Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="WINEX" date=1226533728][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488701]

If you going to short Panda, better do it quick. Time for great shorting opportunities are going to fade eventually, and sideways trading is where the cash will be as we enter a "dead" period. In that case I would recommend owning a decent amount of shares in several companies and selling covered calls slightly ahead or below the stock depending on which direction things are going.

</blockquote>


Do you have a downside target for the Dow and/or S&P 500?</blockquote>


Around 7k for DOW. That means nothing though and can change for me on a minute by minute basis. I always adjust based on economical factors. As for what we know 7k wouldn't suprise me, if automakers go bust, 7k is guaranteed. However, if Obama all of a sudden announces they want to spend 2 trillion dollars on infastructure such as railroads, subways, highways, schools, energy and water infastructure and expect the DOW to soar like a mofo and I'll quickly become a bull. But as long as our government keeps spending money on items that DONT add value to our economy such as these BS bailouts then the bears will continue to devour.



BTW. Bailout to the automakers is like giving a punctured lifevest to someone trying to stay afloat. Nobody will go out and buy their garbage cars because of this bailout...it will just prolong their death. All we have done is blown 75 billion dollars (25 previously approved and the new 50 they are asking) with no value added. Our govt doesn't really care about GM and Ford, they are worried the millions of job losses and a further blow to the stock market. However, F*** GM and Ford. Let them fail. It is necessary.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226531000][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226529606]Usctrojan, you asked me to post next option opportunities. After doing research last night, BBY, AXP, and still FSLR are the best options. However, I was hoping for a mild opening to buy these, but the market tanked right off the bat and so did these more so than market. So I'm personally waiting to see a pullback in the market, hopefully intraday and then buy puts on these 3. Well 2 I already had plenty on FSLR from when it was around 160 a share (now 120).



So my plays are BBY and AXP, but wait for a pullback as they dropped big pre-open already so the risk on it changes.</blockquote>
Thanks for the recommendations. What month puts would you buy? Jan? Feb? March?</blockquote>


December puts at the strike price close to what the stock is trading. My target for BBY is around 17-18, and AXP around 15-16. However, I hate to see a drop like today before I got a chance to get in. So if it pulls back to levels before todays drop, I'll be a buyer; otherwise look for another apportunity.
 
For today though...I thinking of buying calls. But a very small amount cause its kinda scarry. But the market seems to be forming strength for today and we can rally by end. CSCO and XOM calls. FSLR and GS if you want to get wild and party like its 1999.



Bought 30 XOMKO @ 1.60 (calls)



Sold 30 XOMKO @ 1.38 (calls)



I got punked...
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226541377]For today though...I thinking of buying calls. But a very small amount cause its kinda scarry. But the market seems to be forming strength for today and we can rally by end. CSCO and XOM calls. FSLR and GS if you want to get wild and party like its 1999.



Bought 30 XOMKO @ 1.60 (calls)



Sold 30 XOMKO @ 1.38 (calls)



I got punked...</blockquote>
Doesn't look like this thing is going to rally today. I'm anxious to pick up some more puts, but I want a short covering rally so I can pick them up at cheaper prices. Still holding on tight to my 6 puts. I was going to buy 10 Dec 56 puts on the USO last week but didn't for whatever reason (I'd be up like $10k on that trade..D'OH).
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226548831][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226541377]For today though...I thinking of buying calls. But a very small amount cause its kinda scarry. But the market seems to be forming strength for today and we can rally by end. CSCO and XOM calls. FSLR and GS if you want to get wild and party like its 1999.



Bought 30 XOMKO @ 1.60 (calls)



Sold 30 XOMKO @ 1.38 (calls)



I got punked...</blockquote>
Doesn't look like this thing is going to rally today. I'm anxious to pick up some more puts, but I want a short covering rally so I can pick them up at cheaper prices. Still holding on tight to my 6 puts. I was going to buy 10 Dec 56 puts on the USO last week but didn't for whatever reason (I'd be up like $10k on that trade..D'OH).</blockquote>


Nah my XOM trade above was just like a quick intraday bet as the charts indicated a turnaround. Then they indicated the opposite real quick and I cut my loss. They are november puts too, so they arent meant to be long. I'm still holding on to XOM Decembers, KBH and FSLR. I dumped half of my FSLR puts a couple of days ago, then rebought the half I sold when market popped yesterday. I would love FSLR to go to 50 a share and it might. If that happens, my 3.85 puts will be around 75 or so.
 
Man this is better than having sex. I'm loving this.



At the end of today, I'm going to sell 50% of my puts and start buying a small portion of some beat up value stocks with protective puts. But I think we go lower...
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226550544]Man this is better than having sex. I'm loving this.



At the end of today, I'm going to sell 50% of my puts and start buying a small portion of some beat up value stocks with protective puts. But I think we go lower...</blockquote>


I have very minimal trading knowledge, but could you explain y you buy a stock along with puts? Isn't that betting against urself?
 
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1226552631][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226550544]Man this is better than having sex. I'm loving this.



At the end of today, I'm going to sell 50% of my puts and start buying a small portion of some beat up value stocks with protective puts. But I think we go lower...</blockquote>


I have very minimal trading knowledge, but could you explain y you buy a stock along with puts? Isn't that betting against urself?</blockquote>


You are technically right. Its a wash. However, its merely insurance. For example I bought 1,000 shares of BofA at 17 a share as I felt it was a decent deal. However, I'm not confident that its at the bottom and I think market can go lower. So I bought 10 December puts protecting myself from further downfall. If the stock moves up, the max I can lose is what I put into puts, my gain however is unlimited.



Here is a scenario if stock goes down. BofA goes from 17 to 14. I offset my losses with puts. I sell the puts and buy more shares of BofA to cost average my original position. So its like I bought the stock at like 15 or so. If I have even more cash on the sidelines (which I do) I might buy even more to really cost down.



Or here is a scenario if stock goes up. Lets say BofA goes to 23 a share by end of December. I gain 6 dollars/share or 6k and lose -1.2 or 1.2K on options. My net is the difference.



Buying puts if you are long is a small price to pay for protecting your long position. AND most importantly it allows you to cost average if the stock does indeed fall.



When I trade I always have about 30% cash and rest in various securities. I always want cash for opportunities as they arise all the time. And most importantly to play DEFENSE. Most people lost a great deal during the crash. However, I usually always have deep out of money puts in case we have a crash. We did, and I barely lost anything. However, like I said and I'll repeat again. It gives me an opportunity to buy more so I can cost down. Very big advantage.



Another stock on my radar is BBY. Its a must for me. But retail goes even lower in my opinion so I'll wait. Reason I bought BofA is because Paulson announced they will use the rest of the bailout money to buy even more shares in banks. So at some point they will buy, and it can possibly push prices up.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1226555258]bv, do you typically use a 100:1 ratio when you buy protective puts? Do you typically buy short-term puts and assume any downside risk beyond 30 days?</blockquote>


In order to get as close of a protection possible you need to buy options at the money. So if stock is at 20, buy puts a couple months out at 20 strike. This will insure you.

As far as a month, I typicall only insure myself 1-2 months out. Never longer because alot can change. You never want to buy insurance on your car covering you for 2 years, and then sell the car a year short do you? You have wasted insurance.



But the biggest reason I don't is visibility. Short term...things are likely to continue to go down and probably will for the next month maybe two. After that I can't tell you for sure where we are headed until we have more economic data.



Now the real trick here is playing and adjusting your strike price. For example, if you don't really care that the stock goes down 5-10%, then you might not want to buy puts with a strike price close to what the stock is trading. The closer you get the more protection you get. Lets say you want to protect yourself against a massive move, such as -30 or -40 percent. So in this case buy puts for much much cheaper but a further strike price. With our example earlier of a 20 dollar stock, you might buy puts at 14 strike which will cost you a fraction of a 20 dollar strike put. However at the same time if the stock goes to 18, you won't be protected much at all. However if the stock falls to 10 a share, your cheap put will pick up speed extremelly fast and you offset your losses.



So when I buy puts, I pick a time frame, and then I decide what is the lowest it can go or highest. Then buy accordingly.
 
Intel cut Q4 revenue estimates by 14% after-hours and the stock is down about $1/share or 7%. Microsoft is down below $20 after-hours. Tomorrow may be very ugly...LOOK OUT BELOW.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226566993]Intel cut Q4 revenue estimates by 14% after-hours and the stock is down about $1/share or 7%. Microsoft is down below $20 after-hours. Tomorrow may be very ugly...LOOK OUT BELOW.</blockquote>


Yup. Was on their conference call to see whats up. Ugly. We have enough momentum and potential bad news to break the 7800 barrier I think. If we break that...I wouldn't be suprised if somewhere down the road we ahve a -1500 down day...yum
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1226272430][quote author="socalmd" date=1226248818][quote author="WINEX" date=1226237104][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226234538]First I can't believe you guys are actually considering trading penny stocks...

Whats worse...is some actually doing research on them.

Socalmd is on the money... You think a stock can't go below a penny? Try .000001



You would have more success spinning a wheel and buying a random stocks call option or put option.</blockquote>


Just for the sake of clarity, I did look at their 10k. But it was morbid curiosity, not out of consideration of an investment. Though it is a garbage stock, I was curios to see what SoCalMD had $50k invested in.



I've never invested in a penny stock. But if I had put $200k into a dog like that and watched it go down to $50k, I certainly wouldn't talk about it in a forum.</blockquote>








I agree on the surface it looks like a garbage stock. But this is a recent REVERSE MERGER..thus the new private company(smartwear technologies) merger into a shell(GLGT)...and the new company has yet to file it's 10K or 10Q, so one cannot judge the company on a 10Q it has not yet filed.



For the record, I again do not recommend buying penny stocks. I have and do, but it's not for the weak a heart. I invested in the co because I personally know the CEO and know he is very sharp and honest. If I didn't know him, I'd never have bought so much. In the past I have been an angel investor in many startups. Startups like GLGT are illiquid high risk gambles...which I reserve 10% of my portfolio for.



Just put GLGT on your ticker and watch it for the next 6 months. You may be laughing at me....or kicking yourself.</blockquote>


The 10K i pulled that information from was filed on 10/3/08.</blockquote>




That was just an updateed 10k from the shell co. The newly merged company has yet to file or announce any of their 2008 revenue. All I know is that they project 10 million in rev for 2008 and their current market cap in 1 million. Upside seems decent. But there's always the chance the co is a scam. But like I said, I know the CEO and I think he's legit, but I've been burned before.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226368838][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226368058]

Not sure what a reverse merger is, maybe he meant reverse stock-split? A reverse stock-split will help the company now being listed on the regular exchange which can raise capital. However, I believe you need the stock to be atleast at 0.50 cents a share before you can do reverse stock-split. They are ways away.</blockquote>


You?re right, think he mean?t reverse stock-split.

Misunderstood what he said.

Thought he was referring to one company got rolled up into another using a reverse merger.

Thanks for breaking it down</blockquote>




wrong(respectfully)



I meant reverse merger, not reverse stock split. In fact the reverse merger...The merge of smartwear technologies into GLGT(shell) is finalized from what I understand. Reverse stock splits are almost universally bad, however reverse mergers can be lucrative if the private company(who now becomes public) actually has some revenues.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1226574957][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1226368838][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226368058]

Not sure what a reverse merger is, maybe he meant reverse stock-split? A reverse stock-split will help the company now being listed on the regular exchange which can raise capital. However, I believe you need the stock to be atleast at 0.50 cents a share before you can do reverse stock-split. They are ways away.</blockquote>


You?re right, think he mean?t reverse stock-split.

Misunderstood what he said.

Thought he was referring to one company got rolled up into another using a reverse merger.

Thanks for breaking it down</blockquote>




wrong(respectfully)



I meant reverse merger, not reverse stock split. In fact the reverse merger...The merge of smartwear technologies into GLGT(shell) is finalized from what I understand. Reverse stock splits are almost universally bad, however reverse mergers can be lucrative if the private company(who now becomes public) actually has some revenues.</blockquote>


We know. It was described in detail a couple of posts later if you took the time to read it. Damn this was ages ago too.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226293728]<blockquote>The 52 wk range of this stock is .007 and went up to .08. It's illiquid now, but who knows what the future holds. Nobody even knows this is a functioning company. Totally under the radar. The company smartwear has about 5 million in cash it raised from private placement investors. I don't need this money so I don't have to dump all at once. I plan on holding for a few years. Building a solid company takes time. Just keep it on your ticker.



Funny but true story...growing up my Dad was my soccer coach and our assistant coach was involved in a startup and he asked my Dad to be an investor. My Dad said no way that's too risky. The company turned out to be Pacificare and the assistant coach now lives on the water in Newport. My Dad lives in a 300K house in Murietta.</blockquote>


Someone really fed you some bullshit before you wrote a check to invest into a company worht .01 a share....sigh...I almost feel bad for you.</blockquote>






don't be a hater. I didn't tell you to go buy it. All I said is that I know the CEO and I know extensively about their business plan. I was going to invest in the private company, but those shares are restricted. Have you ever heard of being and angel investor? Many people have made quit a bit of money on startups. Did you know microsoft was a penny stock at one time? In a year's time if GLGT is still .01 or less I will admit I made a bad investment.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1226574720][quote author="WINEX" date=1226272430][quote author="socalmd" date=1226248818][quote author="WINEX" date=1226237104][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226234538]First I can't believe you guys are actually considering trading penny stocks...

Whats worse...is some actually doing research on them.

Socalmd is on the money... You think a stock can't go below a penny? Try .000001



You would have more success spinning a wheel and buying a random stocks call option or put option.</blockquote>


Just for the sake of clarity, I did look at their 10k. But it was morbid curiosity, not out of consideration of an investment. Though it is a garbage stock, I was curios to see what SoCalMD had $50k invested in.



I've never invested in a penny stock. But if I had put $200k into a dog like that and watched it go down to $50k, I certainly wouldn't talk about it in a forum.</blockquote>








I agree on the surface it looks like a garbage stock. But this is a recent REVERSE MERGER..thus the new private company(smartwear technologies) merger into a shell(GLGT)...and the new company has yet to file it's 10K or 10Q, so one cannot judge the company on a 10Q it has not yet filed.



For the record, I again do not recommend buying penny stocks. I have and do, but it's not for the weak a heart. I invested in the co because I personally know the CEO and know he is very sharp and honest. If I didn't know him, I'd never have bought so much. In the past I have been an angel investor in many startups. Startups like GLGT are illiquid high risk gambles...which I reserve 10% of my portfolio for.



Just put GLGT on your ticker and watch it for the next 6 months. You may be laughing at me....or kicking yourself.</blockquote>


The 10K i pulled that information from was filed on 10/3/08.</blockquote>




That was just an updateed 10k from the shell co. The newly merged company has yet to file or announce any of their 2008 revenue. All I know is that they project 10 million in rev for 2008 and their current market cap in 1 million. Upside seems decent. But there's always the chance the co is a scam. But like I said, I know the CEO and I think he's legit, but I've been burned before.</blockquote>


If you look at the message boards for your company (that you are desperately promoting), someone posted an article how your ceo was involved in illegal selling of stock and illegal ways or raising capital in another company he tried to start that went bust...there was some lawsuit on it and funny 25 suckered investors were from california. good luck, and welcome to my first ignore as I don't care to read garbage promotions on a stock trading .01 a share. What is more disturbing you even mention it could be a scam. There is a sucker everywhere...you are one of them.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1226369895]I don't know anything about the company that's being discussed, so this is just a general answer.



A reverse merger into a public shell is where a private company merges with and into a publicly traded company that has been scrubbed of all assets and liabilities (usually post-BK). Following the merger, the public shell takes on the assets and liabilities (and name) of the private company, but remains public. It then files its 10-K and 10-Qs and is a public, reporting company for all intents and purposes.



The theoretical benefit is to avoid the cost and expense (including underwriter and SEC scrutiny) of an IPO. The company doesn't raise any funds in the "going public" transaction, although they can do add-on secondary offerings and sometimes a private investment occurs simultaneously with the reverse merger. Post-merger, the shareholders can sell into the market and get liquidity for their personal holdings.



In my experience, reverse mergers into public company shells are a way for companies that have no business being public to be public without the cost, expense and market validation of an IPO. But in this day of high Sarbanes Oxley compliance costs, one has to ask themselves why a small company deems it to be in their best interests to be publicly traded. Seems like a waste of shareholder resources to me.



The private equity markets are as big as the public markets. If a company has merit, it can get funded through the normal PE channels. In my opinion, some reasons a company reverse merges into a private shell is (1) founder vanity, or (2) in anticipation of a pump and dump. Some companies with unsophisticated management get suckered into it by consultants who specialize in these transactions and believe that it will open up the capital markets. I will not touch, repeat, <strong>I will not touch</strong> a company that has reverse merged into a public shell.



My personal, non-professional opinion.</blockquote>




I disagree. Very few companies go public by an IPO these days due to the tremendous costs. Many good companies go public via the reverse merger route. For example the co that owns American Idol revese mergered into a shell



.http://www.shellstockreview.com/ssr-Elvis-Presley-and-SPEA.html
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1226575256][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226293728]<blockquote>The 52 wk range of this stock is .007 and went up to .08. It's illiquid now, but who knows what the future holds. Nobody even knows this is a functioning company. Totally under the radar. The company smartwear has about 5 million in cash it raised from private placement investors. I don't need this money so I don't have to dump all at once. I plan on holding for a few years. Building a solid company takes time. Just keep it on your ticker.



Funny but true story...growing up my Dad was my soccer coach and our assistant coach was involved in a startup and he asked my Dad to be an investor. My Dad said no way that's too risky. The company turned out to be Pacificare and the assistant coach now lives on the water in Newport. My Dad lives in a 300K house in Murietta.</blockquote>


Someone really fed you some bullshit before you wrote a check to invest into a company worht .01 a share....sigh...I almost feel bad for you.</blockquote>






don't be a hater. I didn't tell you to go buy it. All I said is that I know the CEO and I know extensively about their business plan. I was going to invest in the private company, but those shares are restricted. Have you ever heard of being and angel investor? Many people have made quit a bit of money on startups. Did you know microsoft was a penny stock at one time? In a year's time if GLGT is still .01 or less I will admit I made a bad investment.</blockquote>


Yes I'm hating I didn't give some claim to be CEO 50K and received shares worth a penny each. I'm so angry now, I wish I was you.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226575332][quote author="socalmd" date=1226574720][quote author="WINEX" date=1226272430][quote author="socalmd" date=1226248818][quote author="WINEX" date=1226237104][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226234538]First I can't believe you guys are actually considering trading penny stocks...

Whats worse...is some actually doing research on them.

Socalmd is on the money... You think a stock can't go below a penny? Try .000001



You would have more success spinning a wheel and buying a random stocks call option or put option.</blockquote>


Just for the sake of clarity, I did look at their 10k. But it was morbid curiosity, not out of consideration of an investment. Though it is a garbage stock, I was curios to see what SoCalMD had $50k invested in.



I've never invested in a penny stock. But if I had put $200k into a dog like that and watched it go down to $50k, I certainly wouldn't talk about it in a forum.</blockquote>








I agree on the surface it looks like a garbage stock. But this is a recent REVERSE MERGER..thus the new private company(smartwear technologies) merger into a shell(GLGT)...and the new company has yet to file it's 10K or 10Q, so one cannot judge the company on a 10Q it has not yet filed.



For the record, I again do not recommend buying penny stocks. I have and do, but it's not for the weak a heart. I invested in the co because I personally know the CEO and know he is very sharp and honest. If I didn't know him, I'd never have bought so much. In the past I have been an angel investor in many startups. Startups like GLGT are illiquid high risk gambles...which I reserve 10% of my portfolio for.



Just put GLGT on your ticker and watch it for the next 6 months. You may be laughing at me....or kicking yourself.</blockquote>


The 10K i pulled that information from was filed on 10/3/08.</blockquote>




That was just an updateed 10k from the shell co. The newly merged company has yet to file or announce any of their 2008 revenue. All I know is that they project 10 million in rev for 2008 and their current market cap in 1 million. Upside seems decent. But there's always the chance the co is a scam. But like I said, I know the CEO and I think he's legit, but I've been burned before.</blockquote>


If you look at the message boards for your company (that you are desperately promoting), someone posted an article how your ceo was involved in illegal selling of stock and illegal ways or raising capital in another company he tried to start that went bust...there was some lawsuit on it and funny 25 suckered investors were from california. good luck, and welcome to my first ignore as I don't care to read garbage promotions on a stock trading .01 a share. What is more disturbing you even mention it could be a scam. There is a sucker everywhere...you are one of them.</blockquote>


Fair enough. But I am not promoting it. It's just like someone buying 200K worth of Wachovia and now having nothing.
 
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