When would be next housing Bottom?

[Mety]

meccos12 is saying we should see in December this year to see how much it really affected the RE market. Making calls and comparing price difference in short terms do not really matter. Also that Zillow data seems to be for 92602 only. Seeing all zip codes in Irvine would be more accurate. But then again to meccos' point, it's kind of meaningless to compare as of today to last year already since the price decline or the real market shift started happening from around June or July. USCTrojan's call would be kind of true that the market this year will either stay flat or decline a little which most people would seem to agree also.

Added: I was seeing sub-$1m homes were picking up pretty well up to recent this year due to the seasonal flow and also the lower interest rates, but I'm noticing a bit of slowness in the market now even in that price range since couple weeks ago or about a month ago. This should be the hottest selling season until September, but so far it doesn't seem that hot IMHO. I would think though, like eyephone mentioned, if SALT is adjusted back to how it was, the price and the demand will go higher. But that's unlikely for now.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

USCTrojan's call would be kind of true that the market this year will either stay flat or decline a little which most people would seem to agree also.

But isn't this contrary to what eyephone and meccos were saying?

Where is this slowdown people should have been waiting for? I understand there are isolated cases where people would have saved significant money but aren't those outliers if you look at the median data?

I stated before that if prices drop 5-10% or even 15%, that's within the tolerance of where prices have fluctuated for the last 10 years, but the contention is that this time it will be different because of volume numbers, SALT, Chinese FCBs reaction to Chinese economy, some other non-US economic crisis, Trump, stock market, AI, zombies... did I miss something?

And yes, this could be a dead cat jump and prices will "tank"... but why is December this year when we should check the temperature because "The Great Slowdown Call" was made circa July last year wasn't it?

We are just looking at the trend lines because prices started moving up again... and if this was really a slowdown... prices should either remain low or keep going lower... no?

 

[zubs]

Most of the news I read and even Zillow has the end of 2019 and 2020 as lower than now.
Everywhere I look "Inverted yield curve!"....prepare your anus!!

So sell all your stock and put it into a 2.1% savings and wait.
It's been 11 years since the 2008 stock meltdown.  Expectations are high.

 

[Mety]

USCTrojan's call would be kind of true that the market this year will either stay flat or decline a little which most people would seem to agree also.

But isn't this contrary to what eyephone and meccos were saying?

Where is this slowdown people should have been waiting for? I understand there are isolated cases where people would have saved significant money but aren't those outliers if you look at the median data?

I stated before that if prices drop 5-10% or even 15%, that's within the tolerance of where prices have fluctuated for the last 10 years, but the contention is that this time it will be different because of volume numbers, SALT, Chinese FCBs reaction to Chinese economy, some other non-US economic crisis, Trump, stock market, AI, zombies... did I miss something?

And yes, this could be a dead cat jump and prices will "tank"... but why is December this year when we should check the temperature because "The Great Slowdown Call" was made circa July last year wasn't it?

We are just looking at the trend lines because prices started moving up again... and if this was really a slowdown... prices should either remain low or keep going lower... no?

I don't think anyone called the exact number of how much % it would decrease. While the number 10% or any number might be not much to you, it may be huge for some especially with much lower interest rates now. But then again this is all personal subjective matters.

I tend to see more bigger pictures. To me, USCTrojan and meccos12 and even eyphone are saying pretty much the same story. meccos just officially called in TI that last summer would be the market top peak. eyephone has been saying the price has gotten too high before anyone else that must come down at a certain point and even suggested maybe waiting until things cool down a little might be wise. USC carefully analyzed with the datas and the market flow such as comparing inventories and months supplies. There is no contradiction within their arguments to me at least. The only difference would be that "when" they called the peak and "how" they presented their cases. The bottom line is the same: The market has cooled down a little bit compare to the peak which was early last year.

I don't think anyone called "The Great Slowdown" or anything too dramatic. If I remember correctly I think meccos said he doesn't expect The Crash or anything that big. eyephone never called anything like that either. They both presented what they believe how the market would flow and their argument seems to be correct so far. But to see a clearer picture, comparing Dec. this year to Dec. last year would be more accurate how much the "price" has decreased or increased since the price is not the leading indicator of how things play but the result.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I disagree... eyephone and meccos were painting bleaker pictures (why tell someone to wait for if you can't tell them when and if the drop is the same as previous years?) and even threw out "I told you so's" of singular examples of money savings that was partly due to the rates dropping than an actual slowdown.

meccos repeatedly questioned my seasonality opinion in a condescending manner but I guess no one remembers that because I'm supposed to be the big bully of TI.

eyephone even said I was spreading propaganda and false facts but after I posted the data from not one but 3 different sources... silence.

And again, in December, "The Great Seasonal Timing Opinion" could be proven wrong and I'll admit it, but all I did was follow the cycles from previous years/seasons.

 

[Mety]

I disagree... eyephone and meccos were painting bleaker pictures (why tell someone to wait for if you can't tell them when and if the drop is the same as previous years?) and even threw out "I told you so's" of singular examples of money savings that was partly due to the rates dropping than an actual slowdown.

meccos repeatedly questioned my seasonality opinion in a condescending manner but I guess no one remembers that because I'm supposed to be the big bully of TI.

eyephone even said I was spreading propaganda and false facts but after I posted the data from not one but 3 different sources... silence.

And again, in December, "The Great Seasonal Timing Opinion" could be proven wrong and I'll admit it, but all I did was follow the cycles from previous years/seasons.

So are you saying eyephone and meccos12 called something like "The Crash 2.0" like what happened in 2008? If you think they did, let us know. Because I can't remember them or anyone saying that. What I can recall is that you kept asking how much % drop they would predict and they (and also I) said no one could know how much. Predicting a market top and predicting The Great Recession are total different subjects. You might have taken too far of what they've been saying. Am I missing something?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I disagree... eyephone and meccos were painting bleaker pictures (why tell someone to wait for if you can't tell them when and if the drop is the same as previous years?) and even threw out "I told you so's" of singular examples of money savings that was partly due to the rates dropping than an actual slowdown.

meccos repeatedly questioned my seasonality opinion in a condescending manner but I guess no one remembers that because I'm supposed to be the big bully of TI.

eyephone even said I was spreading propaganda and false facts but after I posted the data from not one but 3 different sources... silence.

And again, in December, "The Great Seasonal Timing Opinion" could be proven wrong and I'll admit it, but all I did was follow the cycles from previous years/seasons.

So are you saying eyephone and meccos12 called something like "The Crash 2.0" like what happened in 2008? If you think they did, let us know. Because I can't remember them or anyone saying that. What I can recall is that you kept asking how much % drop they would predict and they (and also I) said no one could know how much. Predicting a market top and predicting The Great Recession are total different subjects. You might have taken too far of what they've been saying. Am I missing something?

That's what I was asking.

If you're going to predict a slowdown and warn people to wait before buying, wouldn't you have to quantify it both in % and time so people can decide if it's worth waiting or not?

For me, 5-10% is nominal, but when you get to the 15-20+% range, that's where most people will pause. There was a post where meccos predicted a 15-20% drop (not this year but in 5 years if I remember correctly) but in Irvine, for that kind of drop to happen, you're looking at a 25-40% drop in other cities which can only happen with some significant events and if you're waiting for that... then that danger will always be out there... so what... just wait forever? Or hope you can time that drop sometime in 5 years? People can't spend all their life timing a bottom, there were other posters who even commented that they were willing to pay more just so they can own instead of rent.

If this "slowdown" is going to be the same as the previous years, what kind of crystal ball call is actually being made here? Almost A Crash? Crash Lite? Not Quite A Crash?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Here's some speculation on my part on why maybe it's not slowing down as much as the volume numbers indicate:

1. November election results
2. Rates went lower instead of higher
3. Stock market restabilized
4. People paid less or the same in taxes
5. Laine Hardy voted as the American Idol
6. Lakers turmoil

 

[Kings]

Here's some speculation on my part on why maybe it's not slowing down as much as the volume numbers indicate:

1. November election results
2. Rates went lower instead of higher
3. Stock market restabilized
4. People paid less or the same in taxes
5. Laine Hardy voted as the American Idol
6. Lakers turmoil

7. gp development/sales unit mix changed yoy (more higher density units = lower prices/higher volume or more lower density units = higher prices/lower volume)

 

[Mety]

I disagree... eyephone and meccos were painting bleaker pictures (why tell someone to wait for if you can't tell them when and if the drop is the same as previous years?) and even threw out "I told you so's" of singular examples of money savings that was partly due to the rates dropping than an actual slowdown.

meccos repeatedly questioned my seasonality opinion in a condescending manner but I guess no one remembers that because I'm supposed to be the big bully of TI.

eyephone even said I was spreading propaganda and false facts but after I posted the data from not one but 3 different sources... silence.

And again, in December, "The Great Seasonal Timing Opinion" could be proven wrong and I'll admit it, but all I did was follow the cycles from previous years/seasons.

So are you saying eyephone and meccos12 called something like "The Crash 2.0" like what happened in 2008? If you think they did, let us know. Because I can't remember them or anyone saying that. What I can recall is that you kept asking how much % drop they would predict and they (and also I) said no one could know how much. Predicting a market top and predicting The Great Recession are total different subjects. You might have taken too far of what they've been saying. Am I missing something?

That's what I was asking.

If you're going to predict a slowdown and warn people to wait before buying, wouldn't you have to quantify it both in % and time so people can decide if it's worth waiting or not?

For me, 5-10% is nominal, but when you get to the 15-20+% range, that's where most people will pause. There was a post where meccos predicted a 15-20% drop (not this year but in 5 years if I remember correctly) but in Irvine, for that kind of drop to happen, you're looking at a 25-40% drop in other cities which can only happen with some significant events and if you're waiting for that... then that danger will always be out there... so what... just wait forever? Or hope you can time that drop sometime in 5 years? People can't spend all their life timing a bottom, there were other posters who even commented that they were willing to pay more just so they can own instead of rent.

If this "slowdown" is going to be the same as the previous years, what kind of crystal ball call is actually being made here? Almost A Crash? Crash Lite? Not Quite A Crash?

I'm not eyephone or meccos or BTB or YF so I can't fully speak for them. I only try to clarify things looking mis-understanding-ish.

What they were saying have been pretty clear (to me at lease). They saw the market going top and predicted drops in months to come. From what I can remember, they never predicted a crash and I think you would agree on that also while you might have been frustrated about them not providing a clear number. I think Kenkoko might have predicted a possible Chinese melt down, but I don't think eyephone and meccos ever mentioned anything about Chinese or FCB influences in this market. I believe waiting and seeing where the market takes when things look different is a good advise especially when you are not in hurry. Anyone who's in hurry and must buy now will not listen to waiting suggestions or whatsoever. Also these 5-10%, 15+%, and 25-40% all these numbers cases are your subjective opinions. "Irvine will be far better off" is also your subjective personal opinion while it might have been true so far objectively. For me personally, I'll take 5% discount with lower rates any day any time especially for these cookie-cutter homes, kno what I'm sayin? ;D

Also another thing is this "waiting" thing was not what they were focusing on. They were just saying the market might shift from where it was and it did. Waiting (to me again) really seemed like a secondary thing while you might have been focusing on that which probably gave you an impression that they were predicting something horrible was about to come. So (to me) all these guys and now that I think about it even you have been saying the same thing all along!  Maybe you guys are all YF.

EDIT/ADDED: The slowdown from mid-end of last year to now was/is not something that happened like previous years. It was very different and many articles called out the "First ever since 2012" headlines whether they agreed or disagreed with upcoming recessions. I believe you, IHO also agreed it was a little different than a regular seasonal pattern.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I'm not eyephone or meccos or BTB or YF so I can't fully speak for them.

Their silence is interesting.

Also another thing is this "waiting" thing was not what they were focusing on. They were just saying the market might shift from where it was and it did. Waiting (to
me again) really seemed like a secondary thing while you might have been focusing on that which probably gave you an impression that they were predicting something horrible was about to come.

You must not have read all their posts. The only reason I got into it with eyephone was because he was advising people to wait and that's when I asked for quantification because if you are going to give that kind of advice, you need to qualify it. Then meccos jumped in, defended "the data", and challenged my opinion of why waiting may not be the best choice for some, throwing around his "strawman" accusations.

EDIT/ADDED: The slowdown from mid-end of last year to now was/is not something that happened like previous years. It was very different and many articles called out the "First ever since 2012" headlines whether they agreed or disagreed with upcoming recessions.

Hasn't someone been saying that every year? It's just like on The Voice when a coach says "You're the best singer I've ever heard" each season just to convince them to pick them. And like the stock market... "oh it can't go any higher"... and then boom, it does.

And again, you must not be reading my posts but a bigger drop happened in 2015 (8.5%) and similar drops to 2018 (4.8%) happened in 2016 (4.4%) and 2017 (5%). But all still less than 10%, so if you're predicting that this is different than anything since 2012, shouldn't the "slowdown" be more than 4.8%?

I believe you, IHO also agreed it was a little different than a regular seasonal pattern.

No, I said I haven't made my determination yet because we can't know until the season passes.  If you recall, meccos kept harassing me about that, I can find numerous posts to back that up but I shouldn't have to.

So far, it looks similar to previous years, it may not be the same highs/lows but I never said it would be, just that the percentage drops may probably be within the same margin as it is each cycle (seasonal!) and if that margin is 5-10%, waiting may not work because some people are tired of looking/renting/standing on the sidelines and may not be able to time the bottom (the topic of this thread) like they want to.

But who knows... maybe prices will hit a new bottom this year and then everyone can rub it in my online face.

 

[eyephone]

?CNBC Article:Home price gains weaken yet again in March: S&P Case-Shiller index

National home prices rose 3.7% annually in March, down from 3.9% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
Prices had been seeing double-digit annual gains, but they are gone.

Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better,? David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in the report. He noted that mortgage rates and unemployment were down, along with low inflation and moderate increases in real incomes.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/hom...yet-again-in-march-sp-case-shiller-index.html

Didn?t we tell you that you shouldn?t rely on Zillow?

 

[eyephone]

I was taking a break from TI, but had to come back after I see his post. Not only I posted articles and facts to support my position. There were TI users testimonials that supported my position. ?asked for more builder credit (like $50k or more if I remember correctly- what a deal!), someone mentioned they backed out of a deal (because of the market condition), price reductions on many homes (too many), a member negotiated priced down (like big time), etc...

I disagree... eyephone and meccos were painting bleaker pictures (why tell someone to wait for if you can't tell them when and if the drop is the same as previous years?) and even threw out "I told you so's" of singular examples of money savings that was partly due to the rates dropping than an actual slowdown.

meccos repeatedly questioned my seasonality opinion in a condescending manner but I guess no one remembers that because I'm supposed to be the big bully of TI.

eyephone even said I was spreading propaganda and false facts but after I posted the data from not one but 3 different sources... silence.

And again, in December, "The Great Seasonal Timing Opinion" could be proven wrong and I'll admit it, but all I did was follow the cycles from previous years/seasons.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I was taking a break from TI, but had to come back after I see his post. Not only I posted articles and facts to support my position. There were TI users testimonials that supported my position. ?asked for more builder credit (like $50k or more if I remember correctly, someone mentioned they backed out of a deal (because of the market), price reductions on many homes (too many), a member negotiated priced down (like big time), etc...

But meccos said anecdotal/user experience is not valid. He said we should look at actual data.

The data from 3 different sources says that this current "slowdown" in Irvine for pricing isn't any slower than previous years. Number of sales might be... but prices are still sticky.

And even with the reduction of volume, like prices, that happens in seasonal cycles which is what I contended from the beginning.

Here, let me be the first to do this for 2019:

After the summer, we will see a reduction in volume and prices.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

As always, knife-catching is hazardous to your financial and physical health. 

 

[Mety]

I'm not eyephone or meccos or BTB or YF so I can't fully speak for them.

Their silence is interesting.

Also another thing is this "waiting" thing was not what they were focusing on. They were just saying the market might shift from where it was and it did. Waiting (to
me again) really seemed like a secondary thing while you might have been focusing on that which probably gave you an impression that they were predicting something horrible was about to come.

You must not have read all their posts. The only reason I got into it with eyephone was because he was advising people to wait and that's when I asked for quantification because if you are going to give that kind of advice, you need to qualify it. Then meccos jumped in, defended "the data", and challenged my opinion of why waiting may not be the best choice for some, throwing around his "strawman" accusations.

EDIT/ADDED: The slowdown from mid-end of last year to now was/is not something that happened like previous years. It was very different and many articles called out the "First ever since 2012" headlines whether they agreed or disagreed with upcoming recessions.

Hasn't someone been saying that every year? It's just like on The Voice when a coach says "You're the best singer I've ever heard" each season just to convince them to pick them. And like the stock market... "oh it can't go any higher"... and then boom, it does.

And again, you must not be reading my posts but a bigger drop happened in 2015 (8.5%) and similar drops to 2018 (4.8%) happened in 2016 (4.4%) and 2017 (5%). But all still less than 10%, so if you're predicting that this is different than anything since 2012, shouldn't the "slowdown" be more than 4.8%?

I believe you, IHO also agreed it was a little different than a regular seasonal pattern.

No, I said I haven't made my determination yet because we can't know until the season passes.  If you recall, meccos kept harassing me about that, I can find numerous posts to back that up but I shouldn't have to.

So far, it looks similar to previous years, it may not be the same highs/lows but I never said it would be, just that the percentage drops may probably be within the same margin as it is each cycle (seasonal!) and if that margin is 5-10%, waiting may not work because some people are tired of looking/renting/standing on the sidelines and may not be able to time the bottom (the topic of this thread) like they want to.

But who knows... maybe prices will hit a new bottom this year and then everyone can rub it in my online face.

I think from the context of A,B, and C, you might have focused on the C. For me, the A was the most important matter which they called out the housing slowdown before the hottest selling season. The C was when eyephone said maybe waiting option would wise. I don't recall eyephone or anyone forcing people to wait. All expressions were of freedom of speech like how you were arguing back and forth.

I read all your posts too. The strawman argument between you and meccos was kind of pointless so I repeatedly told you guys to move on if you remember..

But interestingly, you seem to be making your position more clear now. I was asking you multiple times what your prediction was and I never heard a clear answer. Now you are giving us these historical drops % numbers and saying you're not sure until we see even more clearly. Well, I think meccos was saying we should wait until December yesterday also. The only difference is meccos gave his clear prediction last year. But to agree or disagree with his prediction is your own opinion which may be completely different than someone else's.

 

[Mety]

I was taking a break from TI, but had to come back after I see his post. Not only I posted articles and facts to support my position. There were TI users testimonials that supported my position. ?asked for more builder credit (like $50k or more if I remember correctly, someone mentioned they backed out of a deal (because of the market), price reductions on many homes (too many), a member negotiated priced down (like big time), etc...

But meccos said anecdotal/user experience is not valid. He said we should look at actual data.

The data from 3 different sources says that this current "slowdown" in Irvine for pricing isn't any slower than previous years. Number of sales might be... but prices are still sticky.

And even with the reduction of volume, like prices, that happens in seasonal cycles which is what I contended from the beginning.

Here, let me be the first to do this for 2019:

After the summer, we will see a reduction in volume and prices.

I will not be surprised if the opposite happens. 

 

[eyephone]

I guess he doesn?t recognized Case-Shiller index but he recognizes Zillow forecast/predictions.

?CNBC Article:Home price gains weaken yet again in March: S&P Case-Shiller index

National home prices rose 3.7% annually in March, down from 3.9% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
Prices had been seeing double-digit annual gains, but they are gone.

Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better,? David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in the report. He noted that mortgage rates and unemployment were down, along with low inflation and moderate increases in real incomes.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/hom...yet-again-in-march-sp-case-shiller-index.html

Didn?t we tell you that you shouldn?t rely on Zillow?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I guess he doesn?t recognized Case-Shiller index but he recognizes Zillow forecast/predictions.

What's the Case-Shiller index drop for Irvine from previous years compared to this year?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And I?m not using a Zillow forecast.

The percentage drops are based on Trulia data or are you claiming propaganda again?

Case Shiller is a good index but I don?t think you can confine it to Irvine.

Although it looks like it?s leveling off for LA area, it?s doesn?t look like a drastic drop.