nosuchreality
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
JIMHO, the chronic pissing match is well into the Stalkerish zone.
What the "Dow" is happening?
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
JIMHO, the chronic pissing match is well into the Stalkerish zone.
The intent? Don?t you see what they are doing? Trying to mislead people. Lies after lies or don?t give all the facts/spin the story to fit their message. Just like the middle tax break before the midterms that never happened. I?m sorry I?m going to call it out.
Geez...I have seen better logic coming from a cultist.
this whole thread is "backsplaining". i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment
fed-induced recession is real and we got a taste of their cavalier style last month. no more rate increases and the economy will be off like a rocket this year. right or wrong?
Yup...Fed induced.
https://www.aei.org/publication/cbo-projects-modest-growth-and-wide-deficits/
Yeah , I guess you are one of those ppl who had blinders on and missed my call to sell equities in August and then buy them again on Christmas Eve . Wearing that MAGA hat too tight can sometimes make vision difficult .
Again, I don't think that was the focal point of SGIP's post.
Let's get back to it... do you think interest rates... or the Dow... are strongly tied to morning announcements from the government? I do think there is some influence but it's usually short term and there are other factors that are more influential.
I'll provide a little info from what I've personally experienced. In Sept-Nov, I had 5 buyers go "on hold" because rates were getting towards 5% and prices were falling. Within the past few weeks, 4 of those buyers re-activated their home search and I got 2 of them into escrow. When I asked them why they are back in the home search they said that the combo of lower rates and prices made them feel a lot more comfy. That being said, we made initial offers of 5-8% below the listing price and negotiated higher. Also, a few of the home builders told me that they've seen sales pick up a bit since the past few weeks too also because of the lower rates.
JIMHO, the chronic pissing match is well into the Stalkerish zone.
irvinehomeowner said:
The intent? Don?t you see what they are doing? Trying to mislead people. Lies after lies or don?t give all the facts/spin the story to fit their message. Just like the middle tax break before the midterms that never happened. I?m sorry I?m going to call it out.
I am not a housing expert and I always defer to domain specialists like usc , sgip, cv, eyephone, iho , Mety, etc that have far more micro level color than I do - I attempt to learn from all of the comments they post
What I have a good sense for based on my own knowledge, job experience and how asset prices move , is the macro data and ?beta ? ... hence my calls re interest rates and equity markets , munis, and tresury bonds, junk bonds , which if you have been following me carefully ( and not blindly attacking like some of the maga crowd does) , you should have made decent returns
Now back on housing ? I have been following the beta rally in home builders and coupled with the super dovish fed which will give another much needed support to the economy , is indicating something re housing market that should not be ignored. My sense is builders are now heavily motivated to cut prices and move inventory which should lead to a volume pickup which will more than offset the price drop to make up better earnings growth
Again, just saying it like it is . I don?t do calendar year or point in time forecasts as that is not a practically useful exercise from a personal finance perspective.
What I have a good sense for based on my own knowledge, job experience and how asset prices move , is the macro data and ?beta ? ... hence my calls re interest rates and equity markets , munis, and tresury bonds, junk bonds , which if you have been following me carefully ( and not blindly attacking like some of the maga crowd does) , you should have made decent returns
Now back on housing ? I have been following the beta rally in home builders and coupled with the super dovish fed which will give another much needed support to the economy , is indicating something re housing market that should not be ignored. My sense is builders are now heavily motivated to cut prices and move inventory which should lead to a volume pickup which will more than offset the price drop to make up better earnings growth
Again, just saying it like it is . I don?t do calendar year or point in time forecasts as that is not a practically useful exercise from a personal finance perspective.
let's recap:
- trump calls out fed to stop raising rates
- fed raises rates anyway to spite trump
- market falls
- fed takes beating from everyone for stupid policy
- fed backs off on rates and aggressive outlook
- best january gains in decades
moral of the story? trust your president, he knows what's best for you!
*cue forum experts poo pooing trump*
- trump calls out fed to stop raising rates
- fed raises rates anyway to spite trump
- market falls
- fed takes beating from everyone for stupid policy
- fed backs off on rates and aggressive outlook
- best january gains in decades
moral of the story? trust your president, he knows what's best for you!
*cue forum experts poo pooing trump*
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kings said:
Geez...I have seen better logic coming from a cultist.
fortune11 said:
this whole thread is "backsplaining". i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment
fed-induced recession is real and we got a taste of their cavalier style last month. no more rate increases and the economy will be off like a rocket this year. right or wrong?Irvinecommuter
New member
Kings said:fortune11 said:
this whole thread is "backsplaining". i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment
Yup...Fed induced.
https://www.aei.org/publication/cbo-projects-modest-growth-and-wide-deficits/
Kings said:fortune11 said:
this whole thread is "backsplaining". i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment
Yeah , I guess you are one of those ppl who had blinders on and missed my call to sell equities in August and then buy them again on Christmas Eve . Wearing that MAGA hat too tight can sometimes make vision difficult .
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Again, I don't think that was the focal point of SGIP's post.
Let's get back to it... do you think interest rates... or the Dow... are strongly tied to morning announcements from the government? I do think there is some influence but it's usually short term and there are other factors that are more influential.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
I'll provide a little info from what I've personally experienced. In Sept-Nov, I had 5 buyers go "on hold" because rates were getting towards 5% and prices were falling. Within the past few weeks, 4 of those buyers re-activated their home search and I got 2 of them into escrow. When I asked them why they are back in the home search they said that the combo of lower rates and prices made them feel a lot more comfy. That being said, we made initial offers of 5-8% below the listing price and negotiated higher. Also, a few of the home builders told me that they've seen sales pick up a bit since the past few weeks too also because of the lower rates.
The recent posts timeline is again getting polluted w maga nonsense
I am unlikely to post as frequently here, but a few last tips -- I am booking some profits in SPY this week and next as targets are hit . Don't chase this rally beyond 2750 ... keep the fixed income stuff though (junk bonds, muni etc).
I am unlikely to post as frequently here, but a few last tips -- I am booking some profits in SPY this week and next as targets are hit . Don't chase this rally beyond 2750 ... keep the fixed income stuff though (junk bonds, muni etc).
Posting this for many of you who care, haters can ignore ?
Remember my call not to chase this equity rally much beyond 2750. And to stay in fixed income , especially intermediate treasuries (when they were 3 percent plus) high yield / junk and muni bonds.
The fixed income trade should have worked out fantastically well in terms of total return and income for those who did
But now while you can keep your munis etc , maybe time to lighten up on treasuries and move into 1y breakable CDs or a high yielding savings act
Only reason to hold treasuries now would be if recession probability is more than 50 percent - make your own judgement call there . Remember market is NOW pricing in Fed rate cuts !!!
As to stock indices, I was already out a little above 2750 , now I am waiting to see further evidence of a bottom in earnings before I decide to get back in . Until then , not touching the indices.
Remember my call not to chase this equity rally much beyond 2750. And to stay in fixed income , especially intermediate treasuries (when they were 3 percent plus) high yield / junk and muni bonds.
The fixed income trade should have worked out fantastically well in terms of total return and income for those who did
But now while you can keep your munis etc , maybe time to lighten up on treasuries and move into 1y breakable CDs or a high yielding savings act
Only reason to hold treasuries now would be if recession probability is more than 50 percent - make your own judgement call there . Remember market is NOW pricing in Fed rate cuts !!!
As to stock indices, I was already out a little above 2750 , now I am waiting to see further evidence of a bottom in earnings before I decide to get back in . Until then , not touching the indices.
Irvinecommuter
New member
You know the market is irrational when it believes Trump/Steven Munchin
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/us-markets-as-higher-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-kick-in.html
qwerty
Well-known member
This another chance to buy. The world was coming to end in q418, markets were down about 20%, four/five months later back at all time highs. Just keep buying S&P etfs and you will make easy money.
Fed will never raise rates again. Mortgage rates will stay in current range for a long time, may even go down. If things start to get bleak with economic numbers fed may actually cut rates and markets will just go up.
The market is the only game in town if you want to make more than 2-3%.
Fed will never raise rates again. Mortgage rates will stay in current range for a long time, may even go down. If things start to get bleak with economic numbers fed may actually cut rates and markets will just go up.
The market is the only game in town if you want to make more than 2-3%.
