What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
And as long as you are "keeping it real", here are some more real questions I asked you, but you never answered:<p>

<i>"Did you notice awgee that the sales differential as a percent of average sales for the month has been improving since the summer? Will you do a similar post come this August and September when sales volumes are actually up year-over-year?"</i><p>



Please excuse me for being dense, but what is "the sales differential as a percent of average sales for the month"?<p>



Will I do a similar post of what? The post I did previously where I copied the info from Lansners blog?<p>



<i>"That's a 41% drop in transaction volume and a 44% decline in dollars flowing through the broker-based network.



The average sales price was $705,143 in January, down 5% in a year."</i><p>



I will if you want me to and if it is published again. I won't promise to figure it out myself though.<p>



If I am reading you correctly, you think home sales will increase? Do you think the current problems in the credit markets will have any effect on home sales for the next few months? Will there be any more problems in the credit markets? Or are there really even any problems now?<p>
 
<i>"Sales and short-term home price movements."</i><p>

Does your research tell you sales will increase and short term price movements will increase? Just in Irvine, or all of OC? Or Ca? Or the whole US?
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Hey Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Nice call on Parma, it was closer to your number than mine, but not by much.So, it looks like we’re all square. Yeah, I was also surprised with the fast close as well. </p>

However, just like the Purple and Gold yesterday, I’m looking to win this one in OT. I’ve got 2 New Market closing at $495K. Also, looks like there’s some competition on Sunnyvale, with 8 Sunnyvale hitting the market. You may be in luck this time, I think this will force 16 Sunnyvale to cut their price below the $1.1M mark.
 
Nellie Gail home seller who went through 40 open houses over a 1 1/2-year period without a single offer finally sold his house Saturday during an auction that drew five bidders, including one online, his agent said. But Paul Beyer, the owner of the five-bedroom, Mediterranean-style house in the Laguna Hills enclave (pictured right), ended up accepting nearly $900,000 less than his original asking price of $2.09 million.



http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/02/auction-raises-12-million-for-nellie-gail-house/



Nellie Gail down to $1.2M



Ipop.. time to move.....
 
<p>Vintage in Woodbury is in escrow. Updated a closing price or two as well...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>
 
<p>Vintage at $1,169 is inline with the recent Villa Rose builder price after taking into consideration of yard and window treatment. That is the Rosemore track by Lennar, very similar to Villa Rose with similar standard features.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
wow awgee, that's a lot of questions. I'll answer what I can right now although IPO has a nasty head cold and is having to dope up on Tylenol Cold and Sinus... I feel like crap.

<p>"If I am reading you correctly, you think home sales will increase?"</p>

<p>Yes, the pace of home sales in Irvine appears to be accelerating.</p>

<p>"Do you think the current problems in the credit markets will have any effect on home sales for the next few months?"</p>

<p>No, not much. More Irvine buyers appear willing to purchase and seem to be able to get qualified and funded on loans...</p>

<p>"Will there be any more problems in the credit markets? Or are there really even any problems now?"</p>

<p>Yes and yes.</p>

<p>"If you are quoting Steve Thomas, you must have some opinion. Or why were you quoting him? "</p>

<p>Don't know if it qualifies as an opinion, but ole Steve appears to think that the sales pace has picked up materially of late. At least in terms of Irvine, I'd have to agree with him.</p>

<p>"Does your research tell you sales will increase and short term price movements will increase? Just in Irvine, or all of OC? Or Ca? Or the whole US?"</p>

<p>I don't watch all of OC or all of the US, so I have no opinion on that. I think the pace of home price declines in Irvine has slowed and will slow in the short-term. Irvine needs much more inventory or many fewer sales for home prices to fall at the clip they were doing late last year...</p>

<p>Back to sippin' my Airborne.</p>
 
<p>"However, just like the Purple and Gold yesterday, I’m looking to win this one in OT. I’ve got 2 New Market closing at $495K."</p>

<p>Yeah ten, great game yesterday. If Kobe can make a friggin' free throw, that one gets salted away in regulation. How about Sasha getting big burn guarding JK?! Who knew he was going to be the stopper on the perimeter?!</p>

<p>You're gonna take a beating on New Market. I think you are probably 10% light...</p>

<p>How about Vintage? I'm going for $1.085M on that one.</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Let's see about my New Market prediction. That neighborhood is full of competing square footage and floor plans, most of which is under $500K. Three alone are located on Sapphire, so hopefully this buyer did their homework.</p>

I think your number for Vintage is accurate.
 
<p>"Nice to see Woodbury tanking, I like 46 Logan over there but not for $1.2M"</p>

<p>46 Logan just got some competition... 54 Logan just hit the market. Same plan I believe. If Vintage took a big discount, all hell's is going to break loose there.</p>

<p>"Also, looks like there’s some competition on Sunnyvale, with 8 Sunnyvale hitting the market."</p>

<p>I just saw the pics of 8 Sunnyvale. Disappointed. Travertined the downstairs out... Sad. What I don't get is why people unload big bucks to put travertine on their floor and accent it with the crappy builder-standard 3.5" 711 MDF baseboard. So stupid... </p>

<p>I do like the floor plan on those Saratoga plan 3's though. Decent-sized secondary bedrooms, nice loft, good size downstairs.</p>
 
46 Logan is going for 1.2M, what I dont understand is why someone doesn't buy a Villa Rosa plan 1 (similar size?) and spend 100K on upgrades. Wouldn't they still have 100K left over and the house exactly in their taste rather than someone else's taste?
 
<p>The Logan properties and Vintage, which recently hit escrow, are more like the Villa Rosa plan 2 IMO. They are a bit smaller, but similar floorplan. In terms of raw square footage, these Rosemoors are between the plan 1 and plan 2 Villa Rosa units.</p>

<p>If you consider Lennar is selling the VR plan 2's for what, $1.08M, and then you need to add landscaping, window treatments, etc. on top of that, $1.1M or even a bit less is a better deal than the plan 2 VR units. I think all these Rosemoors will cut into Lennar's ability to sell the VR places. Might help push Lennar on pricing a bit actually if these start comping closer to $1M or in the high $900K range.</p>
 
<p>Oh crap, I just realized I know the owners of 54 Logan... Thought that address sounded familiar. Husband and wife both formerly worked for mortgage companies. </p>
 
i don't like any of the rosemores. I visited the model home when they were still open. Unlike the plan 2 and 3 of Villa Rose, Rosemore plans feels cramped.
 
<p>I can't see how these Rosemoors can break even on 2005 prices. Figure they spent $1M at purchase, popped $30-40K into landscaping and $10K into shutters and such. Puts them around $1.05M at 2005 prices. How in the world can they get that if everything else is going for 2004 figures? Based on the recent closing price of Twiggs, I'd only pay $950-975K or so for one of these Rosemoor plan 3's... </p>
 
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