Waiting to catch a wave? Surge of REO listings is unlikely.

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[quote author="awgee" date=1250579836]Geotpf - I may be able to help you out. What zip code do you live in?



There are 65 REOs, bank owned properties, not NTSes, but actual bank owned properties in the zip code 92501 according to Foreclosure Radar. Cross referencing the fr list with a list of homes for sale show that 9 of the 65 REOs are listed for sale.



If you tell me what zip you live in, I may be able to do the same for your zip if the list is not too large.







92501 is a random zip I chose in Riverside. Riverside is where Geotpf bought his house.</blockquote>




Can I play? That zip code lists 28 SALES for June according to DQNews.



That same zip code shows 114 Foreclosure Auctions scheduled over the next 30 days.



So current foreclosures plus schedule auctions are six months of supply.



Other zip codes like 92503 which are large zip for Riverside show 116 sales last month.



It shows 502 Auctions scheduled for the next 30 days. A little over four months not including already existing REOs.





Meanwhile, back in Irvine, scheduled foreclosures, slowly climb, starting last week around 240 for the next 30 days, now at 273 over the next 30 days.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250583772][quote author="awgee" date=1250579836]Geotpf - I may be able to help you out. What zip code do you live in?



There are 65 REOs, bank owned properties, not NTSes, but actual bank owned properties in the zip code 92501 according to Foreclosure Radar. Cross referencing the fr list with a list of homes for sale show that 9 of the 65 REOs are listed for sale.



If you tell me what zip you live in, I may be able to do the same for your zip if the list is not too large.







92501 is a random zip I chose in Riverside. Riverside is where Geotpf bought his house.</blockquote>




Can I play? That zip code lists 28 SALES for June according to DQNews.



That same zip code shows 114 Foreclosure Auctions scheduled over the next 30 days.



So current foreclosures plus schedule auctions are six months of supply.



Other zip codes like 92503 which are large zip for Riverside show 116 sales last month.



It shows 502 Auctions scheduled for the next 30 days. A little over four months not including already existing REOs.





Meanwhile, back in Irvine, scheduled foreclosures, slowly climb, starting last week around 240 for the next 30 days, now at 273 over the next 30 days.</blockquote>
I am going to take my ball and go home.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250589351]Aw come on Awgee, tell us how many bank owneds aren't listed for 92503 and 92509 first. We could have fun.</blockquote>


Yeah! You big quitter! Stick around!
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250589351]Aw come on Awgee, tell us how many bank owneds aren't listed for 92503 and 92509 first. We could have fun.</blockquote>


92503 = 245 foreclosures/bank owned. That is the red B (for bank) pin on Foreclosure Radar. 31 of those are listed.



92509 = 199 foreclosures/bank owned. 29 of those are listed.
 
I was just kidding.



And am waiting for Geotpf's zip, unless Graphrix or I have already covered it.







I am wondering what Geotpf thinks about the the numbers G and I have posted so far. How much ya wanna bet he finds some reason to disregard or mininmize the facts and find anything to support his belief.











Loan mods are on the way.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1250623688]

Loan mods are on the way.</blockquote>


Cramdowns are coming. And Santa Claus is going to admin them in Fantasyland. The rumor is the Tooth Fairy is going to start doing appraisals while she's doing her other job.



Did I violate the 'nice' policy?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250583772][quote author="awgee" date=1250579836]Geotpf - I may be able to help you out. What zip code do you live in?



There are 65 REOs, bank owned properties, not NTSes, but actual bank owned properties in the zip code 92501 according to Foreclosure Radar. Cross referencing the fr list with a list of homes for sale show that 9 of the 65 REOs are listed for sale.



If you tell me what zip you live in, I may be able to do the same for your zip if the list is not too large.







92501 is a random zip I chose in Riverside. Riverside is where Geotpf bought his house.</blockquote>




Can I play? That zip code lists 28 SALES for June according to DQNews.



That same zip code shows 114 Foreclosure Auctions scheduled over the next 30 days.



So current foreclosures plus schedule auctions are six months of supply.



Other zip codes like 92503 which are large zip for Riverside show 116 sales last month.



It shows 502 Auctions scheduled for the next 30 days. A little over four months not including already existing REOs.





Meanwhile, back in Irvine, scheduled foreclosures, slowly climb, starting last week around 240 for the next 30 days, now at 273 over the next 30 days.</blockquote>


The real question is how many auctions actually occurred in the last month? Scheduled auction numbers are fairly meaningless if many/most get cancelled or posponed.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1250632724]

The real question is how many auctions actually occurred in the last month? Scheduled auction numbers are fairly meaningless if many/most get cancelled or posponed.</blockquote>
How does this help your argument?



You are basically saying the same thing, that the OREOs are increasing because the auctions keep getting delayed.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1250409699][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1250404185][





Just keep one thing in mind, California is a single action State...meaning you either take the property back or go after the borrower/guarantor. Even during the RTC days, most banks did not go after the guarantors on commercial real estate loans that went belly up and just took the property back. Also, it may be hard squeezing juice out of a stone.</blockquote>




This assumes that most of the deadbeats didn't refi or heloc. which removes them from the realm of "purchase money loans"





My impression from IR's reporting is that >90% of the deadbeats did one or both of those things.



In addition, all of the 2nds can go after the deadbeats if the 1sts are the ones who foreclose.</blockquote>


Even if they are refi's, the lender only has the option to take the property back or go after the borrower/guarnator, as SC stated. I believe that most just go the NOD/NOTS/TS route.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1250632724][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250583772][quote author="awgee" date=1250579836]Geotpf - I may be able to help you out. What zip code do you live in?



There are 65 REOs, bank owned properties, not NTSes, but actual bank owned properties in the zip code 92501 according to Foreclosure Radar. Cross referencing the fr list with a list of homes for sale show that 9 of the 65 REOs are listed for sale.



If you tell me what zip you live in, I may be able to do the same for your zip if the list is not too large.







92501 is a random zip I chose in Riverside. Riverside is where Geotpf bought his house.</blockquote>




Can I play? That zip code lists 28 SALES for June according to DQNews.



That same zip code shows 114 Foreclosure Auctions scheduled over the next 30 days.



So current foreclosures plus schedule auctions are six months of supply.



Other zip codes like 92503 which are large zip for Riverside show 116 sales last month.



It shows 502 Auctions scheduled for the next 30 days. A little over four months not including already existing REOs.





Meanwhile, back in Irvine, scheduled foreclosures, slowly climb, starting last week around 240 for the next 30 days, now at 273 over the next 30 days.</blockquote>


The real question is how many auctions actually occurred in the last month? Scheduled auction numbers are fairly meaningless if many/most get cancelled or posponed.</blockquote>


We are showing you how many REOs there are in any given zip and how many of those REOs are listed. Why are you ignoring the data?

What zip do you live in?
 
[quote author="JVNA" date=1250652919][quote author="freedomCM" date=1250409699][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1250404185][





Just keep one thing in mind, California is a single action State...meaning you either take the property back or go after the borrower/guarantor. Even during the RTC days, most banks did not go after the guarantors on commercial real estate loans that went belly up and just took the property back. Also, it may be hard squeezing juice out of a stone.</blockquote>




This assumes that most of the deadbeats didn't refi or heloc. which removes them from the realm of "purchase money loans"





My impression from IR's reporting is that >90% of the deadbeats did one or both of those things.



In addition, all of the 2nds can go after the deadbeats if the 1sts are the ones who foreclose.</blockquote>


Even if they are refi's, the lender only has the option to take the property back or go after the borrower/guarnator, as SC stated. I believe that most just go the NOD/NOTS/TS route.</blockquote>




So that just leaves all the 2nds and HELOCs to go after the deadbeats?



I can live with that...
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1250632724][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250583772]



...That same zip code shows 114 Foreclosure Auctions scheduled over the next 30 days.



So current foreclosures plus schedule auctions are six months of supply.



Other zip codes like 92503 which are large zip for Riverside show 116 sales last month.



It shows 502 Auctions scheduled for the next 30 days. A little over four months not including already existing REOs.

..</blockquote>


The real question is how many auctions actually occurred in the last month? Scheduled auction numbers are fairly meaningless if many/most get cancelled or posponed.</blockquote>


In 92503, 70 went back to the bank last month alone. I believe the DQnews numbers include court house auctions that successful go to third party. So it's 70 + whatever the investors sniped. So 60%+ of the July sales rate are being absorbed by the bank.



Can I get a hand from someone to say how many of the MLS sales where previous REOs? Anybody able to scan out and say how many of the 116 sales were 'investor' flips of foreclosures? Guesses? Or are comfortable admitting that even a 60% level of foreclosures compared to summer peak selling season is going to be devastating.



In 92501, only 18 went back to the bank, but it had 28 sales. So again, just over 60% not including investors and resale of REOs.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1250670032]In 92503, 70 went back to the bank last month alone. I believe the DQnews numbers [insert] <strong>do not</strong> [/insert] include court house auctions that successful go to third party. So it's 70 + whatever the investors sniped. So 60%+ of the July sales rate are being absorbed by the bank.</blockquote>


Did you type too fast, and mean that DQ only reports the trustee sales that go back to the bank? Because if you did, then Foreclosure Radar backs that up with 70 exactly. There were 11 investor purchases in 92503, and two of them are already listed. <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Riverside/17374-Heights-Ln-92503/home/6338707">17374 HEIGHTS LN</a> and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Riverside/10969-Middleborough-Rd-92503/home/4762362">10969 MIDDLEBOROUGH RD</a>.



<blockquote>Can I get a hand from someone to say how many of the MLS sales where previous REOs? Anybody able to scan out and say how many of the 116 sales were 'investor' flips of foreclosures? Guesses? Or are comfortable admitting that even a 60% level of foreclosures compared to summer peak selling season is going to be devastating.



In 92501, only 18 went back to the bank, but it had 28 sales. So again, just over 60% not including investors and resale of REOs.</blockquote>


Can't help you on the MLS data for the land of the dirt people. But since it takes about 90 days for an investor to turn around a property, I might take a look at what was sold to investors 90 days before July.



92501 did have 18 go back to the bank, and zero that went to investors. That really is not a good sign.



The entire city of Riversas had 257 go back to the bank, and 42 that were sold to investors. Riversas county had 1944 go back to the bank, 326 that were sold to investors, and 4699 total sales.
 
I am so confused.

Geotpf wanted numbers. Real numbers. Numbers of REOs vs REOS listed.

We gave him those numbers. In his location.

So why no response?

Geoptf is posting on other threads.

Why no response to the numbers showing how many REOs vs. how many REOs listed?

Is that not what he wanted?

Has Geoptf decided to ignore the facts since they do not fit his preconceived beliefs?









I for one am fascinated with market psychology, especially how strong it is.

I have a theory that out of all the factors influencing residential real estate, market psychology is the strongest. Stronger than interest rates, stronger than income to expense ratios, and stronger than "We want our kids to grow up in a good neighborhood."
 
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