Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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Now that I heard Obamas acceptance speech in Chicago...I kinda scared going short...his speech alone makes me wanna go out and buy something :P lol
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225947766]I did some profit taking and reduced my short position by 50%. Dumped CSCO as 30% profit was enough...not holding to hear earnings/guidence even though I think they will be bad.</blockquote>
Nice calls, I still have my puts options. I too am hoping for a bad employment report to help remind investors that this isn't a time to be buying stocks.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225951597]</blockquote> I too am hoping for a bad employment report to help remind investors that this isn't a time to be buying stocks.</blockquote>


Yes, Goldman is saying it won't be pretty (one of the weakest in 20 years)



"We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. ... The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. ... Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and ... could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment ..."



http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/goldman-sachs-expects-one-of-weakest.html
 
Heh, did you all see this: <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/3x-exchange-traded-funds/">3X Exchange-Traded Funds</a>?



I have traded the 2X ETFs before, and people have told me I am crazy for trading options on them, but even 3X ETFs is a bit scary for me.
 
I would have to say anybody who holds these 3X ETFs for more than... an hour, is brain-damaged. Or needs to be parted with his money as soon as possible.



Take only a pretty pedestrian (nowadays) whipsaw going from 100 to 95 the next day than back to 100 the next day. That's -5%, +5.3% in a 2-day succession. This translates to -15%, +15.8%. The 3x ETF will go from 100 to 85, then back to 98.42.



Congratulations, nothing happened in the market but you gracefully handed over 2.25% of your position in 24 hours. Where the money ended up is anyone's guess. Some accounting line somewhere.



A less mundane whipsaw of a drop of 20% followed by going back up to the prior level the next day will hit you with a 30% loss, again, in a market where nothing happened.





There's a point where you actually have to tell people, "you know, at this point, you might as well go ahead and just use plain margin and deal with margin calls. It will be less dangerous for you".



This is the latest money train for Wall Street. The decay in the price series guarantees an arbitrage that they can profit from. I'm expecting we will have 6X, 8X and 12X ETFs eventually. Next thing you know you'll hear stories about some Joe Idiot who became a millionaire betting the farm on a completely run of the mill stock market daily fluctuation.



It kinda reminds me of the housing bubble really... I mean, no offense, but blackvault's thoughts were immediately "awesome! how can I lever this even more using some form of OPMs?". This will appeal to a certain demographic who have nothing to lose but everything to gain. Just like housing - all you have to lose is going bankrupt but if you hit the jackpot on a leveraged ETF you could make millions!



Just look at SKF. It's a 2X ETF but you will have made MORE money if you just shorted the underlying index long-term (+38% vs. -47% for the index YTD). Anyone wanna guess where the 9% accumulated error went?



These are good as trading vehicles, but the amount of slippage due to the price series is so great you can't do more than intraday.
 
Take a look at GLGT.PK EXTREMELY HIGH RISK. But could be high reward. They are an RFID startup and right now they are trying to build a solid company. I know the principle players and am in contact with the company on a regular basis. Currently PPS is .01 and Market Cap of 1 million dollars. I own about 5 million shares.

Again, I do not recommend buying, especially if you can't stomach wild swings in the stock price. This is definitely the 'lottery ticket' portion of my portfolio. But it could be fun to have a contest with everyone giving their stock pick and see who's ahead after 6 months. Anyone game?
 
Just my $0.02 worth: Looks like the overall market is setting up for a heck of a bear market rally. If I was short right now, I would be covering.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1226123944]Take a look at GLGT.PK EXTREMELY HIGH RISK. But could be high reward. They are an RFID startup and right now they are trying to build a solid company. I know the principle players and am in contact with the company on a regular basis. Currently PPS is .01 and Market Cap of 1 million dollars. I own about 5 million shares.

Again, I do not recommend buying, especially if you can't stomach wild swings in the stock price. This is definitely the 'lottery ticket' portion of my portfolio. But it could be fun to have a contest with everyone giving their stock pick and see who's ahead after 6 months. Anyone game?</blockquote>


A market cap of $1M is rather low.

That?s less than a home in Irvine

Are you sure these guys are well capitalized?

Maybe you could arrange for a private placement, would $250K buy me a seat on the board.
 
i only have five or six great ideas every year and this is one of them -- FARROW TECH.

a couple of days ago dan dorfman on CNBC put a heavy buy recommendation on Farrow Tech, reason being, he's been in contact with the ceo and they feel FDA approval will happen within the next three or four weeks. off the record, i just called a broker friend of mine and had him pick me up fifty thousand shares under my sister-in-law's name. i'm going to put all my kids through college with this stock.



many of you posters mentioned something about buying a house right? well how would you like to pay for that house tomorrow... IN CASH.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1226125878]i only have five or six great ideas every year and this is one of them -- FARROW TECH.

a couple of days ago dan dorfman on CNBC put a heavy buy recommendation on Farrow Tech, reason being, he's been in contact with the ceo and they feel FDA approval will happen within the next three or four weeks. off the record, i just called a broker friend of mine and had him pick me up fifty thousand shares under my sister-in-law's name. i'm going to put all my kids through college with this stock.



many of you posters mentioned something about buying a house right? well how would you like to pay for that house tomorrow... IN CASH.</blockquote>
Nice quote from BOILER ROOM. haha
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1226125304]Just my $0.02 worth: Looks like the overall market is setting up for a heck of a bear market rally. If I was short right now, I would be covering.</blockquote>
What makes you have that opinion? I think we rallied a bit because the markets got hammared the last 2 days by selling on the employment rumor and buying/short calling on the news today. They can try to rally this thing all they want, but the market will take another leg down when Q4 earnings are released and 2009 guidances are lowered yet again. I'll be looking to pick up Feb/March 2009 index puts on any big rallies over the next month or so.
 
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