What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1224906798]The big October price declines in Irvine have been wiped out by recent closings. October is now showing less than a 1% drop vs. September.</blockquote>


Just got back from a nice weekend in Napa and to my dismay October closings are now showing an INCREASE from September prices...



My sample is huge this month, 65 sales so far, so October is probably going to pencil out as a banner month for the RE bulls.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225092591][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1224906798]The big October price declines in Irvine have been wiped out by recent closings. October is now showing less than a 1% drop vs. September.</blockquote>


Just got back from a nice weekend in Napa and to my dismay October closings are now showing an INCREASE from September prices...



My sample is huge this month, 65 sales so far, so October is probably going to pencil out as a banner month for the RE bulls.</blockquote>


Can you explain how you calculate the index? I looked and it seems that most of the house have huge price decrease from 2006.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225093410][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225092591][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1224906798]The big October price declines in Irvine have been wiped out by recent closings. October is now showing less than a 1% drop vs. September.</blockquote>


Just got back from a nice weekend in Napa and to my dismay October closings are now showing an INCREASE from September prices...



My sample is huge this month, 65 sales so far, so October is probably going to pencil out as a banner month for the RE bulls.</blockquote>


Can you explain how you calculate the index? I looked and it seems that most of the house have huge price decrease from 2006.</blockquote>


Read back on this thread WPR. The CS index calc is described multiple times...



Home prices in Irvine have been stuck at mid 2004 rollback levels for many months now.
 
Added 5-6 new escrows today. It has been very slow lately. Averaging only one or so properties per day over the last 10 days.



Also, found six places that have gone back active, i.e. fallen out of escrow, since I last checked my list around two weeks ago...
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1225251314]IPO,



Was wondering what was the final price on 120 Spanish Lace in Woodbury? It went into escrow on 9/13/08. Inquiring minds want to know :-)</blockquote>


Still shows as pending sale, i.e. not closed yet, in MLS...
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1225254837]IPO, FYI 50 windingway went into escrow couple days ago...</blockquote>


I don't have that on my searches anywhere... Do you have the MLS #? I don't see it on Redfin either.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225255142][quote author="irvine123" date=1225254837]IPO, FYI 50 windingway went into escrow couple days ago...</blockquote>


I don't have that on my searches anywhere... Do you have the MLS #? I don't see it on Redfin either.</blockquote>


S547214



Pre-emptively, the last sale for this was $1,360,000 on 6/23/06.



$1,223,600 initially loaned against it.

an additional $100K tacked on 7/23/07 as an apparent HELOC.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1225255472][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225255142][quote author="irvine123" date=1225254837]IPO, FYI 50 windingway went into escrow couple days ago...</blockquote>


I don't have that on my searches anywhere... Do you have the MLS #? I don't see it on Redfin either.</blockquote>


S547214



Pre-emptively, the last sale for this was $1,360,000 on 6/23/06.



$1,223,600 initially loaned against it.

an additional $100K tacked on 7/23/07 as an apparent HELOC.</blockquote>


?



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/50wind.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1223113334][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1223106857][quote author="IACRenter" date=1223106526]Things are heating up in Northpark: I was considering placing an offer on <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Sebastian-92602/home/5812777">28 Sebastian (MLS S549133)</a> but my agent said they got multilple offers and accepted one above asking price of $849K. Only a few days on the market and sold. MLS for the property still says active but they must have not updated yet.



Looking at past comps for a <a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/mendocino_p2.jpg">plan 2 Mendocino</a>, I thought the price was just okay. Apparently the market thinks otherwise. There were a bunch of Asian folks strolling around the place on Wed at the broker preview day.



Another Plan 2 Mendocino at 35 Sebastian (MLS S547518) is Pending Sale--they were asking $914K but their lot seems smaller but interior is more upgraded. If we assume around 5% off list then their final price might be around $868K which maybe closer to the above list offer for 28 Sebastian.</blockquote>
Don't worry, 28 Sebastian and the other same homes will be down around $600k in a few years.</blockquote>


Don't worry. The same thing happened to me when I was looking at 7 Andalucia in Irvine, a buch of Asian folks acting like they were going to make an offer right away. So I called the agent and asked him to let my family see the house and he said he wanted to warn me that there were several people already bidded over the asking price. I said good, he should sell to them and I did not bother to set up an appointment to let my family see this property. As it turns out, this property was not sold right away. The property was still listed on MLS. It was finally sold one or two months later than when the agent told me there were several offers. What a bluff? It took this agent nearly 2 months to find a KC.</blockquote>


28 Sebastian in NP sold for $890K, over $40K above list price. Guess they weren't really lying/bluffing to IACR...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225316799][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1223113334][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1223106857][quote author="IACRenter" date=1223106526]Things are heating up in Northpark: I was considering placing an offer on <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Sebastian-92602/home/5812777">28 Sebastian (MLS S549133)</a> but my agent said they got multilple offers and accepted one above asking price of $849K. Only a few days on the market and sold. MLS for the property still says active but they must have not updated yet.



Looking at past comps for a <a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/mendocino_p2.jpg">plan 2 Mendocino</a>, I thought the price was just okay. Apparently the market thinks otherwise. There were a bunch of Asian folks strolling around the place on Wed at the broker preview day.



Another Plan 2 Mendocino at 35 Sebastian (MLS S547518) is Pending Sale--they were asking $914K but their lot seems smaller but interior is more upgraded. If we assume around 5% off list then their final price might be around $868K which maybe closer to the above list offer for 28 Sebastian.</blockquote>
Don't worry, 28 Sebastian and the other same homes will be down around $600k in a few years.</blockquote>


Don't worry. The same thing happened to me when I was looking at 7 Andalucia in Irvine, a buch of Asian folks acting like they were going to make an offer right away. So I called the agent and asked him to let my family see the house and he said he wanted to warn me that there were several people already bidded over the asking price. I said good, he should sell to them and I did not bother to set up an appointment to let my family see this property. As it turns out, this property was not sold right away. The property was still listed on MLS. It was finally sold one or two months later than when the agent told me there were several offers. What a bluff? It took this agent nearly 2 months to find a KC.</blockquote>


28 Sebastian in NP sold for $890K, over $40K above list price. Guess they weren't really lying/bluffing to IACR...</blockquote>
Maybe not this one, but the other 2 houses were bluffing(56 calavera, 7 andalucia), both said there are multiple bids but it took them a lot longer to sell. But there's always some KCs out there.
 
Regarding 7 Andalucia: we put a bid on this house on the first day it got on the market, and the realtor told our realtor they already had 13 offers on the house. They notified us 5 days later that our offer wasn't accepted. I don't know what it was shown on the MLS as active when it really wasn't really active a couple of days after it got on the MLS, but the truth of the matter is they did get at least two offers and I do believe they got more than just those two.
 
I think it is unlikely that Irvine home prices will see any siginficant drops unless there is a significant price reduction for new construction. With the exception of a few undesirable locations and floorplans, the price of new construction SFRs in Woodbury and Portola Springs have remained steady (i.e. high) since spring of this year. Both buyers and sellers will use the price of new construction as a benchmark for what an Irvine house is "worth." This explains the multiple knife catchers, even in this falling RE market, when a house goes on the market at below new construction prices.
 
Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...
 
[quote author="evening rose" date=1225408300]Regarding 7 Andalucia: we put a bid on this house on the first day it got on the market, and the realtor told our realtor they already had 13 offers on the house. They notified us 5 days later that our offer wasn't accepted. I don't know what it was shown on the MLS as active when it really wasn't really active a couple of days after it got on the MLS, but the truth of the matter is they did get at least two offers and I do believe they got more than just those two.</blockquote>
thanks for the info. I noticed it came back to the market as active and sold 2 months later with a higher price than it was originally listed for. Maybe they used teh $799K to lure in customer but really want toi sell somewhere in the mid $800K.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1225411764]The close on Paso Robles was significantly lower than the ?06 purchase price.

A very good sign that the high end continues moving down.</blockquote>


I think you are wrong about that ten. The high end, at least in NP, is not continuing to move down, it's staying level. It moved down through Feb 2008 and has been stuck since then. The closing price on Paso was effectively higher than 1 Poway that closed back in early April. Paso sold for 20% off peak. 20% off peak was baked in quite some time ago...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1225411109]Couple of old timer escrows recently closed, 15 Bellevue, which was featured on the blog, and 9 Paso Robles in Northpark. They closed high relative to the last couple of months and further pushed up the median and average October closing price.



I am tracking October closing prices <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf"><strong>approximately 1.5% higher</strong></a> than September's...</blockquote>


WOW! $311 sq ft. for nice huge Northpark home? Ten, IPO, why didn't you guys jump on this?
 
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