What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
IPOP said "Unfortunately it appears they still can. Guess we need to make more money somehow. "

Ipop, are you fine with paying more than what something is worth(per your judgement)?
 
<p>"Actually, it is when people can't finance it. People cannot truly afford the terms of their financing agreements"</p>

<p>Very true IR. We could afford a whole lot in terms of securing requisite financing and making the payment. We just elect not to stretch ouselves so thin. I wonder if the Average Joe is still stretching after watching people eat a 15-20% loss in less than a year's time? That would be so much worse than stretching to afford during the super hyped buying frenzy of the bubble IMO. At least now, people should know better...</p>
 
<p>"Ipop, are you fine with paying more than what something is worth(per your judgement)?"</p>

<p>I usually try to let the market assign worth Haze being the good capitalist I am. Worth with regards to housing is a complex animal. Houses are worth whatever they are selling for, at least for that moment in time. They'll be worth less and less over the next few years and then be worth more and more down the line likely. Mostly I just try to consider worth in a very personal sense and look at each potential purchase in terms of long-term affordability and the utility it will provide for my family.</p>

<p>That being said, I won't pay more than what something is worth in the moment in time sense, i.e. I won't pay a premium to buy something if it doesn't comp out. I've had a couple of opportunities to do so on counter offers and have declined every time. </p>
 
ipop, this is just a comparison of perspectives for me by the way. It seems like the day you will be able to comp out a deal you will buy.



It is a different story for me. I do not want to pay more than what something is worth in the reasonableness sense. Some parameters of that reasonableness includes the GRM and a reasonable rate of appreciation per inflation standards over the years. I know that these measures have been expounded on this site very often and I also know that the market is way above some of these measures i.e. at least 30-40 percent by some estimates. I guess for me it the answer is somewhere half way like another 20 percent down from where we are at now in terms of average price per sq foot, which ould be more like 260-280 bucks a sq foot for a good home that is not subject to REO/short sale/foreclosure issues. That way I am paying credence to the market reality yet not waiting too long for buying.
 
<p>I am mostly with you Haze. As a caveat to my buying decision dynamic, I likely would not buy a house if I thought that at bottom I would be below an 80% LTV. For example, I look at some $1M properties today and can envision them being worth $750-800K at bottom. My problem is that for a $1M purchase, I will likely need to finance $600-650K depending on how much equity I am able to pull out of my place. I don't want to have a mortgage balance of $650Kish if my house will be worth less than $800K in a few years. I'd want to always be in a position to qualify for a prime should an opportunity arise to save on interest expense...</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>"What do you think 70 Rockport sells for? They’re asking $934K."</p>

<p>Absolutely below the $900K mark on Rockport ten. The place on Dinuba was the same model and that sold for $955K late last year. It was in a MUCH better location as well. I am thinking $889K for Rockport. You over or under?</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">I was thinking between $890-$885K for Rockport, which is very close to your number. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">So it looks like we push on this one.</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Quite frankly, at this point, I’ll be very happy to see one of these break below the $900K floor. In turn, hopefully this will mean the larger homes in Northpark will start to come down as well. Also, didn't know about Dinuba, thanks for pointing it out.</p>
 
<p>I don't like the plan on 70 Rockport very much. Walked it on Dinuba. Small kitchen, small family room, and very small secondary bedrooms. 70 Rockport appears to have cheap builder standard almost everything. Very little in terms of upgrades. Even if I liked that plan, I'd only pay $800K or so to leave cash to pimp it out.</p>
 
<p>Interesting listing back on the market. 2 Morning Dove.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1535031">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1535031</a></p>

<p>From Ipop's tracker it just closed at $795k on an $849k listing. Now back at $885k? This will be an impressive flip if it is done.</p>
 
<p><em>"Latest home-selling stats from DataQuick for 22 business days ended Feb. 22 show that only four O.C. ZIPs out of 83 with buying activity above the year-ago period: Orange 92867; Villa Park 92861; Huntington Beach 92647 and Dana Point 92624. All told, those four ZIPs had just 65 sales."</em></p>

<p>DataQuick must be screwed up because Ipop says escrow openings and sales in Irvine are increasing. DataQuick is so screwed up, it shows every zip in Irvine as having year over year decreased sales and only one zip, 92606, as having an increased median price, the other seven Irvine zips as having decreased median prices. That can not be correct. Someone needs to call DataQuick and set them straight.</p>
 
maybe the increase of single family sales were off set by the larger amount of decrease in attached / condo sales? that is the only reason I can think of. About half of the inventory in Irvine are attached / condo.



Awgee, you are being sarcastic??
 
<p><strong><em>Awgee, you are being sarcastic??</em></strong> </p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f112/kellycalamity/pics%20section/05_sarcastic.jpg" /></p>
 
<p>"Awgee, you are being sarcastic??"</p>

<p>Of course he is 123. awgee is a big ole super bear. He'd won't believe in a housing bounce until Lansner calls it.</p>
 
I know he is super duper bear. However, the question he asked is very valid.



IPOPLAYA, what is your take on the apparent disconnect between Dataquick and your research?
 
<p>What awgee failed to mention was that in those 22 days ended February 22nd, there were 142 sales in Irvine. For all of January there were 135... Year over year comparisons are snazzy but that isn't what I care about. Last year at this time prices were barely moving down and people hadn't even realized the bubble was bursting. </p>

<p>Hum, let's see, on Feb 22 we had less inventory in Irvine on the market vs. the end of January and the pace of sales was essentially the same or a smidge faster. Sounds like a bounce to me, likely a dead cat one with mortgage rates moving up so much lately from the late January lows, but a bounce nonetheless.</p>

<p>I think March numbers could continue to be strong as they relate to Jan/Feb and more importantly inventory. I'm hoping higher mortgage rates kills a bunch of escrows and inventory starts to balloon.</p>
 
<p>30 year rate is at 8% right now for Jumbo (bank direct, not via brokers)...that will for sure kill more than a bunch of escrow unless those folks have enough equity to do convention loan at or below $729K, which started on Thursday. The wild card for those homes under $1.5 million currently in escrow is what is the avg. down those folks are putting up. If most of them are move up buyers with cash made previous bubbles, then many of them might be able to go convention loans, which is not that high. If they only have the mins. down of 20%, then likely they will cancel the escrow and wait on the sideline. The rate will bounc around and we have seen that in the past three months. </p>

<p> </p>
 
Sarcastic? I am confused. Ipop says home sales and prices are increasing and DataQuick says they are decreasing, so I am confused. But, I am a bit more clear now. Ipop says year over year sales are snazzy, but they are not what he cares about. It appears DataQuick is not necessarily wrong, more like DataQuick just does not know what is important.
 
<p>Ipop says sales are increasing from the stagnation that occurred in late 2007, not from the pre credit bust months in early 2007, but you already knew that awgee. </p>

<p>I'd be one stupid and brave soul to declare sales are up from arguably the tail end of bubble buying in early 2007... People who bought in early 2007 will probably be the worst off in terms of losers so comparing year-over-year stats isn't useful to me since the paradigm appears to have shifted quite a bit. IMO it's a whole different ballgame now vs. early 2007.</p>

<p>It's mostly a moot point anyway as the pace of Irvine escrow activity appears to be slowing. In my search spec, 48 places got into escrow from 1/15 to 2/15. From 2/15 to now, it's been half as many. Looks like it will just be a short-lived, rate-induced, pent-up demand driven rally. Jumbo rates well north of 7% have got to take the wind out of sails.</p>
 
<p><em>"Ipop says sales are increasing from the stagnation that occurred in late 2007, not from the pre credit bust months in early 2007, but you already knew that awgee."</em></p>

<p>Ipop, dude - You give me way too much credit. Not only did I not know that, but even now I am unsure of what you are talking about. Which, by the way is not unusual for me. I can be a bit slow.</p>

<p>But, I will reead what you wrote and I will figure it out. That also is not unusual for me, as I am just as persistant as I am slow.</p>
 
"It appears DataQuick is not necessarily wrong, more like DataQuick just does not know what is important."



Oh, I see. It appears awgee is not necessarily confused, more like awgee just knows what is most important to everyone when they are deciding when to buy a home.



BTW, I *am* being sarcastic. :)
 
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