When would be next housing Bottom?
- Thread starter OCLuvr
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No. I posted a reference to Zillow when you asked for facts but the data I posted here is from Trulia and it?s historical not predictive.
So like I said, and which you ridiculed, it is yet to be determined.
You are misrepresenting my stance and the median drop which is so far only 4.8%.
For some people, 5% is enough to wait but for others, myself included, it may not be worth it if we found the house we wanted and don?t want to get caught up trying to time the bottom.
I?m not minimizing anything, just pointing out scenarios where waiting may not be an option which you have yet to acknowledge.
Would you wait 1-5 years for a 4.8% drop? Like you said, some people have a life.
@Mety: I have multiple posts where I talked about the % numbers of historical drops that you must not have read. That's why I asked about the magnitude of this slowdown because if it's within the same margins as previous years, shouldn't that fall into what I called "seasonal"? And yes, I did say I wasn't sure it's *not* seasonal until we see the full season, which by the way, meccos questioned me about:
Which brings us to this:
And this:
So why was I being criticized for not being able to make a determination if this was not seasonal until the end of the season? meccos can wait but I can't?
But I digress.
I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:
If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?
And in all fairness, we may not be able to make that determination in December because in the last few years except for 2016, the bottom usually hits a few months after December. But then again, I'm wondering why we have to wait until the 2nd drop to determine the effects because shouldn't that have been felt in the first drop? Or is meccos saying that it will take more than one cycle (season?) to see the impact?
The reason why I said that I have to see what prices are after the summer is because that's when the "slowdown" call was made.
Sure, but it's not a prediction, I assume they use data from the MLS.
Are you saying that Zillow/Trulia data is not correct?
Nice post Mety. But I think he goes above and beyond to people who he doesn?t like and like trolls them.
In regards to Real Estate. If he asked, I was thinking to buy another property or I might sell my other property. Then asked TI for their thoughts and opinions. I think the results and outcome would be different. Instead he got really personal if he didn?t agree.
(Did I have something to do with it? Maybe. But if someone is going to continuously attack me. I?m going to defend myself.)
My favorite response from him. ?I don?t care.? After how many bleeping posts. (To me it?s a waste of time.)
Since he hasn't answered this I tried to look this up myself. The best I could find was Case Shiller for LA:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA
What is interesting is when you choose the option to seasonally adjust or not seasonally adjust they are almost opposite of each other.
To clarify, I'm not using the Zillow Estimate for where prices are going, I'm using the Trulia median sales price chart that shows past pricing, the same one that meccos12 used to determine his 28% drop in 2008.
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
And I'm not an expert... I have just been in Irvine a long time and have seen the non-fundamental ups and downs of the market.
Not really. That's why early in the discussion I wanted to know if we were talking volume or prices. Why? Because you don't advise someone to wait because volume is low, they don't save money on volume... they save money on pricing.
And as meccos keeps saying, pricing follows volume, but I'm not the only poster who has said that's not always the case. The correlation isn't always direct even with a lag.
The only person I have issues with is eyephone from time to time because he is disrespectful to other members, calls them names, questions their character/finances/jobs and makes false accusations. I've tried to be civil with him but instead of commenting on the topic or my opinion, he makes statements against my character or who I am. If you notice, any mention of eyephone in my recent posts were just about his call on the slowdown, not "attacking" him as he would put it (look at his last post, again, talking about me rather than the topic so I am responding in kind). I don't think he understands that questioning him about his opinion isn't an attack, it's a discussion.
@Mety:
Your not big time until he creates a thread against you like what he did to Belly and I.
lol. Being a big time would be the last thing I would care about.
I want you guys to not fight each other. Healthy discussion is what I want to see, but some people just don't get along and it's fine too. Hope you guys don't get stressed or anything.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
No. I posted a reference to Zillow when you asked for facts but the data I posted here is from Trulia and it?s historical not predictive.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
So like I said, and which you ridiculed, it is yet to be determined.
You are misrepresenting my stance and the median drop which is so far only 4.8%.
For some people, 5% is enough to wait but for others, myself included, it may not be worth it if we found the house we wanted and don?t want to get caught up trying to time the bottom.
I?m not minimizing anything, just pointing out scenarios where waiting may not be an option which you have yet to acknowledge.
Would you wait 1-5 years for a 4.8% drop? Like you said, some people have a life.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
And yes, I understand pricing can follow volume but with prices trending back up, what does that mean?
That?s why I asked if I was reading the data wrong or if this was a dead cat bounce because prices should be going lower right?
That?s why I asked if I was reading the data wrong or if this was a dead cat bounce because prices should be going lower right?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
@Mety: I have multiple posts where I talked about the % numbers of historical drops that you must not have read. That's why I asked about the magnitude of this slowdown because if it's within the same margins as previous years, shouldn't that fall into what I called "seasonal"? And yes, I did say I wasn't sure it's *not* seasonal until we see the full season, which by the way, meccos questioned me about:
meccos12 said:
Which brings us to this:
And this:
meccos12 said:
So why was I being criticized for not being able to make a determination if this was not seasonal until the end of the season? meccos can wait but I can't?
But I digress.
I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:
If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?
And in all fairness, we may not be able to make that determination in December because in the last few years except for 2016, the bottom usually hits a few months after December. But then again, I'm wondering why we have to wait until the 2nd drop to determine the effects because shouldn't that have been felt in the first drop? Or is meccos saying that it will take more than one cycle (season?) to see the impact?
The reason why I said that I have to see what prices are after the summer is because that's when the "slowdown" call was made.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Sure, but it's not a prediction, I assume they use data from the MLS.
Are you saying that Zillow/Trulia data is not correct?
@IHO:
I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.
You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
. That's when I figured just calling you sexy will do.
I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.
You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
. That's when I figured just calling you sexy will do. Mety said:@IHO:
I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.
You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
Nice post Mety. But I think he goes above and beyond to people who he doesn?t like and like trolls them.
In regards to Real Estate. If he asked, I was thinking to buy another property or I might sell my other property. Then asked TI for their thoughts and opinions. I think the results and outcome would be different. Instead he got really personal if he didn?t agree.
(Did I have something to do with it? Maybe. But if someone is going to continuously attack me. I?m going to defend myself.)
My favorite response from him. ?I don?t care.? After how many bleeping posts. (To me it?s a waste of time.)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Since he hasn't answered this I tried to look this up myself. The best I could find was Case Shiller for LA:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA
What is interesting is when you choose the option to seasonally adjust or not seasonally adjust they are almost opposite of each other.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
To clarify, I'm not using the Zillow Estimate for where prices are going, I'm using the Trulia median sales price chart that shows past pricing, the same one that meccos12 used to determine his 28% drop in 2008.
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
And I'm not an expert... I have just been in Irvine a long time and have seen the non-fundamental ups and downs of the market.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
Not really. That's why early in the discussion I wanted to know if we were talking volume or prices. Why? Because you don't advise someone to wait because volume is low, they don't save money on volume... they save money on pricing.
And as meccos keeps saying, pricing follows volume, but I'm not the only poster who has said that's not always the case. The correlation isn't always direct even with a lag.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
The only person I have issues with is eyephone from time to time because he is disrespectful to other members, calls them names, questions their character/finances/jobs and makes false accusations. I've tried to be civil with him but instead of commenting on the topic or my opinion, he makes statements against my character or who I am. If you notice, any mention of eyephone in my recent posts were just about his call on the slowdown, not "attacking" him as he would put it (look at his last post, again, talking about me rather than the topic so I am responding in kind). I don't think he understands that questioning him about his opinion isn't an attack, it's a discussion.
Mety said:@IHO:
I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.
You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
@Mety:
Your not big time until he creates a thread against you like what he did to Belly and I.
eyephone said:Mety said:@IHO:
I think, again, you and meccos are talking about the same thing in a bigger picture. You guys' ways of saying things and nitpicking matters are different, but overall you both are saying there was a slowdown and we should wait to see the full picture. You, however, think the slowdown was just the usual seasonal pattern and meccos might think a little different. What happened stays the same. 4.8 or 5 or whatever percentage drop happened and thanks for providing those numbers.
You seem to focus on the sales price (and drop % numbers) while meccos focus more on the volume and months inventories. Both are fine, but when the inventories and month supplies grow, the flow takes different route than usual. For example, last summer season was not so hot compare to previous years. If this softening started to happen after September last year, then yes, it sure would have been the usual seasonal drop. However, it started to happen a little earlier around June. That's what some people saw it strange and called the market top, slowdown, or whatever you wanna call it. So when you keep saying or asking on % numbers and sales prices, it sort of contradicts what they originally intended to point out.
I'll say this though. I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are questioning things to troll some members out of TI or anything like that. I do believe you are genuinely asking things because you really want to know if this market flow is heading toward somewhere different. The style of your questioning might have come offensive to some people and that's where the topic lost its theme and started to get personal. I personally am a different style presenter or questioner than you so I would tend to think my way is more "correct," but I know that's not true and I do respect your style which though took me some time to figure, if you know what I mean. I give you credit that you stayed pretty civilized and calm even in midst of some conflicts, but sure came annoying time to time
@Mety:
Your not big time until he creates a thread against you like what he did to Belly and I.
lol. Being a big time would be the last thing I would care about.
I want you guys to not fight each other. Healthy discussion is what I want to see, but some people just don't get along and it's fine too. Hope you guys don't get stressed or anything.