What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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[quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417396][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225411109]Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...</blockquote>


WOW! $311 sq ft. for nice huge Northpark home? Ten, IPO, why didn't you guys jump on this?</blockquote>


Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225417505][quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417396][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225411109]Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...</blockquote>


WOW! $311 sq ft. for nice huge Northpark home? Ten, IPO, why didn't you guys jump on this?</blockquote>


Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...</blockquote>


I thought your whole thing was "i'm going to be in the house a long time, its more important to get what I want in a nice location then to lose 50k or so over a few years" etc.?



Do you believe prices aer going to come down another 20% or more? And at what point are you ok with further decline (5% ok, but 10% too much?) vs. not?
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417396][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225411109]Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...</blockquote>


WOW! $311 sq ft. for nice huge Northpark home? Ten, IPO, why didn't you guys jump on this?</blockquote>




This one was under contract prior to my seeing or hearing about it.

It?s been pending for sometime and now finally closed.

In my previous posts on this thread, I?ve mentioned numerous times that I liked this house and would move on it at this price point.

The competition 15 Paso Robles is still on the market asking $1.649M

Somehow I don?t think they?re ready to let it go for $1.3M.

We?ll see
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225417505][quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417396][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225411109]Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...</blockquote>


WOW! $311 sq ft. for nice huge Northpark home? Ten, IPO, why didn't you guys jump on this?</blockquote>


Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...</blockquote>
I thought you want Irvine school district?
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417791]



I thought your whole thing was "i'm going to be in the house a long time, its more important to get what I want in a nice location then to lose 50k or so over a few years" etc.?



Do you believe prices aer going to come down another 20% or more? And at what point are you ok with further decline (5% ok, but 10% too much?) vs. not?</blockquote>


I really have no idea 25... When I sold my condo, I felt pretty confident in prices falling at least another 10%. I assumed that after the summer, we'd get another leg down in prices. October actually having higher prices is a disturbing trend. With all that has gone in the equity and credit markets, I'd have thought sales would have seized up in October (not the case apparently) and prices would be softening at an accelerated pace. Maybe it will take until November/December to see that effect, I have no idea.



If Irvine somehow stubbornly holds to prices around this level, I guess it'll be AV for us. The price differential between AV and Irvine has really widened lately. Makes AV a more compelling alternative...
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225421475]I thought you want Irvine school district?</blockquote>


I prefer IUSD but would be fine with a good trifecta of TUSD schools. Hicks, Pioneer, and Beckman are just as good in my book as any IUSD combo.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225427093][quote author="25w100k+" date=1225417791]



I thought your whole thing was "i'm going to be in the house a long time, its more important to get what I want in a nice location then to lose 50k or so over a few years" etc.?



Do you believe prices aer going to come down another 20% or more? And at what point are you ok with further decline (5% ok, but 10% too much?) vs. not?</blockquote>


I really have no idea 25... When I sold my condo, I felt pretty confident in prices falling at least another 10%. I assumed that after the summer, we'd get another leg down in prices. October actually having higher prices is a disturbing trend. With all that has gone in the equity and credit markets, I'd have thought sales would have seized up in October (not the case apparently) and prices would be softening at an accelerated pace. Maybe it will take until November/December to see that effect, I have no idea.



If Irvine somehow stubbornly holds to prices around this level, I guess it'll be AV for us. The price differential between AV and Irvine has really widened lately. Makes AV a more compelling alternative...</blockquote>


I sense your frustration and I understand. I went to see a home in Turtle Ridge and it's so small and still expensive. The HOA is $395. I have not looked at the Mello Roos.
 
Just added 15 new escrows that have gone under contract since late last week...



EDIT - Make that 17 new escrows, just found two more.
 
Couple of recent closings on small condos, 1200-1400sf, have been within a few hundred dollars per month of rental parity. They are rollbacks to late 2003 pricing. The places in question were recent REOs and in fairly premium Irvine neighborhoods, NW Pointe and Northpark.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225950961]Couple of recent closings on small condos, 1200-1400sf, have been within a few hundred dollars per month of rental parity. They are rollbacks to late 2003 pricing. The places in question were recent REOs and in fairly premium Irvine neighborhoods, NW Pointe and Northpark.</blockquote>


Can you send us the info on those?
 
[quote author="sonicko" date=1225951768][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225950961]Couple of recent closings on small condos, 1200-1400sf, have been within a few hundred dollars per month of rental parity. They are rollbacks to late 2003 pricing. The places in question were recent REOs and in fairly premium Irvine neighborhoods, NW Pointe and Northpark.</blockquote>


Can you send us the info on those?</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Closing prices are here.</a> Terra Bella is a 2/2.5, 1341sf, in Northpark. Pretty clean inside. Almost move-in ready. Looks like the close forced a big price reduction <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1204-Terra-Bella-92602/home/5794362">on this market chaser in the same tract.</a> The one on Rathbourne was a 2/2, 1260sf unit, in the same complex <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/801-Yorkshire-92620/home/5794041">as this slightly larger one</a>.



I'd guess these would have to rent for $2200 or so... Closing price around $400K is probably within $300 per month of rental parity.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225952491][quote author="sonicko" date=1225951768][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225950961]Couple of recent closings on small condos, 1200-1400sf, have been within a few hundred dollars per month of rental parity. They are rollbacks to late 2003 pricing. The places in question were recent REOs and in fairly premium Irvine neighborhoods, NW Pointe and Northpark.</blockquote>


Can you send us the info on those?</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Closing prices are here.</a> Terra Bella is a 2/2.5, 1341sf, in Northpark. Pretty clean inside. Almost move-in ready. Looks like the close forced a big price reduction <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1204-Terra-Bella-92602/home/5794362">on this market chaser in the same tract.</a> The one on Rathbourne was a 2/2, 1260sf unit, in the same complex <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/801-Yorkshire-92620/home/5794041">as this slightly larger one</a>.



I'd guess these would have to rent for $2200 or so... Closing price around $400K is probably within $300 per month of rental parity.</blockquote>


Thank you. We're hoping to get a 3/2 townhouse in Irvine built in the late 90s or so for about $400k, but these are great comps. Thank you again.
 
Hi IPO,



Just in case you didn't update your <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">website </a>yet: 15 Three Rivers, Irvine--Northpark (MLS P649689) has closed today for $725K. This was a<a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/evergreen.htm"> Evergreen Model 4 </a>in Northpark. They had the same model close for $690K at 21 Crescent City recently but Three Rivers had a better corner location and fronting a street (i.e. better curb appeal and brigher).
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1225963856]Hi IPO,



Just in case you didn't update your <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">website </a>yet: 15 Three Rivers, Irvine--Northpark (MLS P649689) has closed today for $725K. This was a<a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/evergreen.htm"> Evergreen Model 4 </a>in Northpark. They had the same model close for $690K at 21 Crescent City recently but Three Rivers had a better corner location and fronting a street (i.e. better curb appeal and brigher).</blockquote>


Thanks IAC. I did update for Three Rivers.



Just added another eight new escrows. Found two cancels as well...



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">November has started out with a big average price decline</a>, but the sample is still tiny.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226125987]

<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">November has started out with a big average price decline</a>, but the sample is still tiny.</blockquote>


Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!



Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1226128751][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226125987]

<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">November has started out with a big average price decline</a>, but the sample is still tiny.</blockquote>


Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!



Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/casecpi0808.jpg" alt="" />



Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...
 
based on CPI? you think that a 75% appreciation from year2000 is justified based on wage growth? I would be curious to see just how much wages will have increased once all that mortgage broker salary has been removed from the system.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226130083][quote author="Roo" date=1226128751][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226125987]

<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">November has started out with a big average price decline</a>, but the sample is still tiny.</blockquote>


Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!



Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/casecpi0808.jpg" alt="" />



Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...</blockquote>


The chart uses 1990 as a starting point which was near the peak of the previous bubble. A more reasonable starting point to project a bottom would be the previous bottom in 1997.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1226138082][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226130083][quote author="Roo" date=1226128751][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1226125987]

<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">November has started out with a big average price decline</a>, but the sample is still tiny.</blockquote>


Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!



Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.</blockquote>


Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...</blockquote>


The chart uses 1990 as a starting point which was near the peak of the previous bubble. A more reasonable starting point to project a bottom would be the previous bottom in 1997.</blockquote>


I'll run it back to Jan 1987, which is as far as Case goes back, and see how it looks...
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226137145]based on CPI? you think that a 75% appreciation from year2000 is justified based on wage growth? I would be curious to see just how much wages will have increased once all that mortgage broker salary has been removed from the system.</blockquote>


I make no claims about what is justified or not. You give me wage growth numbers over the period and I'll use them. I haven't seen them but I do agree they would be a much better inflater than CPI.
 
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