Yup, inflation/supply chain/labor costs are what I'm guessing. I got quotes Q2 and Q4 2020 and they had already gone up slightly in those 6 months. Then some people I know who signed in the last 2 months is 10%+ higher than when I signed in Q4 2020. Also, most installers are using Enphase IQ8 microinverters now vs IQ7... don't know what the wholesale cost difference is, probably minor but still an increase.
I think on the low end will be $2.90-$3/W. That's what some people I know got who signed in the last 2 months. Tesla is at $2.74/W.
If I could give advice, it would be definitely too oversize your system, esp if you want to zero out your utility bill. I calculated my system size correctly based on kWh usage, but with the way TOU rates work (pre-solar I was on tiered rate, not TOU) you pretty much have to generate 1.5x kWh to offset 1 kWh used during on-peak hours (4-9pm). So you need to generate a lot more kWh than you think. I'm looking into adding panels to my less than year old system to get in before NEM 3.0 kicks in in April.