Tesla Model 3

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Our neighbor just got a 3, I'll see what they think after they drive it a couple of weeks, I'm seeing a lot of Model 3's in Irvine recently. 
 
Going private is one heck of a way to hide your sins.  No pesky public disclosure and audits to deal with.
 
morekaos said:
Going private is one heck of a way to hide your sins.  No pesky public disclosure and audits to deal with.

The investors would likely require audited financials. And they would probably go public again in the future which would require the last three years of audited financials at the time of going public
 
Can we please bring this thread back on topic?  This is after all a Tech sub-forum on the model 3. 

I can provide some insight to anyone curious about the model 3.  I've had mine for about 4 months now.  I also just test drove the Performance Model 3 this past weekend at the Costa Mesa Sales center.  This is my 3rd EV, so I'm definitely not new to the game.  I'm also a true gearhead at heart as nothing beats the satisfying sound of internal combustion cars(and tracking them).

Overall, I am both impressed and disappointed so far with the car.  Daily driving performance is excellent: the ride is comfortable and compliant and acceleration is quick to 60, never gets old how fast it can speed up from a stop. Autopilot is awesome in bumper to bumper traffic, but i really wouldn't use it at normal cruising speeds unless the highways are clear. 

A full charge (up to 310 miles) costs me around $8-9, insurance rates are similar to german counterparts (3-series, c-class, a4), and getting back $10,450 in tax credits and rebates puts the car around $45k, which is a fair price for the vehicle.  Oh, and maintenance is really just tires (and brakes if you use them a lot). 

If anyone is interested in checking the vehicle out, pm me and i'd be more than happy to share.
 
id_rather_be_racing said:
Overall, I am both impressed and disappointed so far with the car.  Daily driving performance is excellent: the ride is comfortable and compliant and acceleration is quick to 60, never gets old how fast it can speed up from a stop. Autopilot is awesome in bumper to bumper traffic, but i really wouldn't use it at normal cruising speeds unless the highways are clear. 

A full charge (up to 310 miles) costs me around $8-9, insurance rates are similar to german counterparts (3-series, c-class, a4), and getting back $10,450 in tax credits and rebates puts the car around $45k, which is a fair price for the vehicle.  Oh, and maintenance is really just tires (and brakes if you use them a lot). 

If anyone is interested in checking the vehicle out, pm me and i'd be more than happy to share.

What aspects of it are you disappointed with?
 
jajji said:
id_rather_be_racing said:
Overall, I am both impressed and disappointed so far with the car.  Daily driving performance is excellent: the ride is comfortable and compliant and acceleration is quick to 60, never gets old how fast it can speed up from a stop. Autopilot is awesome in bumper to bumper traffic, but i really wouldn't use it at normal cruising speeds unless the highways are clear. 

A full charge (up to 310 miles) costs me around $8-9, insurance rates are similar to german counterparts (3-series, c-class, a4), and getting back $10,450 in tax credits and rebates puts the car around $45k, which is a fair price for the vehicle.  Oh, and maintenance is really just tires (and brakes if you use them a lot). 

If anyone is interested in checking the vehicle out, pm me and i'd be more than happy to share.

What aspects of it are you disappointed with?

Just realized I didn't include the issues I've had so far. 

I was one of the unlucky handful that got a slightly darker pearl white rear bumper, that had to be repainted (still looks off, but it's acceptable).  The body shop Tesla contracted it out to also did a crap job of blending with the rear quarters, so they had to redo the rear quarter paint as well.  Fortunately the rear quarter looks flawless now.

Many QC issues you've heard from news outlets are true.  The rear door to rear quarter panel gaps are horrendous, but the front end panel gaps are tight and clean.  Interior plastic piece on the gear selector stalk was loose (fixed now).  The front seats rub slightly with the center console cover.  The rear visibility is also horrendous due to high trunk line, but this is a common problem for a lot wedge shaped cars.  Fit and finish are not Tesla's strong suit, but the Performance Model 3 I test drove was a definite improvement. 

To offset the disappointments, trunk space is massive and the rear seats can fold down completely, just not flat.  Seats are super plush and comfortable, and the learning curve is quick with the center screen and 2 buttons on the steering wheel.  My only gripe is the temperature controls are really annoying to use, but hopefully they rollout an update to fix it (e.g. mirroring what the Model S does with customizable steering button controls)

I've already gotten multiple OTA updates that improved the ownership experience, most recently summon is an AWESOME feature when needing to park in tight spaces.
 
Yikes!!

Tesla shares are getting slammed after Elon Musk's off-kilter interview with the NYT

Shares dropped more than 8 percent after a New York Times piece outlined serious struggles for CEO Elon Musk.
The paper also reported that the board is concerned over Musk?s use of Ambien and recreational drugs, and that Musk and members are set to meet with SEC officials as soon as next week.
Musk tweeted last week that he had ?funding secured? to take Tesla private at $420 per share, which could be a violation of SEC rules.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/tesla-tumbles-3point5-percent-ahead-of-elon-musks-reported-meeting-with-sec.html
 
When Musk said he was thinking of taking the company private at $420 a share, why didn't I buy puts? Dumb I guess knowing there were stories out there that Tesla wanted money back from suppliers and they have enough debt already and wondering how the SEC is ok with him tweeting something like that but instead I just laughed at the short squeeze he created.

Now he's admitted he's been taking Ambien, works up to 120 hours a week (over 17 hours per day), alternates between laughing and crying in a NYT interview, says the worst is not over for him personally, the board is looking for a number two to help him out.

I won't be surprised to see this stock under $100 some day.
 
I actually thought about buying puts that day.  The thought "no such thing as a sure thing" went through my mind.  Guess there is such a thing after all.  Too chicken shit.
 
daedalus said:
I think Elon is kind of losing it...
  At least now we know he knows he's losing it.

Thus far Spacex has been his golden goose, but I wonder if the way he's acting will start to impact their valuation too.
 
I heard that the potential buyer @$420 is Saudi Arabian.  If Tesla is Saudi Arabian owned, it might hurt the goodwill of the brand a bit.

Back to the Model 3.  I have 3 different friends who were on the list and were notified that they can order their car.  All 3 changed their minds once notified.  That's pretty anecdotal, but if that happens frequently enough, it could hurt Tesla's projections.
 
spootieho said:
I heard that the potential buyer @$420 is Saudi Arabian.  If Tesla is Saudi Arabian owned, it might hurt the goodwill of the brand a bit.

Back to the Model 3.  I have 3 different friends who were on the list and were notified that they can order their car.  All 3 changed their minds once notified.  That's pretty anecdotal, but if that happens frequently enough, it could hurt Tesla's projections.
Saudi?s are hedging their money like FCB?s buying properties outside their country :)

I see tons of 3?s in Irvine, actually Tesla?s in general, not so much as I drive further away.
 
If any of you read Barron's this weekend,  there is a nice story on Tesla in there.  Ultimately, the main thesis for a short to properly work is - will the world miss this company if it is gone ? If the answer is yes, it is a tougher trade. 

I have no idea what Tesla's fair value is I doubt anyone out there does, but there is a following and brand value here that is unmatched in this day and age.  The quarter they start to break even in terms of cash flow (Q4 ?) , will be the turning point for this company.  If Musk doesn't flame out before then. 

As to Saudis, AW is absolutely correct that they are hedging their bets, esp. with concerns in the kingdom around peak oil demand and MBS (the ruler) being a bit more forward thinking than prior regimes.  They also have a friend in the current White House / administration that will grease the wheels for any ultimate acquisition to take place.  But I suspect a deal is still nowhere near given market taking the stock more than 30% below where Musk claimed he agreed to a deal.
 
tesla is the first mover and currently has a firm grasp of the mid-luxury electric market, which is artificially propping the company up.  they need to figure it out in the next year with regards to quality control, servicing, etc. because as soon as porsche, bmw, and mb enter the arena, we will see how mortal tesla really is.
 
The federal tax electric car subsidy will be cut in half next year. To some people it doesn?t matter and to some people it will make a difference.

Also the solar panel tax credit is set to decrease after this year.
 
AW said:
spootieho said:
I heard that the potential buyer @$420 is Saudi Arabian.  If Tesla is Saudi Arabian owned, it might hurt the goodwill of the brand a bit.

Back to the Model 3.  I have 3 different friends who were on the list and were notified that they can order their car.  All 3 changed their minds once notified.  That's pretty anecdotal, but if that happens frequently enough, it could hurt Tesla's projections.
Saudi?s are hedging their money like FCB?s buying properties outside their country :)

I see tons of 3?s in Irvine, actually Tesla?s in general, not so much as I drive further away.

You see a ton of Tesla?s in Irvine because people in Irvine not only like to overpay for their homes but also their cars
 
eyephone said:
The federal tax electric car subsidy will be cut in half next year. To some people it doesn?t matter and to some people it will make a difference.

Also the solar panel tax credit is set to decrease after this year.

this is a good point and will definitely have an effect on the people who have been holding reservations for 2 years that are still hoping for a $35k model 3.  the fact is, a $35k model 3 won't be delivered until next year, and by then tesla's tax credit may be completely gone.
 
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