Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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perky oil, shorts covering equities and moving into new treasury shorts, buying action sparked by tech nerds who liked the double-bottom aspect as compared to the low a month ago.



another day, another showing of No Market for Old Men (featuring a preview trailer of the upcoming adaptation of "The Road")
 
I don't mind rallies like this. Like I said, they are very telling on who is weak and who is strong.



I'm betting on collapse of american express and capital one as people default on credit cards...axp is already hemmorrhaging money big time.
 
2-day Double top formed...this isn't good. Unless they come up with some miracle plan over the weekend, I think this is the extent of the rally. I believe next week will be the week we penetrate 7800 Oct 10 intraday low...



Have a great weekend
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226725202]2-day Double top formed...this isn't good. Unless they come up with some miracle plan over the weekend, I think this is the extent of the rally. I believe next week will be the week we penetrate 7800 Oct 10 intraday low...



Have a great weekend</blockquote>
Man, I missed so much the past day and half...could have made a few bucks if I wasn't traveling. Oh well, each day brings new opportunities. Do you still like the FSLR put play?
 
I like it if you believe we go lower. I bought puts when it was at low 160s so I'm already in green territory and I purchased some more when market went up 550 pts or so yesterday along with american express puts.



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion.



I personally think we break 7800, but I want some long exposure as well. I'll still party with shorts, just not hard core ;)



Stay tuned though...G20 meeting is this weekend where a bunch of morons will decide that they can't do shit to stop us from going into recession....



BTW I heard rumors that Credit Seusse and UBS have 3 trillion dollars worth of exposure to credit swaps or toxic debt. I tried to search on that, but I can't find any info. I mean if that is true...and they go down....who will bail them out? Can anybody even bail them out?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



BTW I heard rumors that Credit Seusse and UBS have 3 trillion dollars worth of exposure to credit swaps or toxic debt. I tried to search on that, but I can't find any info. I mean if that is true...and they go down....who will bail them out? Can anybody even bail them out?</blockquote>


So far, I do not remember any bank admitting to how much CDS exposure they have. Who might bail them out? Who has 3 trillion in USD? As far as I know, no one, even no Central Bank has that much.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1226774401][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



BTW I heard rumors that Credit Seusse and UBS have 3 trillion dollars worth of exposure to credit swaps or toxic debt. I tried to search on that, but I can't find any info. I mean if that is true...and they go down....who will bail them out? Can anybody even bail them out?</blockquote>


So far, I do not remember any bank admitting to how much CDS exposure they have. Who might bail them out? Who has 3 trillion in USD? As far as I know, no one, even no Central Bank has that much.</blockquote>


Thats my point. Nobody. More I learn the more I don't dare not have any puts, atleast enought to protect my longs if not more.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226796823][quote author="awgee" date=1226774401][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



BTW I heard rumors that Credit Seusse and UBS have 3 trillion dollars worth of exposure to credit swaps or toxic debt. I tried to search on that, but I can't find any info. I mean if that is true...and they go down....who will bail them out? Can anybody even bail them out?</blockquote>


So far, I do not remember any bank admitting to how much CDS exposure they have. Who might bail them out? Who has 3 trillion in USD? As far as I know, no one, even no Central Bank has that much.</blockquote>


Thats my point. Nobody. More I learn the more I don't dare not have any puts, atleast enought to protect my longs if not more.</blockquote>


Sooo-o-o ... , if Credit Suisse and UBS have more or way more CDS exposure than they can make good on, what are their options? Ask the US Federal Reserve for huge currency swaps? Or default? If they default, what will be the consequences?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion. </blockquote>


based on my EW count, next week marks trade-able multi-month bottom.

Economy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.
 
[quote author="ocrebel" date=1226803465][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion. </blockquote>


based on my EW count, next week marks tradeable multi-month bottom.

Econemy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.</blockquote>
What is this EW count that you speak of?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226803736][quote author="ocrebel" date=1226803465][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion. </blockquote>


based on my EW count, next week marks tradeable multi-month bottom.

Econemy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.</blockquote>
What is this EW count that you speak of?</blockquote>


<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave_theory">Elliot Wave</a>
 
<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/trading-tbp-conversation-with-br/">Barry Ritholtz was interviewed by tradingmarkets.com</a>. I highly recommend reading it if you trade.
 
Man I had a bad trade day today. Didn't lose that much (about 4K), but each trade went completely wrong. When I went to buy, stocks went down...when I shorted, stocks went up...over and over and over again...Same with calls/puts



I didn't get a single trade correct. I simply shut down my screens, and went to take a walk. My emotions clearly got ahead of me, so I'm done for the day.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226978870]Man I had a bad trade day today. Didn't lose that much (about 4K), but each trade went completely wrong. When I went to buy, stocks went down...when I shorted, stocks went up...over and over and over again...Same with calls/puts



I didn't get a single trade correct. I simply shut down my screens, and went to take a walk. My emotions clearly got ahead of me, so I'm done for the day.</blockquote>


Know when to hold em and know when to fold em.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226978870]Man I had a bad trade day today. Didn't lose that much (about 4K), but each trade went completely wrong. When I went to buy, stocks went down...when I shorted, stocks went up...over and over and over again...Same with calls/puts



I didn't get a single trade correct. I simply shut down my screens, and went to take a walk. My emotions clearly got ahead of me, so I'm done for the day.</blockquote>
Yeah, very weird action today. I was playing around a bit today since I'm all cash now. I picked up 10 Nov 30 QQQQ puts @ $1.98 and was down a few hundred in the blink of an idea. Then I picked up some 10 more puts @ $1.78 and another 20 @ $1.58. Sold all 40 puts @ $1.80 which resulted for a profit of about $500 (wish I would have held onto them longer cuz those puts are now @ $1.95)....oh well. The telling sign for me that the market wasn't gonna hold it's gains where the advance/decline figures for all of the indexs...way negative, like 2-1 and 3-1.
 
I did buy AA, C and BBY at the end of today to join CSCO and XOM.



Slowly shifting portfolio towards long-term with covered calls and S&P puts for protection.



Oh and AAPL.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226997845]I did buy AA, C and BBY at the end of today to join CSCO and XOM.



Slowly shifting portfolio towards long-term with covered calls and S&P puts for protection.



Oh and AAPL.</blockquote>


It's none of my business, but is the AA intended to be a long term holding?
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1227004960][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226997845]I did buy AA, C and BBY at the end of today to join CSCO and XOM.



Slowly shifting portfolio towards long-term with covered calls and S&P puts for protection.



Oh and AAPL.</blockquote>


It's none of my business, but is the AA intended to be a long term holding?</blockquote>


All of them are. I'm still bearish, but slowly accumulating various positions and writing calls for steady income. If any of them move 25% upwards they are out of my portfolio...So if AA moves up 25% tomorrow? I won't be long anymore on it.



Plus the these long holdings make up about 20% of my portfolio.



DOW still goes to 7K imo.



I'm suprised you asked if AA is long and not C. C will probably never move back to the same level it was before.
 
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