What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226991281][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226983760]Freedom is going to like this graph...



I have a hard time believing that wages increased 125% in 20years. that's what, 5%/year?



Are you sure that is correct?



Or is there something I don't understand separating wage growth from "per capita income"? Is that the top 1% effect?</blockquote>


Uh, for me to be sure this is correct, I'd have to work for the BEA.



<a href="http://www.bea.gov/bea/regional/reis/">The data source is here...</a> I do not vouch for its accuracy or completeness.



The data does indicate an average increase in annual per capital income for the LA MSA of 3.92%.
 
Some amount of income increase can be attributed to higher paying jobs entering an area. It doesn't mean all workers saw a 3.92% average annual gain, but the aggregate did. Either way, it does form the fundamental basis for house prices. The more high wage earners an area has, the greater the potential to bid up real estate.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226984875]Over 3,000 sq.feet in Woodbury under $1M seems like a very good deal.</blockquote>


I really like the use of the word "Seems", but not "is".



That's a pretty big difference.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226985956][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226985551][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226984875][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226967628]Is 41 Stowe the one on the corner? We looked at that house... really nice upgrades except the tenant didn't it upkeep it very well (seems like the cat ruled the house).



If it went for $920k... that's anywhere from 30-40% off what Plan 1s went for with those upgrades.</blockquote>




Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

Over 3,000 sq.feet in Woodbury under $1M seems like a very good deal.</blockquote>
I guess when prices hit $750k and lower in a few years than it will be a steal. ;)</blockquote>




Probably.

I won?t be around to find out

If the drops are big enough, I?ll trade up to Newport Coast or Pelican Hill.

Let's hope so.</blockquote>


I'm thinking the same...in 3 years I went from hoping to get a condo in Portola Springs, to a SFR in Northpark, to a big home in Woodbury and might end up in Newport Coast in another 2-3 years...isn't it amazing!
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1226997862][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226985956][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226985551][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226984875][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226967628]Is 41 Stowe the one on the corner? We looked at that house... really nice upgrades except the tenant didn't it upkeep it very well (seems like the cat ruled the house).



If it went for $920k... that's anywhere from 30-40% off what Plan 1s went for with those upgrades.</blockquote>




Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

Over 3,000 sq.feet in Woodbury under $1M seems like a very good deal.</blockquote>
I guess when prices hit $750k and lower in a few years than it will be a steal. ;)</blockquote>




Probably.

I won?t be around to find out

If the drops are big enough, I?ll trade up to Newport Coast or Pelican Hill.

Let's hope so.</blockquote>


I'm thinking the same...in 3 years I went from hoping to get a condo in Portola Springs, to a SFR in Northpark, to a big home in Woodbury and might end up in Newport Coast in another 2-3 years...isn't it amazing!</blockquote>


It keeps getting better and better each day. I can't believe my dream house will be within reach one day! :cheese:
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226991281][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226983760]Freedom is going to like this graph...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/csvpci.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>




I have a hard time believing that wages increased 125% in 20years. that's what, 5%/year?





Are you sure that is correct?



Or is there something I don't understand separating wage growth from "per capita income"? Is that the top 1% effect?</blockquote>


I haven't read a lot of comments about the overshooting of real estate. However, from that chart, it looks like 1/3 of the increase was past along to the downturn. If this happens again, we could see up to a 60% drop from top to bottom. 60% is not unreasonable anymore...Ouch!
 
I just completed an exhausting escrow update... 16 new properties went under contract since Friday. Guess everyone is buying homes for Xmas.



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a>
 
so the lower end is now CS=170s, but the higher end is still above 200?



WTF is up with CS=240 and 255? were those properties significantly upgraded?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1227007758]so the lower end is now CS=170s, but the higher end is still above 200?



WTF is up with CS=240 and 255? were those properties significantly upgraded?</blockquote>


Some of the 240-260 CS sales were new at last purchase so the higher index is in part the result of post purchase upgrading. Things like landscaping, window treatmetns, maybe even flooring wouldn't have been included in the previous purchase price. Unfortunately, there are still some that are simply selling for WTF prices as compared to the overall Irvine market.



It feels like the lower end is definitely startign to drag down the index more so of late...
 
<a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/27-Antique-Rose-Irvine-CA-92620/63114345_zpid">Places like these</a> prop up the CS index. Closed for $1.39M yesterday for a 266.
 
[quote author="Allison C." date=1226998145][quote author="Roo" date=1226997862][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226985956][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226985551][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226984875][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226967628]Is 41 Stowe the one on the corner? We looked at that house... really nice upgrades except the tenant didn't it upkeep it very well (seems like the cat ruled the house).



If it went for $920k... that's anywhere from 30-40% off what Plan 1s went for with those upgrades.</blockquote>




Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

Over 3,000 sq.feet in Woodbury under $1M seems like a very good deal.</blockquote>
I guess when prices hit $750k and lower in a few years than it will be a steal. ;)</blockquote>




Probably.

I won?t be around to find out

If the drops are big enough, I?ll trade up to Newport Coast or Pelican Hill.

Let's hope so.</blockquote>


I'm thinking the same...in 3 years I went from hoping to get a condo in Portola Springs, to a SFR in Northpark, to a big home in Woodbury and might end up in Newport Coast in another 2-3 years...isn't it amazing!</blockquote>


It keeps getting better and better each day. I can't believe my dream house will be within reach one day! :cheese:</blockquote>


YEAH!

Get pumped, that?s what I?m talking about
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227059528][quote author="Allison C." date=1226998145]It keeps getting better and better each day. I can't believe my dream house will be within reach one day! :cheese:</blockquote>


YEAH!

Get pumped, that?s what I?m talking about</blockquote>


LOL. Prices have essentially been flat in Irvine now for nine months now... What is there to get pumped about?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227060206][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227059528][quote author="Allison C." date=1226998145]It keeps getting better and better each day. I can't believe my dream house will be within reach one day! :cheese:</blockquote>


YEAH!

Get pumped, that?s what I?m talking about</blockquote>


LOL. Prices have essentially been flat in Irvine now for nine months now... What is there to get pumped about?</blockquote>




We?re talking about 41 Stowe going for under $1M.

When was the last time you saw a Mille Fleurs home in Woodbury at that price point?

Exactly, you haven?t.

Those places were selling for north of $1.2M

Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.
 
IPO - thanks for updating your site. I am curious, what happened to the column that I think you used to have with the percentage put down by the buyer? Sorry if you already explained what happened to it and I missed it.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227061107]IPO - thanks for updating your site. I am curious, what happened to the column that I think you used to have with the percentage put down by the buyer? Sorry if you already explained what happened to it and I missed it.</blockquote>


The down payment amount is on IR2's closed sale tracking that he updates each month... Someday we will merge data into a masterful collection.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227069225][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.</blockquote>


Why don't you forget about all this and just buy? Put your money where you think it should be.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227069883][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227069225][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.</blockquote>


Why don't you forget about all this and just buy? Put your money where you think it should be.</blockquote>


I have put my money where I think it will be, i.e. I expect declines. I expected them to kick-in again after the summer selling season but doesn't appear to be happening, at least not yet. Renting is more costly than owning my previous place so I am actually spending more each month now and haven't gained via continued depreciation in prices. That irks the hell out of me...
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227069883][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227069225][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.</blockquote>


Why don't you forget about all this and just buy? Put your money where you think it should be.</blockquote>




Yeah, let?s see it.

Don?t be afraid Ipop, step into the ring!
 
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