Sales volume is still lower but I guess there must be some major lag because someone keeps saying price follows volume which in Irvine's case... doesn't seem to be happening... and volume is starting to go up too, so what does that mean?. As I've stated before, Irvine just doesn't like to follow fundamentals.

So if you were waiting for the bottom... you missed that 4.8% drop. Maybe it will be lower in December... when prices usually are dropping based on seasonal/cyclical history.
 
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Mety said:
If you really cared for eyephone, maybe approaching in a way he wouldn't feel offended could be better? But that's up to you.
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I?ve tried. Go back and read the most recent posts and look where I am addressing the topic of this thread but eyephone is criticizing me, even trying to get meccos to join in.

I?ve even ignored several of his digs trying to stay on topic.
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disagree
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Yup. It?s like crystal clear he doesn?t like us. He drops our names out of no where.
Honestly we like wasted our time talking about this. (because at the end he doesn?t care, those were his exact words) It?s like we have nothing better to do.
 
Again, to get back on topic:

irvinehomeowner said:
I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:

If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?
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Other than the volume, the pricing up and down seems "seasonal" to me.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
WTTCHMN said:
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/...ales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/
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Sales volume is down but prices are still high. Must be that lag that?s coming in December.
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Let's see what the article and data actually says:

CoreLogic found these 17 trends in 11 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register?s Irvine World News weekly ?

1. Purchases: Home sales in these nine months totaled 3,767 vs. 4,503 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year.

2. Who?s up: Prices increased in seven of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in just two ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $720,000 median selling price, flat in the period. Orange County sales totaled 22,872 residences, existing and new, vs. 27,289 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year. Prices rose in 43 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 9 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved in Irvine and Tustin ?

4. Irvine 92602: $1,325,500 median, down 7.3% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 426 vs. 299 a year earlier, a gain of 42.5% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,092,500 median, down 18.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 167 vs. 207 a year earlier, a decline of 19.3% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $790,250 median, up 14.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 29 of 83. Sales of 164 vs. 187 a year earlier, a decline of 12.3% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $725,000 median, down 11.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 92 vs. 120 a year earlier, a decline of 23.3% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $675,000 median, up 1.5% in a year.] Price rank? No. 51 of 83. Sales of 299 vs. 301 a year earlier, a decline of 0.7% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $716,000 median, up 8.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 165 vs. 181 a year earlier, a decline of 8.8% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $977,000 median, up 21.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 13 of 83. Sales of 1084 vs. 1,327 a year earlier, a decline of 18.3% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $1,002,250 median, up 0.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 607 vs. 973 a year earlier, a decline of 37.6% in 12 months.
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So for Irvine's 8 zip codes, 3 were down and 5 were up price-wise. Doing the math, is that a net price increase of 8.8%?

12. Tustin 92780: $650,000 median, up 17.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 255 vs. 320 a year earlier, a decline of 20.3% in 12 months.

13. Tustin 92782: $693,500 median, down 13.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 46 of 83. Sales of 206 vs. 288 a year earlier, a decline of 28.5% in 12 months.

14. Santa Ana/North Tustin 92705: $935,000 median, up 5.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 16 of 83. Sales of 302 vs. 300 a year earlier, a gain of 0.7% in 12 months.
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Looks like Tustin prices are more up than down too.

Plus, three more countywide trends found in nine months ended in April vs. the same period one year earlier ?

15. Single-family-home resales: 13,720 Orange County sales vs. 16,058 a year earlier, a decline of 14.6% in the period. Median: $767,000 ? a dip of 1.0% in the period.

16. Condo resales: 6,038 sales vs. 7,218 a year earlier, a decline of 16.3% in 12 months. Median: $500,000 ? unchanged in the timeframe.

17. New homes: Builders sold 3,114 residences vs. 4,013 a year earlier, a decline of 22.4% in 12 months. Median: $981,500 ? a rise of 7.3% in a year.
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So even county-wide, despite lower volume, prices are slightly up.

Do we re-check this in July? December? Next year? Next "season"?
 
I'm still not sure why we have to wait until December.

As I've said before, real estate prices (and volume) usually go up during the spring/summer and go back down in the fall/winter. So "seasonally", prices will be low again in December... sure we can compare the YOY numbers to see if this December, prices are lower than last December, but isn't that still just part of the cyclical process?

To me, what will make this "slowdown" non-seasonal is if the prices go down and stay down, no ups, no cycles, just overall prices dropping. And maybe that's where we are splitting hairs, maybe the Slowdowners are referring to a larger smoothed out trend rather than the cyclical up/downs we see every year. That I can see, as I've always contended that prices are too high in Irvine... but the sticking point is how much will the overall drop be and for how long? If both those numbers are significantly more than the last 5-10 years, that should be something to consider.

However, if you are looking to buy, how does this prediction of a slowdown help you? What do you wait for? If you waited until now, you missed the Irvine bottom in Jan/Feb and if you were looking at sales volume as some type of indicator, you may have over waited because that looked like it bottomed out in March after prices already started going back up. As I mentioned above, prices look like they may be trending back down, but then volume is rising and rates are going down (which no one predicted and probably would have been a better herald for when to buy).

This is why timing the bottom is almost impossible to do and why I gave the advice about buying if you found the house you wanted at the price you can afford. There are probably examples of homes that are for sale today that you could have bought last year for the same (or lower?) price and instead of worrying about waiting longer to see how prices are in December, you would have been in your house for a year, paying down the mortgage and probably getting into a refi today that would lower your payments even more.

So yes, maybe there are people who saved money by waiting, but there could also be people who haven't been worried about timing the slowdown this last year and have been enjoying the home they wanted.
 
With mortgage rate dropping and probably stay low for a while, next housing bottom won?t be here any time soon.

Also Irvine is in the last leg of new constructions and majority of new build will be done in about 5 years, will have even higher pressure on the prices for the existing home. 

Unless something dramatic happens to the economy, best opportunity to buy in Irvine is from now until all the new constructions are done. 
 
Funny how no one posts articles that are contrary to The Great Slowdown:

How about this (from February, before prices started going back up):
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/02/19/recession-not-likely-before-2021-housing-economists-say/

Good news, America: The next recession may not appear in 2020, as a majority of economists long had forecast.

Instead, the next downturn could be delayed until 2021 or later, making the current session of economic growth ? now almost a decade old ? the longest in U.S. history as of June. That?s the view of three housing economists speaking Tuesday at the annual convention of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in Las Vegas.

Because the Federal Reserve plans to ease up interest rate hikes at least during the first half of this year, and because mortgage rates have decreased somewhat in the past month, the 2019 spring home buying season should be a good one for home sellers, the economists said.

?This expansion will come to an end,? said David Berson, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance. But, he added, ?the odds of a downturn in the next year are pretty low.?

[...]

Despite a sales slump in the last half of 2018, homebuying and prices won?t fall in 2019, the economists said.

After rising 2 percent in 2018, new home sales will increase by about 3 percent in 2019, Nothaft predicted.

Although the pace of new home construction will remain well below historical averages, they nonetheless will continue to rise, added Bob Dietz, the NAHB?S chief economist.

After going up 3 percent in 2018, the NAHB predicts single-family home starts will increase 2 percent this year and an additional 4 percent to 928,000 detached houses in 2020.
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2020 being an election year, Trump will do all he can to goose the stock market.
Perhaps even lift the 25% tariff on Chinese goods?
 
Trump is going down the list on trade.  After China he is now targeting India, and already gave Japan 6 month heads up.  I don't really buy the claim that auto/auto parts import is a threat to US national security, but others point to US auto makers exiting the sedan business as German/Japanese victory 50 years in the making.  Well, my wife's Acura is made in Ohio, and the Lexus ES 350 I'm looking at is made in Kentucky.

Regardless of analyst predictions, I'm not waiting until 2020 or 2021.  Selling 2 more investment properties this summer as I type.
 
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