When would be next housing Bottom?

[eyephone]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

 

[talkirvine]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

Home owners can still write interest payment off their taxable incomes, just with a new lower limit since 2018.

 

[eyephone]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

Home owners can still write interest payment off their taxable incomes, just with a new lower limit since 2018.

True. But the salt deduction.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

 

[eyephone]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That?s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That?s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.

We are on TalkIrvine talking about Irvine are we not?

Irvine, no bubbles to pop. Let?s be very specific.

 

[eyephone]

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa.

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That?s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.

We are on TalkIrvine talking about Irvine are we not?

Irvine, no bubbles to pop. Let?s be very specific.

It?s just another sign/indicator regarding housing market.

Bay Area median home price drops for first time in 7 yearshttps://www.sfchronicle.com/busines...-home-price-drops-for-first-time-13804345.php

 

[irvinebullhousing]

You might now officially inherit the nick name ?Dr. Doom?.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather. 

 

[Kenkoko]

You might now officially inherit the nick name ?Dr. Doom?.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather. 

Why resort to calling people with nick names? Facts are facts. Facts don't care about your feelings.

What exactly is the benefit of turning TI into an echo chamber?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

You might now officially inherit the nick name ?Dr. Doom?.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather. 

Why resort to calling people with nick names? Facts are facts. Facts don't care about your feelings.

What exactly is the benefit of turning TI into an echo chamber?

Dr. Doom = Nouriel Roubini (Economist) a renowned economist that called correctly in the last bust in financial crisis.

He layed out several steps that could lead to the next financial crisis. If this happen, it will affects everything, and across the globe.

I am in a mindset that you still need a home to live in no matter what, if you can afford it now and comfortable with your payments. Now is the best time to get it because most herding mentality is doing what everyone is doing. Either waiting or rushing in. When you goes against the flow, and use it to your advantage, you will get a better deal, better assets, and better location.

 

[OCAgentGold]

This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.

I've been told my experience of being in Irvine isn't as important as data. All I know is that the data did not accurately predict what happened during the last downturn, so that's why I am cautious when it comes to people advising others to wait for some drop in prices that doesn't really equal to how much they would hope.

My experience says that real estate, especially in Irvine, can be unpredictable in respect to range of highs/lows but it is cyclical in that it eventually rebounds. That's why I focus on affordability and stability, if you can make the payments and are able to stay for 5-10 years, you should find the home you like and just live in it.

Looking back at the several homes we chose not to buy, it's tough because they appreciated much higher than expected (that includes Laguna Altura which we were never really serious about buying). Had we not waited, we would be in a better position equity-wise but we are satisfied with the home/location we ended up with so that makes up for it. But the one lesson that we learned is you can't time the bottom perfectly, try not to compromise on location/floorplan and get the house you can afford when you can.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.

I would agree that Bren/TIC was on the forefront of bringing in Asian residential buyers but it is also behind the curve on Asian businesses.  It took them years to realize that no one wanted to go to chain restaurants anymore...It let Diamond Jamboree and the Mitsuwa shopping center establish itself before it realized that ethic businesses can be super important.  It has done a decent job of catching up but it shows me that they don't have a great understanding of the Asian/ethic market.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.

 

[eyephone]

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It?s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it?s not all about the money.

 

[Kings]

Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.

this is correct.  for anyone not familiar with tic commercial leases, they require substantial financial history and in many cases large security deposits.

 

[eyephone]

Without calling out the name of the business. There?s one that comes to my mind that doesnt fit that criteria. (I?m sure if I want to waste my time I can think of others)

It?s all about max $sq footage

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And it goes the other way, these smaller businesses may not want to lease from TIC because their financial requirements are too high and it won't be profitable. From what I can remember when dealing with TIC, the percentage of sales alone was a big deterrent.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.

I don't know how true this is considering they failed to get Mitsuwa, HK market, the first 85 Deg in US, the first Meet Fresh in US, BCD, Karu Sushi, Capital Seafood (I know one came later in Spectrum)...I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of foreign/ethnic businesses.