What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p class="MsoNormal">“I built an Access database back then..”</p>

<p class="MsoNormal"> Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">You never cease to amaze me. C’mon man, are you serious?</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">You should have left that stuff in the past along with your Breakfast Club leather jacket, Robo Cop sunglasses, Aqua Velva and “The Fall Guy” t.v. show poster. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">What’s next, let me guess president of the Battlestar Galactica fan club.</p>
 
<p>This thread is pretty fascinating because it has real-time data on escrows in Irvine and from ipoplaya's data it looks like things might be stabilizing after the recent freefall in prices that's well documented in IrvineRenter's blog. Here's my viewpoint as a homeowner who bought in Ventura County in 1989. Back then, SFRs were $300K to $400K in the nice upscale middle class neighborhood I bought into. Then prices stayed flat in that same price range (maybe down a bit in the mid 90s) funtil 2002, 13 years later, around the time of the capital gains tax elimination (you didn't have to buy another house within 2 years) and when interest rates started falling big time. Then the SFRs in my neighborhood went on a price binge, blipping out at $800K to $950K in 2006/2007. Now there are 4 listings out of 178 homes, $765K, $798K, (both 1950 sf) $865K and $929 (both 2400 sf). Probably the two floorplans will sell in the low $700s and low $800s respectively. If so, then the annualized return is only 5% given the 19 year holding period. This isn't an outrageously high return, it's probably just a bit above the inflation rate. It's just like typical investments, they tread water for a long time then skyrocket to another plateau. The prices in my old neighborhood probably overshot for a while in 2006/007 but it seems to me that recent 2008 prices are pretty reasonable and prices might stay around this new "plateau" for another long time. People who bought in the $900s are probably going to be disappointed and underwater for a decade but I don't see a big decline from there, in my old neighborhood. It was a stretch to buy a $300K house 19 years ago with what I made, it's still a stretch to buy a $700K house now, so things don't change, it's always a stretch. It might have been a "too easy" no doc liar loan that caused home prices to blip up to $950K but with normal mortgages the $700K home seems as reasonable to me now as the $300K home seemed to me 19 years ago (the monthly payments are going to be around $2,000 - $2,500 depending on the amount of down payment, remember that 19 years ago my mortgage was 9.5%!)</p>

<p> </p>
 
Don't give Ipop too much credit, if he was a real ubernerd he would have used mySQL instead of that wimpy Microsoft access...



Just another ubernerd wanny be...



We can't all be real nerds IPOP
 
fumbling, I get your point....but I think the biggest problem the RE market is going to face....is how are these people going to qualify to buy (full doc) at these prices, and where will they be getting their 20% down from. I think the REO's are going to pile up and bottleneck the system.
 
<p>LOL alan. I don't think mySQL was around back then, but I might be wrong. We're talking mid 90's...</p>

<p>Got a closing to report for Northpark lovers / watchers. 6 Malibu sold at $1.067M, or $352/sf, just a tad above its November 2004 sale price.</p>

<p>Now ten, if I wasn't a numbers nerd, who would be feeding you all this good data out of the kindness of his heart?! Actually, I used to dig the old Battlestar Galactica from the late 70's. Dirk Benedict was a kickass Lt. Starbuck and always had a great way with the ladies. A great role model IMO.</p>

<p>Oh yeah, another two more escrows as well... We seem to be averaging 2 a day lately.</p>
 
<p>I switched up my Case-Shiller price tracking to PDF format. The html was creating problems for me... It's here now:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf</a></p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">C’mon Ipop don’t take the candy away, pleezee! </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">I’m always thankful and appreciative for the valuable info you provide. I not only started but continue to spearhead the “In Ipop We Trust” campaign. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">If it makes you feel any better; I wore a fanny pack in the past, had a Billy Idol jacket, wore a pink Lacoste shirt (collar up) and rocked Top Gun sunglasses. Are we good now?</p>
 
<p>Ok ten, we're square. I donned the fanny pack in college during my very short-lived pony tail phase. Hung out with too many granola heads I fear... I realized I needed to draw the line at girls who elected not to shave! </p>
 
<p>"ipop, you mean there were girls at your college??? "</p>

<p>Yes indeedy, some rather lovely ones. I did my undergrad and a lowly Cal State in scenic San Luis Obispo, and while the ladies in the Engineering program were a bit on the scary side, once I transferred over to the School of Business, wowzer... </p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Ipop, </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">I feel ya. Other than SC, I really wanted to go to UCSB (Santa Barbara). </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The chicks there are uber-hott. With so many distractions I would’ve been lucky to graduate. SoCal girls are the finest, IMO.</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Went on a football-recruiting trip back east, not only did the weather suck, the girls were mediocre at best. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Did you see 27 Oroville re-listed at $894K, down from $959K?</p>
 
<p>"Did you see 27 Oroville re-listed at $894K, down from $959K?"</p>

<p>I did indeed. Too bad that house is so darn ugly. Oroville is a good location within NP.</p>

<p>19 Walnut Creek just came online. $1.13M WTF price of course. They bought it for $890K back in early 2004. Should be selling in the $900s before too long. I might move on one of these puppies if they'd get down into the $900-950K range. 2700-2800sf is fine for me...</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Yeah, I did see 19 Walnut Creek. That's a nice one. Maybe you'll be able to grab it in that range.</p>

Personally, I like 14 Mar Vista. It’s got great curb appeal and really like the French Country exterior look. Would prefer a little more square footage though, but if the price is right I would move on it.
 
<p>One $1.5M place in Turtle Rock got to contract, while two others fell out of escrow:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>
 
<p><em>(eff consults oc_fliptrack archives)</em></p>

<p>cg2699, your 302 Terra Bella was a flip attempt. It first hit the market in the summer of 2006 at $594k. It eventually disappeared at $569k and popped-up as a $2500/mo rental Feb 07. REO at $515k now, eh?</p>

<p>Yummy yummy schadenfreude!</p>

<p>Nanowest had the best comment: <em>"Why is there a door on the second floor that goes out to a balcony that one person would not fit on.....is this some fancy italian dressing that I don't understand?"</em></p>
 
From Lansner:<p>

<i>"Zillow.com reports that about half of the Orange County homeowners who bought homes last year at the bottom three-fifths of the price spectrum owe more for their mortgage than their home is now worth."</i><p>

If that many folks who purchased in 2007 are upside down, doncha wonder how many who purchase in 2008 will be upside down this time next year?<p>

<i>"At the top end of the pricing spectrum, 17% of last year?s homebuyers are upside down."</i>
 
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