When would be next housing Bottom?
- Thread starter OCLuvr
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I've been saying this for years. You also have to take into account the FCB unreported income and the seniors.
I'm not too familiar with this issue, but wouldn't it make sense since there are many or more affordable housings in Irvine than other OC areas in terms of the size and the population of the city compare to others? I don't think the rate is high because of the students or foreigners. I think it would make sense to count American citizens who are having these benefits in this city. I think it's a good thing that the city offers such affordable housing/apartments for lower income families.
This would explain a lot of the poverty for age 18-25, which accounts for 39-40% of Irvine's poverty.
But even if we stretch and say 100% of the poverty for age 18-24 are UCI students, we still have to account for age 26+ which is still 61% of Irvine's poverty.
That'd still give Irvine a poverty rate of 8.1%. Do we seriously blame the rest on the FCBs?
Do you really think Irvine has a poverty rate issue?
Breakdown:
Largest populations of those under the poverty line in Irvine are Asians and Whites
Asian 104,912 13,971 13.32%
White 104,677 12,411 11.86%
http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/irvine-population/
Doesn't that seem abnormal to you?
^ This, count me in.
. I still drive my 15 years old car.
No. But it contributes to my point that Irvine home prices are not bullet proof like some people keeps saying.
Irvine is not wealth concentrated like Newport Beach. Irvine is a young working class city with median age under 35. FCBs played a big part in pushing up Irvine home prices. Now that FCBs are starting to decline, It will affect home prices.
Katie Porter kept hammering her point on capitol hill that there are many people in Irvine living near poverty. You want to tell her it's not a real issue?
You keep putting up this strawman argument...no one is saying Irvine is bulletproof, people are saying that it is much more resilient to price drops than other areas for a number of factors.
Why would fewer FCBS mean a price drop? It would like mean a decrease in demand and lower appreciation but not necessarily a price drop. Also, price drops are expected in all markets, even Newport Beach....it's the degree that is at issue.
No one is also saying that Irvine is Newport Beach but very few places in the world are.
People live on the poverty line all over the place, including Newport Beach...that doesn't mean very much.
I am not the one to bring up Newport. I am too lazy to scroll up to see who it was but someone did it in defense of Irvine.
You must not be reading my posts in entirety. I've always said Irvine is desirable and has a lot of downward price resistance. Going forward in the next few years, I see more potential downside than upside for Irvine RE. I am in agreement with Panda that a 10% - 15% decline is possible in the next 4/5 years.
Regarding FCBs, I've been saying for awhile that it's not just the incoming numbers are declining, some FCBs are starting to sell. I am from a FCB family and this is what we see in our circle. This could get much worse in an economic down cycle. We are 10 years into this recovery/expansion. We are already seeing signs of a recession coming.
Now is not the time to get in.
If Irvine goes down 10-15%...the rest of the country would be in serious trouble.
Yeah I agree. I see what Andrew Yang sees. He has a very valid point.
30% of malls and retails are closing in the next 4 years. The majority of the 2.5 million call center workers will get wiped out in the next 2 years. 3.5 million truck drivers will start to get hit in 5 years. AI is already replacing many office workers including mine. Self driving cars will hit millions of people driving taxi/ubers. 94% of jobs created since 2006 are temp/gig/contractor jobs with no real growth.These things will have profound impact on the economy. Housing is not immune from the overall economy.
Things seems okay now because we are still in a bull market. But it's going to get bad once the economy turns. It's coming, we are 10 years into this expansion. Good times cannot last forever.
I dunno. The people I know who live in Shady, Hidden Canyon and the "elite" homes up in Orchard Hills are pretty wealthy. There are tons of doctors, tech, business owners who live in Irvine.
Just the fact that Irvine has an enclave like Shady Canyon shows how much wealth there is here.
Just going to put a data point out there....Australia hasn't been in a recession for 30+ years. So never say that the expansion can't go on longer than it has before. If anything, the US will become a slower growing country with less growth volatility.
Yes, I know a lot of folks in this demographic (under 40, working professionals etc). The problem is, even these people aren't going to be snatching up 2 million dollar houses. A well paying tech job + another job maybe gets you 200-300k a year. Maybe some younger doctors I know are making over 350k but they also have some debt as well. A lot of these folks have one or two kids as well, which makes it hard to justify spending money on a huge house as they are trying to establish financial stability. The point i'm trying to make is yes, there are lots of people that will keep the sub million market quite hot in Irvine even if FCBs stop coming in, but the high end is going to suffer quite a bit.
For that to be a valid data point, first you have to establish why a parallel can be drawn between Australia and USA. These are two very different economy both in structure and size.
Also things are changing rapidly. Here is Bloomberg - Australia's Economy Isn't Immune From Recession https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...stralia-s-economy-isn-t-immune-from-recession
And more current news - Australia falls into per-capita recession as growth tumbleshttps://www.smh.com.au/business/the...ession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
Re FCBs ? also don?t forget for many of them it is a way to get exposure to USD as a currency
Just witness the bloodbath going on in EM right now esp turkey and Argentina . China is a lot different yes, but people don?t trust a highly controlled currency regime. Things can seem fine for a long time until the dam bursts.
USD has been the premier currency this year , despite the FED turning dovish ... now let?s see how many financial advisors / experts can explain this
Just witness the bloodbath going on in EM right now esp turkey and Argentina . China is a lot different yes, but people don?t trust a highly controlled currency regime. Things can seem fine for a long time until the dam bursts.
USD has been the premier currency this year , despite the FED turning dovish ... now let?s see how many financial advisors / experts can explain this
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
I've been saying this for years. You also have to take into account the FCB unreported income and the seniors.
Kenkoko said:
I'm not too familiar with this issue, but wouldn't it make sense since there are many or more affordable housings in Irvine than other OC areas in terms of the size and the population of the city compare to others? I don't think the rate is high because of the students or foreigners. I think it would make sense to count American citizens who are having these benefits in this city. I think it's a good thing that the city offers such affordable housing/apartments for lower income families.
i1 said:
This would explain a lot of the poverty for age 18-25, which accounts for 39-40% of Irvine's poverty.
But even if we stretch and say 100% of the poverty for age 18-24 are UCI students, we still have to account for age 26+ which is still 61% of Irvine's poverty.
That'd still give Irvine a poverty rate of 8.1%. Do we seriously blame the rest on the FCBs?
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kenkoko said:
Do you really think Irvine has a poverty rate issue?
Breakdown:
Largest populations of those under the poverty line in Irvine are Asians and Whites
Asian 104,912 13,971 13.32%
White 104,677 12,411 11.86%
http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/irvine-population/
Doesn't that seem abnormal to you?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I feel like I'm poor in Irvine.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:I feel like I'm poor in Irvine.
^ This, count me in.
. I still drive my 15 years old car.Irvinecommuter said:
No. But it contributes to my point that Irvine home prices are not bullet proof like some people keeps saying.
Irvine is not wealth concentrated like Newport Beach. Irvine is a young working class city with median age under 35. FCBs played a big part in pushing up Irvine home prices. Now that FCBs are starting to decline, It will affect home prices.
Katie Porter kept hammering her point on capitol hill that there are many people in Irvine living near poverty. You want to tell her it's not a real issue?
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kenkoko said:
You keep putting up this strawman argument...no one is saying Irvine is bulletproof, people are saying that it is much more resilient to price drops than other areas for a number of factors.
Why would fewer FCBS mean a price drop? It would like mean a decrease in demand and lower appreciation but not necessarily a price drop. Also, price drops are expected in all markets, even Newport Beach....it's the degree that is at issue.
No one is also saying that Irvine is Newport Beach but very few places in the world are.
People live on the poverty line all over the place, including Newport Beach...that doesn't mean very much.
Irvinecommuter said:
I am not the one to bring up Newport. I am too lazy to scroll up to see who it was but someone did it in defense of Irvine.
You must not be reading my posts in entirety. I've always said Irvine is desirable and has a lot of downward price resistance. Going forward in the next few years, I see more potential downside than upside for Irvine RE. I am in agreement with Panda that a 10% - 15% decline is possible in the next 4/5 years.
Regarding FCBs, I've been saying for awhile that it's not just the incoming numbers are declining, some FCBs are starting to sell. I am from a FCB family and this is what we see in our circle. This could get much worse in an economic down cycle. We are 10 years into this recovery/expansion. We are already seeing signs of a recession coming.
Now is not the time to get in.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kenkoko said:
If Irvine goes down 10-15%...the rest of the country would be in serious trouble.
Irvinecommuter said:
Yeah I agree. I see what Andrew Yang sees. He has a very valid point.
30% of malls and retails are closing in the next 4 years. The majority of the 2.5 million call center workers will get wiped out in the next 2 years. 3.5 million truck drivers will start to get hit in 5 years. AI is already replacing many office workers including mine. Self driving cars will hit millions of people driving taxi/ubers. 94% of jobs created since 2006 are temp/gig/contractor jobs with no real growth.These things will have profound impact on the economy. Housing is not immune from the overall economy.
Things seems okay now because we are still in a bull market. But it's going to get bad once the economy turns. It's coming, we are 10 years into this expansion. Good times cannot last forever.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
I dunno. The people I know who live in Shady, Hidden Canyon and the "elite" homes up in Orchard Hills are pretty wealthy. There are tons of doctors, tech, business owners who live in Irvine.
Just the fact that Irvine has an enclave like Shady Canyon shows how much wealth there is here.
There is a lot of self loathing when it comes to Irvine - proximity bias
I was the one who mentioned this forum is littered w posts like ?for 3-4-5 million I would rather live in Newport / cdm near the ocean etc ? whenever mention of expensive new home sales in irvine is made
But I have learned over the years , not to fight actual transactional data - proof is in the pudding .
The only reality is the tape everything else is opinions ...
I was the one who mentioned this forum is littered w posts like ?for 3-4-5 million I would rather live in Newport / cdm near the ocean etc ? whenever mention of expensive new home sales in irvine is made
But I have learned over the years , not to fight actual transactional data - proof is in the pudding .
The only reality is the tape everything else is opinions ...
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Just going to put a data point out there....Australia hasn't been in a recession for 30+ years. So never say that the expansion can't go on longer than it has before. If anything, the US will become a slower growing country with less growth volatility.
ThirtySomethingWEquity
Active member
irvinehomeowner said:
Yes, I know a lot of folks in this demographic (under 40, working professionals etc). The problem is, even these people aren't going to be snatching up 2 million dollar houses. A well paying tech job + another job maybe gets you 200-300k a year. Maybe some younger doctors I know are making over 350k but they also have some debt as well. A lot of these folks have one or two kids as well, which makes it hard to justify spending money on a huge house as they are trying to establish financial stability. The point i'm trying to make is yes, there are lots of people that will keep the sub million market quite hot in Irvine even if FCBs stop coming in, but the high end is going to suffer quite a bit.
USCTrojanCPA said:
For that to be a valid data point, first you have to establish why a parallel can be drawn between Australia and USA. These are two very different economy both in structure and size.
Also things are changing rapidly. Here is Bloomberg - Australia's Economy Isn't Immune From Recession https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...stralia-s-economy-isn-t-immune-from-recession
And more current news - Australia falls into per-capita recession as growth tumbleshttps://www.smh.com.au/business/the...ession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
ok here is a prediction - and use your own judgment but this is what data shows to me
We had a good March are now back to probably 2 percent gdp growth for q1 from what was going to be less than half percent in feb
Stock market right now is forecasting 10 percent earnings growth for 2020 . If you hold stocks in your portfolio (index funds atleast ) , then you are implicitly assuming that there is no recession coming REGARDLESS of how it might feel to you otherwise .
I find it useful not to follow feelings or any economic prognosticators who use fancy words or any gold bugs who think the world is coming to an end.
The ?tape? is the best forecaster we have. You think the Fed knows it because they are smart ? Not really . They s?t in their pants last year when equities tanked. Now they are trying to justify it using Mumbo jumbo models as to why they stopped hiking ...
We had a good March are now back to probably 2 percent gdp growth for q1 from what was going to be less than half percent in feb
Stock market right now is forecasting 10 percent earnings growth for 2020 . If you hold stocks in your portfolio (index funds atleast ) , then you are implicitly assuming that there is no recession coming REGARDLESS of how it might feel to you otherwise .
I find it useful not to follow feelings or any economic prognosticators who use fancy words or any gold bugs who think the world is coming to an end.
The ?tape? is the best forecaster we have. You think the Fed knows it because they are smart ? Not really . They s?t in their pants last year when equities tanked. Now they are trying to justify it using Mumbo jumbo models as to why they stopped hiking ...