Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505144][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>
I usually buy slightly in the money puts, in this case I picked up two 96 Dec DOW puts.</blockquote>


That's good to hear. Although the gains from out of the money contracts can be astronomical, the success rate is really low. The only time I will play out of the money contracts is when I am in things for a very short time. I'll put my sell order out at the same time I get my fill.



Deep in the money can be a good strategy is you want to play with longer time frames. You typically pay less of a premium if you are looking 6 months or more out and deep in the money.



But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505068][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>


Who cares what you are curious about? Go back to the politics forum.</blockquote>


My question was directed towards USCTrojanMan. But I do hope your outburst helped relieve you of some negative energy.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1225505479][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505144][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>
I usually buy slightly in the money puts, in this case I picked up two 96 Dec DOW puts.</blockquote>


That's good to hear. Although the gains from out of the money contracts can be astronomical, the success rate is really low. The only time I will play out of the money contracts is when I am in things for a very short time. I'll put my sell order out at the same time I get my fill.



Deep in the money can be a good strategy is you want to play with longer time frames. You typically pay less of a premium if you are looking 6 months or more out and deep in the money.



But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505988][quote author="WINEX" date=1225505525][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505068][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>


Who cares what you are curious about? Go back to the politics forum.</blockquote>


My question was directed towards USCTrojanMan. But I do hope your outburst helped relieve you of some negative energy.</blockquote>


My outburst is far different than you calling usctrojan earlier an idiot...and myself...and many others here.</blockquote>
I pay no attention to anyone that calls me an idiot. I do what I do with my money and don't really care what others tell me I should do unless I ask for their opinion.



Back on subject, looks like markets hit the wall and are heading back down, let's see if we can close negative. I think we got a lot of window dressing that pumped the market up today. Case in point OIL, USO spiked from $52.50 to $55.50 in a matter of 10 minutes intraday.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505610][quote author="WINEX" date=1225505479][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505144][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>
I usually buy slightly in the money puts, in this case I picked up two 96 Dec DOW puts.</blockquote>


That's good to hear. Although the gains from out of the money contracts can be astronomical, the success rate is really low. The only time I will play out of the money contracts is when I am in things for a very short time. I'll put my sell order out at the same time I get my fill.



Deep in the money can be a good strategy is you want to play with longer time frames. You typically pay less of a premium if you are looking 6 months or more out and deep in the money.



But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.</blockquote>


SDS is the ultrashort S&P, DXD is the ultrashort Dow.



You might be interested in SRS (ultrashort Real Estate), SKF (ultra short finance), SCC ( ultra short consumer goods) and SDD ( ultra short small caps) as well.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505988][quote author="WINEX" date=1225505525][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505068][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>


Who cares what you are curious about? Go back to the politics forum.</blockquote>


My question was directed towards USCTrojanMan. But I do hope your outburst helped relieve you of some negative energy.</blockquote>


My outburst is far different than you calling usctrojan earlier an idiot...and myself...and many others here.</blockquote>


I believe that I made a general statement about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of overpaying for a certain class of assets. It wasn't directed at anyone.



But I would be remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to specifically mention that you are an idiot. And obviously a petty and bitter person as well.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225506884]Thats fine. I'd take idiot vs being a Nazi.</blockquote>




I'm part of the other party - Republicans.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505610]

But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.</blockquote>


The thought occurred to me that <a href="http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm">this site</a> may be of use to you. Obviously it's geared towards a apocalyptic world view. But I think that seeing some of the products out there could be beneficial. Personally I would recommend that you research corresponding bull market vehicle and use oversold or overbought conditions to position yourself accordingly.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1225507434][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505610]

But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.</blockquote>


The thought occurred to me that <a href="http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm">this site</a> may be of use to you. Obviously it's geared towards a apocalyptic world view. But I think that seeing some of the products out there could be beneficial. Personally I would recommend that you research corresponding bull market vehicle and use oversold or overbought conditions to position yourself accordingly.</blockquote>
What are the corresponding ultra bull ETF for the indexs??? I like to play with indexs more than individual stocks because I've had my ass handed to me day trading stocks and options in the tech bubble days.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225507816][quote author="WINEX" date=1225507434][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505610]

But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.</blockquote>


The thought occurred to me that <a href="http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm">this site</a> may be of use to you. Obviously it's geared towards a apocalyptic world view. But I think that seeing some of the products out there could be beneficial. Personally I would recommend that you research corresponding bull market vehicle and use oversold or overbought conditions to position yourself accordingly.</blockquote>
What are the corresponding ultra bull ETF for the indexs??? I like to play with indexs more than individual stocks because I've had my ass handed to me day trading stocks and options in the tech bubble days.</blockquote>


<a href="http://ultrafunds.blogspot.com/2008/01/ultralong-etf-reference.html">Here are a few to get you started.</a> I'll look for something more comprehensive on the weekend.



On a personal note, when I first started trading (in the mid 90's), I tried going overly exotic with various technical indicators. Over time I learned that waiting for the right setup and simply using trend channels and simple moving averages works far better. (At least for me anyway)



For trades, I'll take either side in the short run simply based on something being overbought or oversold. I have learned the hard way that buying expensive in the hopes of selling more expensive is a suckers game. (It will be interesting to see how many negative responses I get out of that sentence) The philosophy of buying low and selling high can be applied to both trading and investing. In an earlier post, blackvault_cm tried to justify the case of higher volatility leading to higher profits. Experience has taught me that is the wrong strategy. Instead of playing high volatility, focus on low risk/high reward scenarios. Opportunities present themselves constantly. You don't need to grab every opportunity, you just need to focus on the ones that have a high probability of success.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1225506655][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505988][quote author="WINEX" date=1225505525][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225505068][quote author="WINEX" date=1225504861][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225503459][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225494138]On a daily note. Dow double topped. We could be going down from here intraday. Or not...



THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!</blockquote>
Agreed, double top at 9,400 resistance level like I figured...picked up 2 more Dec DOW puts. Looks like the funds are getting into stocks and out of cash so they can show their clients they are invested. Low volume is also making this rally smell funny.</blockquote>


Out of curiosity, do you tend to buy your options in the money, at the money, or out of the money? Or does it vary?</blockquote>


Who cares what you are curious about? Go back to the politics forum.</blockquote>


My question was directed towards USCTrojanMan. But I do hope your outburst helped relieve you of some negative energy.</blockquote>


My outburst is far different than you calling usctrojan earlier an idiot...and myself...and many others here.</blockquote>


I believe that I made a general statement about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of overpaying for a certain class of assets. It wasn't directed at anyone.



But I would be remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to specifically mention that you are an idiot. And obviously a petty and bitter person as well.[/quote



Any guesses on the % of Winex's posts that include calling someone an idiot or the like?
 
don't forget the bullish side of the trade (which had a fantastic week):



leveraged bigoil - DIG (bad guys are DUG - isn't that cute?)

leveraged real estate - URE

emerging markets EEM (i think for whatever reason, the bad guy equivalent EEV is leveraged, and eem isn't?)



and the one I happily held all week - UYM - leveraged basic materials (basically big commodity companies)



for international stuff, I also like to play with RSX (russia), FXI (china), EWA (aussies), VEU (europe) and find IFN (india) interesting, though I've never played it.



and speaking of housing, VNQ (REITs) were the steal of the century a week ago - too bad it crushed my IRA into dust in the previous few weeks!
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225510700]Jobless rate is inching up to 7.5%, not good news for stocks.</blockquote>


the real jobless rate is much higher. look at the total employed # (around 160 mil, I think) for a much less manipulated #.



we're in a low-growth environment for at least the next decade, and maybe more. but that doesn't mean that equities won't absorb at least a little of all of those Bernankebucks starting to flood the system, or that cash and bonds won't be infinitely more painful in the medium and long term.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1225510884][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225510700]Jobless rate is inching up to 7.5%, not good news for stocks.</blockquote>


the real jobless rate is much higher. look at the total employed # (around 160 mil, I think) for a much less manipulated #.



we're in a low-growth environment for at least the next decade, and maybe more. but that doesn't mean that equities won't absorb at least a little of all of those Bernankebucks starting to flood the system, or that cash and bonds won't be infinitely more painful in the medium and long term.</blockquote>


Dude, ten years is a loooooooong time. You're getting ahead of yourself there if you think you got the whole next decade all figured out.



What was on people's minds in 1998? Well, let's see since then we've had two wars, a real estate bubble, proliferation of the internet and consequently its bubble, September 11th, a credit crisis, the rise of China... My guess most people had no clue all of this would happen.



Never before have so many being so sure they had everything figured out in advance (and that includes bears, the bankers, Paulson, Bernanke & Co.)... Many, if not most things that are staring us right in the face right now will seem completely irrelevant ten, or even five years from now.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225507816][quote author="WINEX" date=1225507434][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225505610]

But as I said earlier, the premiums are a little too steep for me to be interested in options right now. I do think these ultra ETFs and ETNs are wonderful trading vehicles, and can give you a little more of the juice you are after through trading options.</blockquote>
Do you know what the tickers symbols are for the ultra short DOW and ultra short S&P? I know the QID is the ultra short ETF for the QQQQ.</blockquote>


The thought occurred to me that <a href="http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm">this site</a> may be of use to you. Obviously it's geared towards a apocalyptic world view. But I think that seeing some of the products out there could be beneficial. Personally I would recommend that you research corresponding bull market vehicle and use oversold or overbought conditions to position yourself accordingly.</blockquote>


Greed sells... but fear sells even faster!



I fully expect Wall Street will bank on this and we will see a proliferation of bearish funds, newsletters, supposedly "safe haven" investments, etc.



And I fully expect the majority of those will lose their customers money over the long run, as always.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1225510884][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225510700]Jobless rate is inching up to 7.5%, not good news for stocks.</blockquote>


the real jobless rate is much higher. look at the total employed # (around 160 mil, I think) for a much less manipulated #.



we're in a low-growth environment for at least the next decade, and maybe more. but that doesn't mean that equities won't absorb at least a little of all of those Bernankebucks starting to flood the system, or that cash and bonds won't be infinitely more painful in the medium and long term.</blockquote>


I have been receiving credit card offers again, so indeed credit is flowing again.
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1225514215]You're getting ahead of yourself there if you think you got the whole next decade all figured out.

</blockquote>


I'm not claiming to know the particulars, and am very long on stocks at the moment despite my long-term gloom. But the demographics speak for themselves, and it is a very dark picture. How many times a day do I hear mentioned that the Boomers are just starting to retire, and that this bear market has been a great way to scare them out of stocks permanently? Or that rotten demographics were a big part of the deflation Japan experienced a decade ago (along with all of the other moves we've made to emulate that disaster)? About zero - we're a collective ostrich nationally in terms of our reaction to the Boomer retirement wave, and have made what would be a tough predicament into a 100% certain crisis through our mountain of present debt and future entitlements.



US population growth hit a very low nadir in the early 70s - those are the people approaching their peak earning years in the next decade. Do you think they'll have the same positive feedback loop with their investments in the stock market as Boomers enjoyed in the 80s and 90s?



As investment goes, proper use of timing and leverage are almost impossible to get right - but spotting the larger trend is easy. And it ain't pretty until the median Boomer dies, and takes some of those trillions of AARP-mafia entitlements with them. That will be a great day for the country, but it is at least 15-25 years off. Once the stock market starts to look PAST that event, we'll be able to set up a real bull like 1982-2000, with some help from the kids born in the past fifteen years.
 
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