What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>ipop,





I expect the job losses today's report to shake up realtors and sellers from their 2005 bubble dream, and <strong>start reducing prices fast, prices are still too high</strong> in the areas that you are monitoring, in all the listings if they bought before or around 2002 they demand 100% price increase, no less.








</p>
 
Rocker,





It would make sense of realtors to start reducing prices fast, but it also made sense for them to do this 6 months ago and they never did.
 
Encouraging close in Northpark Square. $920K for over 3000sf. Those people trying to get high $800s for 2600sf 3-story jobs are hurtin...
 
<p><em>"It would make sense of realtors to start reducing prices fast, but it also made sense for them to do this 6 months ago and they never did."</em></p>

<p>I think that should be "sellers start reducing prices". Realtors don't set the prices as much as the sellers do.</p>

<p>I only wish realtors had as much power as some folks believe they do.</p>

<p>Regards</p>
 
xsocal is spot on IMO. For all the offers we've put in, its been the sellers that didn't want to drop it down... No way were the realtors going, "hey, don't take this one, I can get you more..."
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Too bad, 1 Poway is a very beautiful house. We’ll have to see where it closes. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Thus far the high-end seems to be holding up in Northpark. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Northwood Pointe is not looking any better either.</p>

<p>There’s 42 Clear Creek at $1.399M and 14 Arborwood at $1.699M. </p>

<p />
 
<p>Yeah ten, there is a massive amount of $1.2-1.7M inventory on the market and seemingly more coming everyday. No one seems to be that interested in dropping prices, but I expect that will have to change soon with the number of big nice homes available today...</p>

<p>Updated a number of closing prices and found one lonely escrow I missed:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">http://www.ipoplaya.com/</a></p>
 
Thanks for the site ipop....just curious why you've stopped showing the percentage lost in the far right column ? I like to see that !
 
<p>Got a couple of new sales prices below list I just added Troop. </p>

<p>Place in Harvard Square asking $989K took $920K (sub $300/sf) and 24 Atlanta took 8.5% less than list to sell...</p>
 
<p>From Lanser:</p>

<p>Market watcher Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo, in his biweekly home-inventory report, notes …</p>

<p>Every two weeks Thomas calculates “market time,” a benchmark of how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of last Thursday, it would take 8.14 months for buyers to gobble up all homes listed for sale at the current pace of deals vs. 8.46 months two weeks earlier and vs. 5.26 months a year ago.</p>

<p>Last Thursday’s “market time” is the lowest since late July. A key reason: the latest count deals in escrow of 1,893 is up 90% vs. Jan. 19’s wintertime low. Here’s how the O.C. market inventory looks, in number of listings and deals in the works in the pats 30 days plus Thomas’ market time now, two weeks earlier and a year ago, for key slices:</p>

<p>Slice Listed Deals Months 2 wk. ago Yr. ago


All O.C. 15,412 1,893 8.14 8.46 5.26


•$0-$500k 6,875 940 7.31 7.36 4.85


•$500-750k 4,167 547 7.62 8.21 4.65


•$750k-1m 1,750 210 8.33 9.61 5.64


•$1-1.5m 1,184 106 11.17 10.74 5.88


•$1.5-2m 654 58 11.28 11.54 6.46


•$2-4m 761 47 16.19 15.81 9.34


•$4m+ 253 14 18.07 18.69 14.12


</p>
 
1) Last year at this time the number was 5.26


2) Now it is 8.14 (combination of less sales and more inventory)


3) Last year prices in OC fell 18% (14% nominal), but 50% of these price decreases probably came when "market time" was greater than 8 during September - November. Declines during 2007 when market time was between 5-8 months were typically 0.5-1.0% per month


4) Kinda cool but wish it was worse/faster
 
Ipop, do you know if Steve's numbers are archived anywhere? It would be interesting to hold those numbers up next to the various prices indices and see if we could spot any correlation.
 
<p>I can't believe this just got into escrow... It is one ugly house, at least from the outside.</p>

<p><img height="300" alt="I can't believe this just went into escrow... Man it is one ugly house!" width="400" src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/46/bigphoto/814/S517814_1.jpg" /></p>
 
<p>"Ipop, do you know if Steve's numbers are archived anywhere? It would be interesting to hold those numbers up next to the various prices indices and see if we could spot any correlation."</p>

<p>Yes, they are archived on Lansner to a degree. Here are the numbers going back to early last year:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/thomasinv.htm">http://www.ipoplaya.com/thomasinv.htm</a></p>

<p>Our "market time" number has fallen back to levels seen last April/May when according to Case-Shiller, prices were falling around .50% per month. If there is a correlation, I'd expect to see the drops per Case-Shiller leveling off in January and February. Will be interesting to find out...</p>
 
<p>Busy few days with regards to home buying... Found three more escrows in the midday MLS update:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>

<p>One of the IHB-featured properties got into escrow:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/04/already-gone/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/04/already-gone/</a></p>

<p>Of note in the comments re: this property is IPO's current market valuation:</p>

<p><em>"Based off the transactions this summer, which would have had this property in the low $800K range, it is probably worth $700-725K in today’s market."</em></p>
 
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