Tesla Model 3

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qwerty said:
i1 said:
People with Tesla?s all seem to rave about them.
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Most people who overpay for a car aren?t going to brag that they don?t like it. So they suck it up and rationalize that it?s a great car.
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Does this apply to overpriced and overtaxed Irvine homes too?
 
qwerty said:
i1 said:
People with Tesla?s all seem to rave about them.
Click to expand...

Most people who overpay for a car aren?t going to brag that they don?t like it. So they suck it up and rationalize that it?s a great car.
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Every bmw, Lexus, Benz, Infiniti, tesla is overpriced imo. I?ve owned a fully loaded Nissan in the past, then test drove an Infiniti. The difference was marginal and more mental than real.
 
fortune11 said:
qwerty said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
I think SpaceX is making money isn't it? With the reusable rockets the profit margins are pretty steep.

Didn't someone review the cost of material breakdown of a Model 3, finding it had about a 25 - 30% gross profit margin? I could be wrong, but that seems to be a pretty hefty ROI once everyone else gets paid.
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SpaceX probably spends a good chunk of money on R&d. The reusable rocket pieces allow them to charge less per launch.  I doubt they are a money printing machine. Highly unlikely.

Also doubt the model 3 is a big money maker. The overhead is too significant to be covered by the volume of model 3s being produced. If gross margin was an indicator of ROI every company would be making a lot of money. Plenty of companies with higher margins than 30% that lose plenty of money
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Of all automakers , BMW has the best margins . Tesla is nowhere close , it is actually burning 1-2bn cash every year and needs outside funding . Until now ... if they can sustain this 6,000 rate of model 3 production they are at breakeven. .
But Tesla is being valued as a tech / mobility / future mode company . Google s Waymo which is private , has all sorts of crazy valuations being thrown around on it , from 50 to 175bn. Compared to that Tesla is still ?cheap? . Problem is , as the ?auto? part of Tesla gets compt from the Europeans starting next year, can they maintain their edge in tech and continued to get tech like multiples ?
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If you buy Alphabet stock I think that includes Waymo as well.
 
qwerty said:
The longer Tesla is around it becomes clear that the potential priced in the valuation isn?t really there. Bmw/Porsche have plenty of fan boys as well. If they put out a high performance EV (I think Porsche is doing so) that would put a tremendous amount of competitive pressure on Tesla since no real competition exist for now.
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Not disputing the valuation being too high, but Tesla has a pretty large technology lead with Model 3 over other competitors at the moment in pack architecture, BMS, high powered electronics, and huge leap in motor tech with their permanent magnet assisted SMR motor. The people tearing down the Model 3 are pretty much blown away by the high power electronics in both their capabilities and level integration to bring cost down.

The Taycan has faster charging, but that pretty much comes down to their choice of NMC chemistry vs Tesla's NCA (NCA is only feasible with cylindrical cells).BYD is the only company that can match or beat Tesla tech at the moment.

That could all change after a few years of R&D and several billion dollars, however.

I see Tesla where the iPhone was in 2007, huge tech lead over the competition, but some weird fails  on the basics like lack of MMS or Video Recording. Porsche and Jaguar are the initial droids, promising competition but it will take them a few generations to really catch up.

The great thing about the Taycan and iPace is that it gives viable EVs for the anti-tesla fanboys to buy. Like Apple, the cultlike fanboyism around Tesla creates a group of anti-fanboys that hate the company. Its like the third law of motion, every Fanboy creates an equal and opposite hater.



 
inv0ke-epipen said:
Not disputing the valuation being too high, but Tesla has a pretty large technology lead with Model 3 over other competitors at the moment in pack architecture, BMS, high powered electronics, and huge leap in motor tech with their permanent magnet assisted SMR motor. The people tearing down the Model 3 are pretty much blown away by the high power electronics in both their capabilities and level integration to bring cost down.

The Taycan has faster charging, but that pretty much comes down to their choice of NMC chemistry vs Tesla's NCA (NCA is only feasible with cylindrical cells).BYD is the only company that can match or beat Tesla tech at the moment.

That could all change after a few years of R&D and several billion dollars, however.

I see Tesla where the iPhone was in 2007, huge tech lead over the competition, but some weird fails  on the basics like lack of MMS or Video Recording. Porsche and Jaguar are the initial droids, promising competition but it will take them a few generations to really catch up.

The great thing about the Taycan and iPace is that it gives viable EVs for the anti-tesla fanboys to buy. Like Apple, the cultlike fanboyism around Tesla creates a group of anti-fanboys that hate the company. Its like the third law of motion, every Fanboy creates an equal and opposite hater.
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All great points.

Don't discount Chevy either, they have a pretty cool car (but so bizarre looking) at the price point.  I realize they're totally different market segments but I gave some serious thought to driving around in a Bolt instead of the Model 3 for a little bit after test driving one.

Your Apple analogy about fanboyism is spot on.  I got really tired explaining to tech savvy friends I wanted a UNIX like ecosystem without having to do a ton of setup/configuration when I got my MacBook Air ages ago.  I deal with computers all day at work, I just want most things to "just work" when I get home. 

But in that vein, I wouldn't say I'm a Tesla fan so much as an EV fan.  Not having to get gas and the lack of a ton of maintenance items has made it worth it for me (and I did all the wrenching on my previous cars).  Our other car is a PHEV (Chevy Volt) so we usually go on full battery on that too.  When the lease on the Volt ends I will gladly get a non Tesla if another manufacturer can give me over the air updates and has a great charging infrastructure for longer trips for the rare occasion I do take one.
 
The SEC complaint alleges that Musk issued "false and misleading" statements and failed to properly notify regulators of material company events.

Sources close to the company told CNBC the company was also expecting to be sued, though Tesla was not named as a defendant in the complaint.

In August, Musk tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private, adding "funding secured."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html
 
My how the mighty have fallen...

SEC charges Tesla CEO Elon Musk with fraud

The SEC complaint alleges that Musk issued "false and misleading" statements and failed to properly notify regulators of material company events.
Sources close to the company told CNBC the company was also expecting to be sued, though Tesla was not named as a defendant in the complaint.
In August, Musk tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private, adding "funding secured."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html
 
Too slow toad. I just posted it before you. Jk jk

morekaos said:
My how the mighty have fallen...

SEC charges Tesla CEO Elon Musk with fraud

The SEC complaint alleges that Musk issued "false and misleading" statements and failed to properly notify regulators of material company events.
Sources close to the company told CNBC the company was also expecting to be sued, though Tesla was not named as a defendant in the complaint.
In August, Musk tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private, adding "funding secured."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html
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WOW there's gotta be insider trading here.  Look at the PUT volume for today.  Take for example the $275 PUT (expiring 9/28) was worth .03c at market close and in the morning should be worth about $8.00.

26,000% gain overnight and the volume is particularly high for that contract...

$100 would have made me $2.6M... can this be right?
 
aquabliss said:
WOW there's gotta be insider trading here.  Look at the PUT volume for today.  Take for example the $275 PUT (expiring 9/28) was worth .03c at market close and in the morning should be worth about $8.00.

26,000% gain overnight and the volume is particularly high for that contract...

$100 would have made me $2.6M... can this be right?
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No.  (8/.03) * 100 = $26,667 (including initial investment).  Still, good work if you can get it.  Musk is definitely a fat tail producer. 
 
daedalus said:
aquabliss said:
WOW there's gotta be insider trading here.  Look at the PUT volume for today.  Take for example the $275 PUT (expiring 9/28) was worth .03c at market close and in the morning should be worth about $8.00.

26,000% gain overnight and the volume is particularly high for that contract...

$100 would have made me $2.6M... can this be right?
Click to expand...

No.  (8/.03) * 100 = $26,667 (including initial investment).  Still, good work if you can get it.  Musk is definitely a fat tail producer. 
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Ooops ya that sounds more like it.  Pesky math.  Ya, where's my time machine...
 
morekaos said:
No, I always have a thorn in my side stock that taunts me with totally screwed up valuations till it collapses.  Starbucks was my other one before Tesla and it finally collapsed to $2 before it recovered again.  Before that it was Worldcom, Sun Microsystems and Juniper Networks.  In the end this one still might be similar.  Who the hell knows?
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It was trading at $312 on that date.  May have taken some time but is still possible.  Always said this company would have a bad ending.
 
morekaos said:
morekaos said:
No, I always have a thorn in my side stock that taunts me with totally screwed up valuations till it collapses.  Starbucks was my other one before Tesla and it finally collapsed to $2 before it recovered again.  Before that it was Worldcom, Sun Microsystems and Juniper Networks.  In the end this one still might be similar.  Who the hell knows?
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It was trading at $312 on that date.  May have taken some time but is still possible.  Always said this company would have a bad ending.
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With or without Musk, my prediction is the market will overlook all of this and valuate TSLA based on earning potential and merit. The stock will recover with the caveat that they can produce the $35,000 version of the Model 3. Other manufacturers all want to be in the EV game but are lagging behind in battery R&D and charging infrastructure. No one is going to come close to the efficiency and performance of a Model 3 for a few years. The Jaguar I-PACE is supposed to the be a Model X killer but it takes a 20% larger battery to achieve the same range. Also competitors lack the public charging infrastructure which will take years to catch up on as well.
 
I tend to agree with Cares but technology has a funny way of turning things upside down quickly.

Back in the day, Blackberries ruled the corporate world and that turned really quick (and Palm Pilots were before Blackberries). So Tesla just needs to be careful and be able to adjust quickly... and they need to take Twitter away from Elon. :)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I tend to agree with Cares but technology has a funny way of turning things upside down quickly.

Back in the day, Blackberries ruled the corporate world and that turned really quick (and Palm Pilots were before Blackberries). So Tesla just needs to be careful and be able to adjust quickly... and they need to take Twitter away from Elon. :)
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While I agree that tech disruption occurs significantly faster than other industries, I don't feel Tesla is threatened to be disrupted at this moment. It is still early in the cycle for EV disruption in the automotive industry.
 
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