What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="Roo" date=1227689275][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227688955][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227687151][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Reflecting on your post ten, it amazes me that a numbers guy like yourself ignores closed sales and instead bases market perception on list prices... When you finally buy a place, will you ignore all the comps and just survey list prices to get a handle on the market?</blockquote>


There are a number of different factors I look at and consider before writing an offer.

Closed sales and list prices are among those.

I take market conditions and how motivated the seller is into account as well.

What more do you suggest I consider?</blockquote>


Location, Location, Location!</blockquote>
I thought it was Pergo, Granite, Steel.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227688955][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227687151][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Reflecting on your post ten, it amazes me that a numbers guy like yourself ignores closed sales and instead bases market perception on list prices... When you finally buy a place, will you ignore all the comps and just survey list prices to get a handle on the market?</blockquote>


There are a number of different factors I look at and consider before writing an offer.

Closed sales and list prices are among those.

I take market conditions and how motivated the seller is into account as well.

What more do you suggest I consider?</blockquote>


You might want to also consider the lien/loan status on the property as well as the property tax situation. 2 Malibu was in arrears multiple years on prop taxes up until recently...



2 Malibu is trying to stave off auction so they've likely got an artificially low price out on list so they can collect a viable offer:



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/2malibu.jpg" alt="" />



Like I have said many times before, you don't know why things are listed for what they are, either high or low... List prices don't make the market. Comps do.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227690801]



You might want to also consider the lien/loan status on the property as well as the property tax situation. 2 Malibu was in arrears multiple years on prop taxes up until recently...



2 Malibu is trying to stave off auction so they've likely got an artificially low price out on list so they can collect a viable offer:





Like I have said many times before, you don't know why things are listed for what they are, either high or low... List prices don't make the market. Comps do.</blockquote>




If I were making an offer on it, I would consider it.

Since I?m not, my comment was in reference to the enormous price discrepancy between two very similar homes 2 Malibu and 28 Maywood.



I never said list prices make the market.

The list price is a component I consider when making an offer.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227691652]



If I were making an offer on it, I would consider it.

Since I?m not, my comment was in reference to the enormous price discrepancy between two very similar homes 2 Malibu and 28 Maywood.



I never said list prices make the market.

The list price is a component I consider when making an offer.</blockquote>


Hum... I took your "Meanwhile back in the real world" comment to be suggestive that Malibu's price was more indicative of current market on that size/type of home then the recent closing price of Maywood. Is that not what you were trying to say?
 
Have closings slowed in Irvine?



I just checked CM, and none in the past week. That has never happened in a year.





Or maybe it is the redfin staff cutbacks showing through...though i would have thought that updates were automated.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1227700360]Have closings slowed in Irvine?



I just checked CM, and none in the past week. That has never happened in a year.



Or maybe it is the redfin staff cutbacks showing through...though i would have thought that updates were automated.</blockquote>


Yup. Month-over-month, Irvine has 25-30% less over the same number of days... November is shaping up to be a very slow month in terms of sales, which is weird because there are a ton in escrow still.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227702685][quote author="freedomCM" date=1227700360]Have closings slowed in Irvine?



I just checked CM, and none in the past week. That has never happened in a year.



Or maybe it is the redfin staff cutbacks showing through...though i would have thought that updates were automated.</blockquote>


Yup. Month-over-month, Irvine has 25-30% less over the same number of days... November is shaping up to be a very slow month in terms of sales, which is weird because there are a ton in escrow still.</blockquote>


Could be lenders holding up funding.
 
[quote author="High Gravity" date=1227745991]



Could be lenders holding up funding.</blockquote>


I think folks who bought 2004-2007 are having a hard time putting up listings that put them in the hole (often deeply, for 2006 buys, of course). Buyers, of course, have enough to choose from on the crappier fringes of almost every market in CA that they just go to a worse neighboorhood and pay half the price (and maybe even get an almost-new house). Now that gas is under 2 bucks, the long commutes down the 15 make more economic sense, as well.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1227754177][quote author="High Gravity" date=1227745991]



Could be lenders holding up funding.</blockquote>


I think folks who bought 2004-2007 are having a hard time putting up listings that put them in the hole (often deeply, for 2006 buys, of course).</blockquote>


I agree with that, must be terribly depressing. Also, I think that most of thewm CAN'T since they are too far underwater. Another reason is that they still have a nice little teaser rate so payments are not an issue yet.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697806][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227691652]



If I were making an offer on it, I would consider it.

Since I?m not, my comment was in reference to the enormous price discrepancy between two very similar homes 2 Malibu and 28 Maywood.



I never said list prices make the market.

The list price is a component I consider when making an offer.</blockquote>


Hum... I took your "Meanwhile back in the real world" comment to be suggestive that Malibu's price was more indicative of current market on that size/type of home then the recent closing price of Maywood. Is that not what you were trying to say?</blockquote>


That?s exactly what I mean.

28 Maywood is over priced.

There are better deals out there at lower price points.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227756027][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697806][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227691652]



If I were making an offer on it, I would consider it.

Since I?m not, my comment was in reference to the enormous price discrepancy between two very similar homes 2 Malibu and 28 Maywood.



I never said list prices make the market.

The list price is a component I consider when making an offer.</blockquote>


Hum... I took your "Meanwhile back in the real world" comment to be suggestive that Malibu's price was more indicative of current market on that size/type of home then the recent closing price of Maywood. Is that not what you were trying to say?</blockquote>


That?s exactly what I mean.

28 Maywood is over priced.

There are better deals out there at lower price points.</blockquote>


Uh, if it was over-priced, how did it sell? Pricing is relative. You may think it was overpriced, but obviously someone else did not...
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1227967131]Holidays tend to slow things down. No one likes to buy or sell during chrismahanukwanza... even rentals are scare in certain areas.</blockquote>


But they told me that this year was different!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227943511][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227756027][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227697806][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227691652]



If I were making an offer on it, I would consider it.

Since I?m not, my comment was in reference to the enormous price discrepancy between two very similar homes 2 Malibu and 28 Maywood.



I never said list prices make the market.

The list price is a component I consider when making an offer.</blockquote>


Hum... I took your "Meanwhile back in the real world" comment to be suggestive that Malibu's price was more indicative of current market on that size/type of home then the recent closing price of Maywood. Is that not what you were trying to say?</blockquote>


That?s exactly what I mean.

28 Maywood is over priced.

There are better deals out there at lower price points.</blockquote>


Uh, if it was over-priced, how did it sell? Pricing is relative. You may think it was overpriced, but obviously someone else did not...</blockquote>




<blockquote><strong>IrvineRenter wrote:</strong>



So why are knife catchers being active in a decline? There are two reasons: 1. They believe they are buying at the bottom (foolish but that is what they believe,) and 2. They fear being priced out of another rally. It is the second fear that is self-perpetuating. As you can see from the chart above, the low end has fallen much more than the high end. This is increasing the gap between the move-up tiers. In this circumstance, people who want to move up are seeing their buying power diminishing, and they buy before it diminishes even more. It is the same phenomenon that it witnessed in a price rally, but it is operative in the initial stages of a decline. This is one of the main motivations of knife catchers, and it explains a great deal of the foolish buying we see today.</blockquote>


There are knife catchers out there. Do we have to follow them?
 
First December sale is in the books. Woodbury Cal Pac unit that sold for a 2005 price equivalent...



Update - 2nd December sale, also in Woodbury but this one a 3600sf Mille Fleur, was an even less a rollback. Sold for only 11% less than early 2007 purchase price.
 
i'm assuming not, but are you tracking any sales at the inferno or the plaza towers? i'm still fascinated by them and wonder how they are doing in sales in the latter part of this year. didn't find too much on my own for these stats.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1228315749]i'm assuming not, but are you tracking any sales at the inferno or the plaza towers? i'm still fascinated by them and wonder how they are doing in sales in the latter part of this year. didn't find too much on my own for these stats.</blockquote>


Too much of a pain I have found to get prior sales data on tower units so I don't typically track them...



Scary, this is my 2,000th post here in the forums.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228322209]Scary, this is my 2,000th post here in the forums.</blockquote>


Congrats on 2000 posts. I remember the day I hit 2000, er maybe... not so sure now. When was that again? It seems so long ago.



While 80% of those 2000 posts have been you chopping Deuce's, or IR's head onto another picture, the other 20% has been a great contribution to IHB. So let me (one that really butted heads with you in the beginning), be one of the first people to thank you for your contributions to IHB, especially the pictures. You have been a great addition to IHB, and I am thankful you put up with me to stick around. I'm just not so sure about that ugly dog you dragged in with you (IR2), because once he gets through his plug treatment, I fear his ego will only grow on a per plug basis.



Seriously, thank you for contributing to IHB to make it better. This thread alone shows what a great addition you have been, when you realize it is second only to the headlines thread in the amount of comments.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228322209][quote author="JLegend" date=1228315749]i'm assuming not, but are you tracking any sales at the inferno or the plaza towers? i'm still fascinated by them and wonder how they are doing in sales in the latter part of this year. didn't find too much on my own for these stats.</blockquote>


Too much of a pain I have found to get prior sales data on tower units so I don't typically track them...



Scary, this is my 2,000th post here in the forums.</blockquote>


I have benefited from at least 100 of those posts, so not complaining:-)



CZ
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228322209]



Scary, this is my 2,000th post here in the forums.</blockquote>


You get a triple thanks from me. Knowing how much you analyze the market, your decision to sell and go rent was the single biggest reason we halted our home buying plans (again) this past summer/fall, and decided to go lease a house instead. Can't say thanks enough for your contribution --- and willingness to be so open and honest about what you see in the market. And for an eventual 1st time home buyer, the play by play of your home selling process will prove very valuable --- someday.
 
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