What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Thanks for that awgee. It's exactly that disparity that has further solidified my need to wait this downturn out as the declines slowly move up the price spectrum. This is not the time to sell a condo and buy a bigger place as the price declines have been greater in the condo segment and that chasm appears to be accelerating... </p>

<p>Related to that, I opened up escrow on my refi today. Bought myself three more years of rate security (@ 5.125% interest-only) to see how far we go down. Unless a sweetheart deal comes on a house we really want, we're staying put for at least two years I think. </p>
 
<p>Two closings to report, one in Woodbridge, a pretty deep rollback, and the other in West Irvine, which is getting rocked by REOs:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf</a></p>
 
The Ahern Ct closing is very interesting to me. Its the same model as the 2338 Pieper Ln home that I've been waiting to see the closing price on. A 10% cut off of listing would be very encouraging... I was really interested in the Pieper Ln home but never had the chance to see it before it went to pending status.
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Yeah, I was looking at the Ahern Court #s as well. Pretty significant price cut on it . </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Can you explain what the index# of 238.70 means for that one?</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks, I'm having trouble grasping what the ratio# & index# mean.</p>
 
<p>Hey Doc, have you visited Fairbanks yet?</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1287679">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1287679</a></p>

<p>Got their NOD in March. Amt on the 1st mortgage is $1.378 but I think they have a 2nd with the same lender unfortunately...</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>"Can you explain what the index# of 238.70 means for that one?"</p>

<p>No prob ten. The 238 CS index value is the relation of the most recent sales price to previous purchase price and previous purchase month.</p>

<p>If you compare the 238 to <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/CS_HomePrice_History_032544.xls">this</a>, you will find that we were last at a 238 value back in May 2005. As the average of recent sales is more like 210-211, this means that the rollback on the Ahern place is not nearly as deep as the average. The high-end is holding up better than the lower-end...</p>

<p>If Pieper were to sell at Ahern's 238 index value, it would mean a sales price of around $1.5M since Pieper last sold for $790K back in early 2002. It it were to sell for $1.425M for example, its index value would be 220, suggesting a deeper rollback trend vs. Ahern.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks Ipop!</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Appreciate the link and walking me thru both the interpretation & analysis.</p>

<p>Also, is there a reason why some of the properties listed on your index are colored in blue? Not sure if you were just adding some color to liven it up.</p>

<p>Regarding Fairbanks, can you believe at the end of ’07 they were asking $1.9M</p>
 
I will guess $1.30 closing for 33 triple Leaf...it was updated this afternoon...



25 triple leaf was lowered to $1.5mm just this am...
 
I did see Fairbanks several months ago online, but not in person. I believe it went into escrow and then fell out again, no? I'll be looking at several properties in person probably in May depending on how the market continues to decline.
 
Bunch of places hitting escrow on Thursday and Friday and another falling out:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">IPOPlaya.com</a>



Also some closings to report, most notably for Northpark lovers, 1 Poway. It went for $1.25M, exactly the same price as it did in July 2004.
 
Not seen it now.buying but I'll check into it... Not a zip code I watch closely so if it went straight from active to pending sale, I would have missed it.
 
Another close in Northpark, this one on Rockport. $855K, another mid 2004 rollback, and $100K less than the previous sale on the exact same model that closed in November or December.



I think some of the shine is finally coming off Northpark.
 
From DataQuick via South OC Real Estate Tracker:



median price in Dana Point, zip 92629, is up 42.8% yoy and sales are up 400% yoy



median price in Laguna Niguel, 92677, is up 3.70%
 
From Lansner today:



Deals to buy O.C. existing homes and condos are now above year-ago levels for the first time since Sept. 22, 2005, says the math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo. As of last Thursday, there were 2,285 deals created in the past 30 days, Thomas? definition of demand. That?s 159 better (7%) than a year ago.



Thomas also calculates a ?market time? benchmark showing how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals put in escrow. By this logic, it would take 6.77 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 7.5 months two weeks earlier and near the 6.57 months of a year ago.



Thomas notes: ?Here?s the scoop from the trenches: increased showing activity, increased open house activity, buyers are writing more offers, multiple offers in the lower ranges and significantly more first time buyer activity. And, most of this activity was already in the works prior to the new FHA and conventional loan limits taking root in the marketplace. Buyers have been methodically entering the market since the beginning of the New Year. ?
 
<span style="color: purple;">You heard it here first, folks. EvaL has called the bottom. Buy now, or be priced...nevermind, you guys know the rest!</span>
 
[IPO writes EvaL in square labeled 4/7/08 on the Official Irvine Housing Bottom Pool]



Don't forget EvaL, you have to pick a median price too or your entry will be invalid... :)
 
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