What are your predictions for 2008?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
a. Hillary will not be our president



b. Irvine housing will not fall another 10% plus ( on top of the fall up to end of 2007) for most of the nice communities.



c. TIC will not cut price to the level most of IHBers are hoping for.



d. Sky will not fall



e. Biggest news of 2008 will not be predicted by anyone on this blog when we go back to revisit on 12/31/2008.
 
The sky may not fall, but some folks will think that a falling sky would be less painful than the financial turmoil that the US will be experiencing.
 
Trooper, Hopefully we are on the same planet. Not sure how you will know any of the 2008 prediction is right or wrong on Jan 1st, 2008.



I agree it is pretty certain that we will have a very bumpy year in the financial markets. That being said, there will be bright spots. Given the same facts, most of the folks here look at it as glass half empty, while few of us look at is as glass half full.
 
No prob profette. Basically it seems like a lot of people think that new homes built on land recently purchased from TIC are not highly substitutable goods, and that this means that TIC can engage in monopoly price setting and keep the price of new homes in Irvine near peak market (2005-2006) prices despite what is happening throughout the rest of Southern California. I strongly disagree, but I get that this flawed meme is strong and don't expect it to die out anytime soon.
 
irvine123,





Predicting collapsing home prices <strong>is </strong>seeing the glass half full. Low prices are a great thing for almost everybody except the few who are just about to sell and rent or downsize. I'm starting to feel like Benjamin Linus here. We're the good guys.
 
Bigmoneysalsa, I wouldn't consider a 10% drop a "collapse". Then we might have different definition. I don't know what will happen in 2008. Just making predictions for the fun. Only time will tell. I am a homeowner since 1999, and have no reason to hope for a market "collapse". It would be fun next year this time to revisit this trend.
 
Sure, 10% total peak to trough is not a collapse. But we're only talking about 2008 here. 10% in one year surely qualifies as a "collapsing" rate given how stick RE prices typically are.





Do you plan on ever being a move up buyer? Or even moving into a similar, different home (think about prop 13)? Do you have any friends or family who are hopeful first time buyers? You may have more reasons to welcome lower home prices than you think.
 
<p>salsa, The concept of substitute Goods or services is to replace one with another, however, it can only be a Perfect Substitute if it can be used in the same way for the same cost with the same outcome, there are very few goods where this is possible, some use Butter and Margarine as (bad) examples of subsitute Goods...</p>

<p>IAC won't beable to sustain their high rents, for instance, in my little part of an IAC Complex I have seen 3 Townhouses vacated since the end of October all within 50 feet of where we live, I'll be watching to see how long they stay empty .</p>

<p>Or maybe they've decided that empty units are better than lowering Rents?</p>
 
Like you peter, I live in an IAC complex and am noticing a lot more vacancy than I did a few months ago. It seems that they believe that demand will pick up soon and that letting them sit vacant for a while will be worth keeping prices higher on the ones that are rented. Who knows maybe they are right. Time will tell.





Very, very few goods have <strong>perfect </strong>substitutes. But most have a least some good ones. Actually I think butter and margarine are a great example of good substitute goods. So are IAC apartments and privately-owned condos rented out by Irvine landlords. So are new homes in Irvine and new homes in VOC or Tustin Fields. So are new homes in Irvine and existing homes in Irvine. Things can be excellent substitute goods even if they are different in many ways or are unequal in quality.
 
1-Hillary will win!! ( I'm running for a delegate position (DNC) so please vote :) )

2- 20-30% prices continue to fall in the OC. If banks continue to require proof of income and down payments. If not 10%

3- The name WAMU and Countrywide will not exist in 09.

4- I will own a home by the end of the year!! Well if house prices continue to fall :)
 
<p>1: Huckabee loses to Obama</p>

<p>2: Economy is in full recession with no real relief in sight</p>

<p>3: Goverments at all levels begin drastic cuts in spending until they can pass tax hikes</p>

<p>4: A major intervention by the FDIC results in forestalling a complete collapse, but at least one major IB falls and several national banks will come close to collapse</p>

<p>5: Arson rates will rise in both Residential and Commercial real estate</p>

<p>6: Several insurance companies will go bankrupt</p>

<p>7: "It's the economy, stupid" will make a comeback come the party conventions</p>

<p>8: State-backed banks in Germany and France will fail and set off recessions across the globe</p>

<p>9: The dollar will rise above 85 on the index and flatline there as opposing forces work to prop it up against inflation</p>

<p>10: Zovall will finish the blog redesign sometime before Halloween</p>
 
<p>My predictions:</p>

<p>- Jobless rate will increase through the first half of the year, bringing along the recession through the 3rd quarter. Economy will begin to pick back up in 4th quarter, but it will be substantial news because we will buck the trend of decreasing time span for recessions. Last one was 7 months, this one will be 10-11.</p>

<p>- Housing prices in OC will fall by another 8-10% in the books. Real prices will drop another 15-20% which will signal the effective bottom by end of '08 or beginning '09. However, there will be slight undulations for a LONG TIME.</p>

<p>- It will be a tough borrower's market for the first half of the year, but as market sentiments ease up, so will lending standards. By year end, the 5 & 10% down payment plans will be readily available again for good credit qualifiers. We will, however, resort back to the more traditional affordability standards for qualifications.</p>

<p>- Inflation will continue to be modest, but wages will flatten. Rents will flatten, or even be slightly down in SoCal.</p>

<p>- I will write-in vote for Colin Powell for President...</p>

<p>- I will be an Atlanta resident by year-end (what wife wants, wife gets)</p>
 
<p>Just a little something I saw on Calculated Risk for all you "the glass is half full" folks:</p>

<p><em>"So as not to start the new year on such a dour note, employment numbers should be nudged up by people panning for gold out west."</em>


<em>iceman | 01.02.08 - 11:03 am |</em></p>
 
Gold will eclipse 1,000



The Median US home value will fall an additional 10%-15%



We will still have a record number of homes VACANT and for sale. Serious discussions will already be underway about bull-dozign homes to eliminate the supply of homes.



WAMU, CFC, and Indymac will become insolvent and file for BK



Orange County will see additional 15% - 20% cuts in WTF asking prices.



Al Gore is going to magically become a candidate and win all the tree-hugger votes.



Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will need serious gov't bailout.



Record Foreclosures and defaults, as 2008 will see massive PRIME ARM adjustments and neg am recasts.



The DJIA will drop below 12,000.



Iran will go nuclear.



Gas will be $4.50 a gallon in SoCal.
 
<p>At the end of December 2008, Connie DeGroot will still be saying, "Now is a good time to buy", and she will still be a moron. </p>
 
<p>"Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination but lose the election to her Republican opponent because she is unable to carry either Ohio or Florida."</p>

<p>Right on!</p>

<p>My own prediction for years to come: every bear that finally buys a home magically transforms into a bull :) </p>

<p>(please don't hit me on the head dear IHBrs, it's the weakest part of my body :)</p>
 
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