Irvinecommuter
New member
Panda said:
Very nice. I think I'm going to stick with the 3-month with a 2.4% yield.
What the "Dow" is happening?
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Very nice. I think I'm going to stick with the 3-month with a 2.4% yield.
Yes , and I don?t disagree w you on that point ? shutdown is a bad, and really dumb and stupid thing especially for a country like ours .
But the question I am trying to answer for our audience here is what will it take to turn a 20 percent correction in the s&p around ? What will help us make more $$ ? And the shutdown is a minor factor from purely that angle .
Trust me they are not getting paid now. They will get paid later. What do they do when they do when they pay their rent or buy food? (I?m assuming that?s on the back of their mind when some are working. Keep in mind not all of them are working.)
This is coming from a guy who watches F News
When the state wasn't paying during shutdowns, nurses were not being paid at UCI and they worked the same as when they were getting paid.
Now maybe there is some study I don't know of that shows there were adverse patient outcomes due to nurses slacking off because they were not getting paid, please provide a link so I can read it.
When someone tried to recruit me to work extra hours at UCI, she told me...? keep in mind we don't get paid on time during budget shut downs.
Great...that's going to be really good for them when they have to pay bills this month.
The nurses do not go on strike. They work for free (until the budget is fixed) since they work for the government. It might be hard for you to think of nurses not getting paid at UCI since it's been many years since the state had a budget issue where they weren't paying state workers.
If they went on strike it would be their option whether they would cross the picket line and get paid. A budget shut down is not.
Should they go on strike, they can always work at another hospital for money. If they worked at UCI it was for no money till the state fixed the budget.
Big diff between a nurse on strike (which is kinda rare here in So Cal cuz the only real union is Kaiser) and a budget shut down.
Very nice. I think I'm going to stick with the 3-month with a 2.4% yield.
sgip
Well-known member
Marmott - as with all rate quotes it's "context, context, context" and "YMMV".
The Average Rate data you see through Mortgage News Daily is a nice general view, but don't take into account the dozens of variables that go into a deliverable refinance rate. That said, if you've got a healthy loan to value position, a high FICO, and a strong banking relationship with one of the biggies, you could see a great refinance opportunity coming soon. All this is dependent upon the vintage of your current mortgage.
Anyone in the pre Q2 2018 vintage mortgage arena closed in the upper 3's fixed and mid 3's ARM. These loans for the most part cannot be refinanced in this present rate environment. If you have a 2018 Q3 to Q4 closed loan, it's time to call and see what's possible. Most borrowers closed in the mid to upper 4's fixed and high 3's with ARM loans during that time period. Most lenders are .25 to .50 lower for little to no cost.
I can't stand lenders who push "NOWS THE TIME BECAUSE RATES WILL NEVER BE THIS LOW AGAIN" as a motivator to refinance. Bearing this in mind, there is no clear direction for rates over the next 6-8 months. The Fed might cut rates or indicate an extended pause, unexpectedly drawing cash back out of mortgage backed securities and into stocks. Wild swings, up and down, are the norm and it's possible to anticipate one thing, yet get something else altogether.
Another concern would be property values. If you bought with 80% Loan To Value financing in August, today that might be an 82% loan to value deal. By March it could be an 85% loan to value deal, making a refinance than ever to transact effectively. Don't be shocked if your refinance appraisal does not come in as high as you might have expected.
If the refinance deal makes sense now, take the bird in hand and don't wait for a deal that might turn out to be more of a vapor, a mirage, that has come and gone before you know it.
My .02c
The Average Rate data you see through Mortgage News Daily is a nice general view, but don't take into account the dozens of variables that go into a deliverable refinance rate. That said, if you've got a healthy loan to value position, a high FICO, and a strong banking relationship with one of the biggies, you could see a great refinance opportunity coming soon. All this is dependent upon the vintage of your current mortgage.
Anyone in the pre Q2 2018 vintage mortgage arena closed in the upper 3's fixed and mid 3's ARM. These loans for the most part cannot be refinanced in this present rate environment. If you have a 2018 Q3 to Q4 closed loan, it's time to call and see what's possible. Most borrowers closed in the mid to upper 4's fixed and high 3's with ARM loans during that time period. Most lenders are .25 to .50 lower for little to no cost.
I can't stand lenders who push "NOWS THE TIME BECAUSE RATES WILL NEVER BE THIS LOW AGAIN" as a motivator to refinance. Bearing this in mind, there is no clear direction for rates over the next 6-8 months. The Fed might cut rates or indicate an extended pause, unexpectedly drawing cash back out of mortgage backed securities and into stocks. Wild swings, up and down, are the norm and it's possible to anticipate one thing, yet get something else altogether.
Another concern would be property values. If you bought with 80% Loan To Value financing in August, today that might be an 82% loan to value deal. By March it could be an 85% loan to value deal, making a refinance than ever to transact effectively. Don't be shocked if your refinance appraisal does not come in as high as you might have expected.
If the refinance deal makes sense now, take the bird in hand and don't wait for a deal that might turn out to be more of a vapor, a mirage, that has come and gone before you know it.
My .02c
Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today
Maybe this is the wrong thread for this ? but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence ? you need to also be thinking ...
Think of this scenario ? fed turns dovish on rates ? trump calls ceasefire w Chiina ? pboc keeps cutting rates ? semi stocks stabilize ? s&p hits 15 percents from here ...
Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does ? you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself
Maybe this is the wrong thread for this ? but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence ? you need to also be thinking ...
Think of this scenario ? fed turns dovish on rates ? trump calls ceasefire w Chiina ? pboc keeps cutting rates ? semi stocks stabilize ? s&p hits 15 percents from here ...
Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does ? you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself
sgip
Well-known member
Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:
5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government, Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)
6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)
9:00 AM ?????
This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.
My .02c
5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government, Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)
6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)
9:00 AM ?????
This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.
My .02c
It doesn?t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.
Why don?t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank ?will be patient? as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/
3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.
GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee
Why don?t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank ?will be patient? as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/
3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.
GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee
Soylent Green Is People said:
eyephone said:
Yes , and I don?t disagree w you on that point ? shutdown is a bad, and really dumb and stupid thing especially for a country like ours .
But the question I am trying to answer for our audience here is what will it take to turn a 20 percent correction in the s&p around ? What will help us make more $$ ? And the shutdown is a minor factor from purely that angle .
It?s not only dumb, but safety might possibly be an issue. Someone working that is not getting paid (basically working do free) is probably not going to work the same.
For example. Do you expect a typical intern that?s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)
For example. Do you expect a typical intern that?s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)
Kings said:
Trust me they are not getting paid now. They will get paid later. What do they do when they do when they pay their rent or buy food? (I?m assuming that?s on the back of their mind when some are working. Keep in mind not all of them are working.)
This is coming from a guy who watches F News
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
eyephone said:
When the state wasn't paying during shutdowns, nurses were not being paid at UCI and they worked the same as when they were getting paid.
Now maybe there is some study I don't know of that shows there were adverse patient outcomes due to nurses slacking off because they were not getting paid, please provide a link so I can read it.
When someone tried to recruit me to work extra hours at UCI, she told me...? keep in mind we don't get paid on time during budget shut downs.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kings said:
Great...that's going to be really good for them when they have to pay bills this month.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
eyephone said:
The nurses do not go on strike. They work for free (until the budget is fixed) since they work for the government. It might be hard for you to think of nurses not getting paid at UCI since it's been many years since the state had a budget issue where they weren't paying state workers.
If they went on strike it would be their option whether they would cross the picket line and get paid. A budget shut down is not.
Should they go on strike, they can always work at another hospital for money. If they worked at UCI it was for no money till the state fixed the budget.
Big diff between a nurse on strike (which is kinda rare here in So Cal cuz the only real union is Kaiser) and a budget shut down.
I am very mindful of being dismissive of eyephone s viewpoint , even if people may differ on style etc
He was calling for a housing slowdown well before anyone here was, at least to my knowledge ? also unique that housing was an early mover this time around , triggered by higher rates and high prices ? official data proved him right six months later
What I should say is this ? shutdown doesn?t matter to the markets today as opposed to the other factors I outlined (notably fed)
BUT this is because the market is assuming it will remain TEMPORARY and someone will cave
If this thing drags on for months and into second quarter then the second third order effects will start to be felt and as you know , doesn?t take much for the market to price all the bad stuff in a matter of days !
So let?s see how this drama plays out with trump digging his heels in ...
He was calling for a housing slowdown well before anyone here was, at least to my knowledge ? also unique that housing was an early mover this time around , triggered by higher rates and high prices ? official data proved him right six months later
What I should say is this ? shutdown doesn?t matter to the markets today as opposed to the other factors I outlined (notably fed)
BUT this is because the market is assuming it will remain TEMPORARY and someone will cave
If this thing drags on for months and into second quarter then the second third order effects will start to be felt and as you know , doesn?t take much for the market to price all the bad stuff in a matter of days !
So let?s see how this drama plays out with trump digging his heels in ...