Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226464777][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226464576]Just when you think you can relax, the market gives you new opportunities....love it, love it, love it...</blockquote>
You can never relax in this market...the volatility gives you great opportunities but can turn your position on a dime. Looks like we are selling off into the closing. A close below the 3 Nov 6th lows and we for sure are heading for a re-test in the next few weeks. There are a few wildcards out there....retail sales data on Friday and possible GM bailout.</blockquote>


Don't forget WMT (a monster) is reporting on Thursday. Also, redemption day for Hedge Funds is coming up this thurs or friday I believe.



If WMT guides bad...they will reconfirm that consumers aren't either.

Retail sales and jobless claims well recomfirm both of the above.

GM bailout doesn't go through...look out below. As several hundred thousand and potential millions of jobs can be lost here.



So too many negatives not to place bets on puts. I'm doing deep out of money puts as if some of the above fail...they will pick up speed so fast its not even funny.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226465172][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226464777][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226464576]Just when you think you can relax, the market gives you new opportunities....love it, love it, love it...</blockquote>
You can never relax in this market...the volatility gives you great opportunities but can turn your position on a dime. Looks like we are selling off into the closing. A close below the 3 Nov 6th lows and we for sure are heading for a re-test in the next few weeks. There are a few wildcards out there....retail sales data on Friday and possible GM bailout.</blockquote>


Don't forget WMT (a monster) is reporting on Thursday. Also, redemption day for Hedge Funds is coming up this thurs or friday I believe.



If WMT guides bad...they will reconfirm that consumers aren't either.

Retail sales and jobless claims well recomfirm both of the above.

GM bailout doesn't go through...look out below. As several hundred thousand and potential millions of jobs can be lost here.



So too many negatives not to place bets on puts. I'm doing deep out of money puts as if some of the above fail...they will pick up speed so fast its not even funny.</blockquote>
I'd love to trade on Thursday and Friday, but I'll be traveling to the east coast and won't be in front of the computer so that's why I sold my Nov puts today. I feel very comfy with the QQQQ puts as the NASDAQ is in the worst technical shape of all the indexs (google is getting very close to trading in the $200s).



CNBC talking heads are asking their guests why we can't really off the Fannie Mae "good" news, what idiots. Can they not see through the BS and understand that the Fannie Mae & Citi actions won't do jack sh1t because they won't be decreasing the loan balances permanently?



I find that the stock market is behaving a lot like the housing market, it's trying to have a washout and find a bottom but all the damn manipulation? If the market were to have a huge selloff, I'd be more than happy to start picking up stocks for longer term. Until then, I'm sitting in cash and playing with options.
 
I think you are doing the right thing usctrojan.



"Some" here don't like the doom and gloom talk but too bad; I'm a realist. I don't live in cloud9 or some peachy world where golden coins fall instead of rain and cotton candy grows instead of grass. I always weight every possible negative/positive that can happen and prepare myself for it. I take what the market gives me.



Just like when housing went up up up; everybody liked to brag how well they are doing. But when the bad times roll, nobody likes to talk about it and choose to place themselves in denial.



I do the opposite. I like to think about the worst possible situations and PREPARE myself for them. To give you a glimpse on how dark I like to think...I have already played out a scenario where the whole world collapses and each nation just thinks about survival. Where wars will break out leading to WWIII as that is the only option to clean up the mess we got ourselves into. I mean we did prosper as a nation because of WWII now didn't we?

Now I pray to God, that that doesn't happen. But I've geared myself mentally for it.



Always expect the worst, and everything else will be a gift.
 
Geez. Trojan and BlackVault, you guys are really into this stuff. Do you guys trade stocks for a living? I have always lost trading stocks, so i don't do it. I guess we all have different gifts.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226474606]Geez. Trojan and BlackVault, you guys are really into this stuff. Do you guys trade stocks for a living? <strong>I have always lost trading stocks</strong>, so i don't do it. I guess we all have different gifts.</blockquote>


I do. Have been for about 10 years. I don't think usctrojan does, however he just might.



For the bolded statement....

Some have to lose money so others can make money... ;)
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226470544]I think you are doing the right thing usctrojan.



"Some" here don't like the doom and gloom talk but too bad; I'm a realist. I don't live in cloud9 or some peachy world where golden coins fall instead of rain and cotton candy grows instead of grass. I always weight every possible negative/positive that can happen and prepare myself for it. I take what the market gives me.



Just like when housing went up up up; everybody liked to brag how well they are doing. But when the bad times roll, nobody likes to talk about it and choose to place themselves in denial.



I do the opposite. I like to think about the worst possible situations and PREPARE myself for them. To give you a glimpse on how dark I like to think...I have already played out a scenario where the whole world collapses and each nation just thinks about survival. Where wars will break out leading to WWIII as that is the only option to clean up the mess we got ourselves into. I mean we did prosper as a nation because of WWII now didn't we?

Now I pray to God, that that doesn't happen. But I've geared myself mentally for it.



Always expect the worst, and everything else will be a gift.</blockquote>
Or as my grandfather used to tell me in Czech..."expect the worst and you'll never be unprepared and disappointed" (translation)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226474606]Geez. Trojan and BlackVault, you guys are really into this stuff. Do you guys trade stocks for a living? I have always lost trading stocks, so i don't do it. I guess we all have different gifts.</blockquote>
Panda, I have about $50k in my trading account and another $50k in a CD. I have over $100k in unrealized short term capital losses from my tech bubble trading days so my goal is to eventually use that up and pay off my car loan and student loans with the proceeds. I work at a regional bank and make a very decent living (*knocking on wood*) and trade a few times a week.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226475459][quote author="PANDA" date=1226474606]Geez. Trojan and BlackVault, you guys are really into this stuff. Do you guys trade stocks for a living? <strong>I have always lost trading stocks</strong>, so i don't do it. I guess we all have different gifts.</blockquote>


I do. Have been for about 10 years. I don't think usctrojan does, however he just might.



For the bolded statement....

Some have to lose money so others can make money... ;)</blockquote>


BV, that is a real interesting lifestyle. I am assuming you are self employed. So do you wake up everything morning and just trade stocks all day at your apartment in Orchard Hills and make a living doing this? That's really cool... Good for you! Now, I know who to PM if Panda wants short his first stock :)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226477700][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226475459][quote author="PANDA" date=1226474606]Geez. Trojan and BlackVault, you guys are really into this stuff. Do you guys trade stocks for a living? <strong>I have always lost trading stocks</strong>, so i don't do it. I guess we all have different gifts.</blockquote>


I do. Have been for about 10 years. I don't think usctrojan does, however he just might.



For the bolded statement....

Some have to lose money so others can make money... ;)</blockquote>


BV, that is a real interesting lifestyle. I am assuming you are self employed. So do you wake up everything morning and just trade stocks all day at your apartment in Orchard Hills and make a living doing this? That's really cool... Good for you! Now, I know who to PM if Panda wants short his first stock :)</blockquote>


Yeah that about sums it up. I wake up around 4-5am so I can do some news recap and have a clear mind going into my trades. When days are slow, I either experiment with cooking or I might clean something. Or I might build different stock model scenarios and research. Or I'll make some trades for my clients based on their objectives and risk.



I don't always trade at home. Sometimes I'll go to peets coffee and trade outside, or the beach on warmer days. However, the way the market has been last month or so...I'm glued to my desk. It is an interesting life and if you like what you are doing, its not even work but play time. I love it and I'd do it for minimum wage assuming I can get by but I can't.



If you going to short Panda, better do it quick. Time for great shorting opportunities are going to fade eventually, and sideways trading is where the cash will be as we enter a "dead" period. In that case I would recommend owning a decent amount of shares in several companies and selling covered calls slightly ahead or below the stock depending on which direction things are going.



For example, I have xx shares of CSCO. So once this bear ends, I'll probably use my cash reserves to buy more shares and start writing covered calls to collect a steady cashflow. xx shares = xx covered calls at about 1-1.50 premium a month will net xxxx a month +/- any movement in stock price.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226470544]

Always expect the worst, and everything else will be a gift.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Or as my grandfather used to tell me in Czech..."expect the worst and you'll never be unprepared and disappointed" (translation)</blockquote>


I like yours way better.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488877][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226470544]

Always expect the worst, and everything else will be a gift.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Or as my grandfather used to tell me in Czech..."expect the worst and you'll never be unprepared and disappointed" (translation)</blockquote>


I like yours way better.</blockquote>
Yeah, I learned a lot from my grandfather. Btw, did you notice how the market traded almost exactly like the Nikkei? Man, sometimes they make it so obvious. When you have some time this weekend, I'd like to take you out to lunch and pick your brain a bit. I have a significant amount of time to trade most days before I actually have to do work so I'd like to play around a bit more in the market once I get my bonus in Jan. and when my CD matures in April.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488701] So once this bear ends, I'll probably use my cash reserves to buy more shares and start writing covered calls to collect a steady cashflow. </blockquote>


I think I'm ready to start writing way out of the money calls on stuff I like and own. I just wanted to have enough experience as a buyer (sucker, of course, as most net buyers are) before taking that step. Writing any kind of options paper has infinitely more nerve-wracking implications than just buying it, of course, nor is it as fun (and mindless) as just flipping 2x leveraged stuff.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1226491765][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488701] So once this bear ends, I'll probably use my cash reserves to buy more shares and start writing covered calls to collect a steady cashflow. </blockquote>


I think I'm ready to start writing way out of the money calls on stuff I like and own. I just wanted to have enough experience as a buyer (sucker, of course, as most net buyers are) before taking that step. Writing any kind of options paper has infinitely more nerve-wracking implications than just buying it, of course, nor is it as fun (and mindless) as just flipping 2x leveraged stuff.</blockquote>
Wait until there is a short covering rally before you do it.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1226491765][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488701] So once this bear ends, I'll probably use my cash reserves to buy more shares and start writing covered calls to collect a steady cashflow. </blockquote>


I think I'm ready to start writing way out of the money calls on stuff I like and own. I just wanted to have enough experience as a buyer (sucker, of course, as most net buyers are) before taking that step. Writing any kind of options paper has infinitely more nerve-wracking implications than just buying it, of course, nor is it as fun (and mindless) as just flipping 2x leveraged stuff.</blockquote>


Writing covered calls in a bear market nets you nothing but a little protection when it does go down. If you do any kind of covered call writing in a bear market you want to do it opposite of what you said. Not deep out of money, but deep in the money. Writing deep out of money calls will give you a very small premium when you can collect a greater premium writing at or in the money contracts.



The further out you write calls, the more you are technically expecting prices to move upwards. If CSCO is trading at 17 a share, and you write a call for 25 for .10 cents, you get like 10 bucks for each call. Well the chances it hitting 25 is almost nothing, so you will end up collecting that 10 cents less transaction costs. However given the current market there is also an excellent chance CSCO will not go past 18 a share in the next month or so. So in this case I would write a call probably at the money or slightly in the money collecting a dollar or two dollar premium.



You only want to write a deep out of money if its a bullish market. So if csco is 17 and you think in two months it will be at 24, write a call for 24 or 25. That way you capture the appreciation of the stock price + a bit of premium.



Also remember, you have to own 100 shares of the stock for each call you write. So if you have 100 shares of CSCO you can write only 1 call. So if you write one for a 10 cent premium, transaction costs will cost more giving you an instant loss.



But honestly, in a bear market...either write deep in the money covered calls OR I would just buy puts to protect your longs.



I wrote this quick while watching tv, so ignore any errors. If I didn't explain something right, let me know.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226490114][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488877][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226470544]

Always expect the worst, and everything else will be a gift.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Or as my grandfather used to tell me in Czech..."expect the worst and you'll never be unprepared and disappointed" (translation)</blockquote>


I like yours way better.</blockquote>
Yeah, I learned a lot from my grandfather. Btw, did you notice how the market traded almost exactly like the Nikkei? Man, sometimes they make it so obvious. When you have some time this weekend, I'd like to take you out to lunch and pick your brain a bit. I have a significant amount of time to trade most days before I actually have to do work so I'd like to play around a bit more in the market once I get my bonus in Jan. and when my CD matures in April.</blockquote>


Good for you that you can learn from someone. Absorb all you can from him because learning can be very expensive. I started investing in college and had no clue what I was doing. I blew through 4k of savings. Then I took out 5K in scholarship money (which i lied to them telling them I need it for school supplies like a laptop etc.) and lost it too...Then I took out a college loan for 8K and the rest is history...But it can be expensive to learn on your own, so any shortcuts will help.



But yes, you can get great insight on how we will do based on Nikkei or Europe. However, most of the time its the other way around where they follow US markets even though we are a day behind them, or can go complete opposite. So be cautious. I keep up with the asian and euro markets as many economcal moves they make can impact us here. Interest rate cuts, bailouts, Chinas GDP growth etc...



As far as lunch, yeah sure...no problem. Let me know.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226458877][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226454539][quote author="graphrix" date=1226396103]I heart volatility. Sold the BAC puts for $1.65 today. This idiot made a 65% return in just a few days. Now I just need to look for the next opportunity, and I still feel that volatility will rule the day. Mmmm... heavy volume on the near the money GS calls...</blockquote>


I hope you got my PM last night that GS calls aren't a good play right now...</blockquote>


Well looks like the market is turning around and GS is blowing away. Hopefully you still went with your instinct if this moves higher.</blockquote>


I didn't go with it. I like to keep the costs down for the most part, and the GS options were/are pretty high. I will continue to watch it, as it has been a volatile stock. There has been many an instinct that I wished I had acted on, and this will certainly not be the last.
 
Usctrojan, you asked me to post next option opportunities. After doing research last night, BBY, AXP, and still FSLR are the best options. However, I was hoping for a mild opening to buy these, but the market tanked right off the bat and so did these more so than market. So I'm personally waiting to see a pullback in the market, hopefully intraday and then buy puts on these 3. Well 2 I already had plenty on FSLR from when it was around 160 a share (now 120).



So my plays are BBY and AXP, but wait for a pullback as they dropped big pre-open already so the risk on it changes.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226529606]Usctrojan, you asked me to post next option opportunities. After doing research last night, BBY, AXP, and still FSLR are the best options. However, I was hoping for a mild opening to buy these, but the market tanked right off the bat and so did these more so than market. So I'm personally waiting to see a pullback in the market, hopefully intraday and then buy puts on these 3. Well 2 I already had plenty on FSLR from when it was around 160 a share (now 120).



So my plays are BBY and AXP, but wait for a pullback as they dropped big pre-open already so the risk on it changes.</blockquote>
Thanks for the recommendations. What month puts would you buy? Jan? Feb? March?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226488701]

If you going to short Panda, better do it quick. Time for great shorting opportunities are going to fade eventually, and sideways trading is where the cash will be as we enter a "dead" period. In that case I would recommend owning a decent amount of shares in several companies and selling covered calls slightly ahead or below the stock depending on which direction things are going.

</blockquote>


Do you have a downside target for the Dow and/or S&P 500?
 
Uh oh, look out guys...the 1-month treasury bill is yielding .01% and the 3-month treasury bill is yielding .13%. The NASDAQ is 35 points away from the intraday low of Oct. 10th.
 
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