Shady Canyon

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Actually, some asking prices have dropped into the low-$4 million range. Look at 59 Canyon Creek, now listed for $4,395,000. It's been at that price for weeks and no takers. What does that mean? Well, it means there are no buyers and therefore the mid-high $3's can't be far behind!



Meanwhile, some sellers stubbornly hold out trying to make a profit. Good luck with that! Look at 28 Black Falcon - been chasing the market down for a year now. Same with 59 Boulder View. No one is going to pay in the 5's for these homes. 4's - unlikely. 3's - now you'll generate some interest but let's face it - there just aren't many people that can really afford a $3+ million dollar home. 99% of the people in this area can't qualify for a $1 million dollar mortgage now.



My take: many of these sellers will hang on and pay $35,000+ per month carry until they are within a few months of insolvency, at which point they will have no choice but to drop their prices to sell immediately. Only then will they realize that - surprise - there aren't any buyers! That's because we're in a DEPRESSION, and people don't buy things in a depression because they have no money.



The first sellers to drop their price are going to be the winners. Once a few Shady properties go into foreclosure, all prices will drop and it is going to be years and years before they recover.
 
There's a new listing in Shady Canyon:

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Prairie-Grass-92603/home/5899759">26 Prairie Grass @ $3.295M</a>



The pictures are really nice. I really like how they played with the colors.



At $630/sq. ft. it is below the Shady Canyon average of about $800 which is good.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/2426/CA/Irvine/Shady-Canyon">Shady Canyon Neighborhood Trends</a>
 
I heard there are currently 42 listings in Shady Canyon presently. How many households are there in Orange County or who want to live in Orange County that can even afford a $4mil+ property, let alone are actually in the market. And there are a few areas in OC that compete for that market. The land purchase agreement states that the buyer will begin building within one year of purchase and finished within 3 years of purchase. Even with the Irvine Company being lenient of enforcement of that portion of the purchase contract, which they are, there will still be a lot more outrageously priced homes built and listed for sale. Is it just me, or does it seem like the Shady Canyon properties will be sitting on the market for a lo-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-ong time? And I wonder how long it will take before one of the Shady Canyon resident lawyers sues The Irvine Company for breach of contract by not enforcing the build out provisions?

By the way, 24 Cactus is my new favorite home. And it sure is funny to hear the open house agents saying, "The builder is motivated" on a $7mil property.
 
awgee: 24 Cactus, To no surprise another Attorney building a spec home in the greater Shady/Newport Coast area. When will these Attorneys and Doctors ever learn that they are late to the party, the keg is empty! FWIW - the home is assessed at $4.6m with a $6.0m construction loan on it, that owner better pray really hard for a buyer, taking into account Rob Glass just dropped the price on his spec home near $1.0m.
 
[quote author="sell4u" date=1227231677]awgee: 24 Cactus, To no surprise another Attorney building a spec home in the greater Shady/Newport Coast area. When will these Attorneys and Doctors ever learn that they are late to the party, the keg is empty! FWIW - the home is assessed at $4.6m with a $6.0m construction loan on it, that owner better pray really hard for a buyer, taking into account Rob Glass just dropped the price on his spec home near $1.0m.</blockquote>


Agreed, leave building spec homes to the pros.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227241571][quote author="sell4u" date=1227231677]awgee: 24 Cactus, To no surprise another Attorney building a spec home in the greater Shady/Newport Coast area. When will these Attorneys and Doctors ever learn that they are late to the party, the keg is empty! FWIW - the home is assessed at $4.6m with a $6.0m construction loan on it, that owner better pray really hard for a buyer, taking into account Rob Glass just dropped the price on his spec home near $1.0m.</blockquote>


Agreed, leave building spec homes to the pros.</blockquote>


LOL, you wouldn't want to hire me, BK, and IR as your attorney or doctor, but we just might be able to help you get a home built. I'm just glad there are some attorneys and doctors on IHB that didn't follow into the Kool-Aid induced money losing ponzi scheme Shady Canyon has turned out to be. I bet there is a doctor out there who wishes he never bought one Miami hi-rise condo, let alone multiple condos.
 
Here is an interesting new sale in Shady Canyon: 95 Canyon Creek. The home is 7,696 sf, and just closed escrow at 5,200,000 if what my broker tells me is correct. This puts the price at a little over $677/sf. I have seen at least 20 of the 50 houses for sale in Shady Canyon, and this home (which was listed at $5,695,000 shortly after its completion a few months ago) was in my opinion the absolute best of them. My husband is a commercial developer, and he agrees with me that the building cost had to be at least $100/foot more than anything else we have seen. This builder knew what he was doing, not only in producing a home of such quality, but in understanding the market and leaving greed out of the equation. I believe at one point during construction the asking price of this property was near $7 million (again relying on the broker's information), but once it was completed in this down market it was priced to sell, he took an even lower offer, closed escrow a few short months after finishing the house, and got out of Shady Canyon before it completely hits the tank.
 
[quote author="sanctuary" date=1228456868]Here is an interesting new sale in Shady Canyon: 95 Canyon Creek. The home is 7,696 sf, and just closed escrow at 5,200,000 if what my broker tells me is correct. This puts the price at a little over $677/sf. I have seen at least 20 of the 50 houses for sale in Shady Canyon, and this home (which was listed at $5,695,000 shortly after its completion a few months ago) was in my opinion the absolute best of them. My husband is a commercial developer, and he agrees with me that the building cost had to be at least $100/foot more than anything else we have seen. This builder knew what he was doing, not only in producing a home of such quality, but in understanding the market and leaving greed out of the equation. I believe at one point during construction the asking price of this property was near $7 million (again relying on the broker's information), but once it was completed in this down market it was priced to sell, he took an even lower offer, closed escrow a few short months after finishing the house, and got out of Shady Canyon before it completely hits the tank.</blockquote>


Welcome Santuary, appreciate your post and your thoughts relative to this sale.
 
Sanc,

I heard a rumor that the price was $5 million even for 95 Canyon Creek. But the official closing price was $5.2. Whatever it was, I agree with your assessment - the house was one of the highest quality homes I have seen in Shady and much nicer than other offerings in the 5 & 6 million range. Beautiful finishes, lots of attention to detail. Big. It did start out in the $7 million range, but the seller lowered his price a couple of times and then (wisely) accepted a realistic price which was much lower than his asking price. Good for him!
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1228479980]Sanc,

I heard a rumor that the price was $5 million even for 95 Canyon Creek. But the official closing price was $5.2. Whatever it was, I agree with your assessment - the house was one of the highest quality homes I have seen in Shady and much nicer than other offerings in the 5 & 6 million range. Beautiful finishes, lots of attention to detail. Big. It did start out in the $7 million range, but the seller lowered his price a couple of times and then (wisely) accepted a realistic price which was much lower than his asking price. Good for him!</blockquote>


County says somewhere between, at $5,070,000 (but yes, it is closed in MLS at $5.2M).

How about that second!



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/95CanyonCreek.JPG" alt="" />
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1228480975][quote author="Zulu" date=1228479980]Sanc,

I heard a rumor that the price was $5 million even for 95 Canyon Creek. But the official closing price was $5.2. Whatever it was, I agree with your assessment - the house was one of the highest quality homes I have seen in Shady and much nicer than other offerings in the 5 & 6 million range. Beautiful finishes, lots of attention to detail. Big. It did start out in the $7 million range, but the seller lowered his price a couple of times and then (wisely) accepted a realistic price which was much lower than his asking price. Good for him!</blockquote>


County says somewhere between, at $5,070,000 (but yes, it is closed in MLS at $5.2M).

How about that second!



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/95CanyonCreek.JPG" alt="" /></blockquote>


If you are feeling envious, it may make you feel better that at most $1,100,000 of that mortgage is deductible and probably the deductible amount is less than that.
 
Well, if 95 C.Creek could only get $5,070,000, then that means most of the houses that are asking $5+ million should be selling in the low, low 4's. Like 24 Wellspring, 28 Black Falcon, 59 Boulder View for example. I wonder how many more months/years these sellers can hang on to these properties trying to get prices that no one is willing to pay.
 
25 Blue Heron scheduled for auction - 12/16 12pm 700 W. Civic Center Dr. (unless its postponed)

Any insiders know if this is the first home going to auction in Shady Canyon?
 
[quote author="sell4u" date=1228789022]25 Blue Heron scheduled for auction - 12/16 12pm 700 W. Civic Center Dr. (unless its postponed)

Any insiders know if this is the first home going to auction in Shady Canyon?</blockquote>


Umm-m-m, isn't the owner of 25 Blue Heron a rather well know realtor?
 
The last asking price on Redfin for 25 Blue Heron was $5,495,000, and the original selling price 6/4/04 was $5,780,000. Not only was there negative appreciation, but property taxes of $71,945/year and HOA dues of around $6,000/year. Ouch! That was an expensive economics lesson!



So let's say the current market value is in the low 4's, primarily because newer homes of the same size can be bought for not that much more. A spec buyer is going to shoot for a 30% return, and a quick sale will require it to be priced in the high 3's. Figuring it needs a little TLC as well, say $50,000, means the most a spec buyer would want to pay for this home is around $2,950,000. Oh well, there go the comps! Chances of actually snagging an owner-buyer are probably not very good - who really watches auctions anyway unless you're in the business? I wouldn't have known about this if I hadn't seen it here.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1228789463][quote author="sell4u" date=1228789022]25 Blue Heron scheduled for auction - 12/16 12pm 700 W. Civic Center Dr. (unless its postponed)

Any insiders know if this is the first home going to auction in Shady Canyon?</blockquote>


Umm-m-m, isn't the owner of 25 Blue Heron a rather well know realtor?</blockquote>


yeap
 
Zulu: My $.02 - I think anyone would be absolutely insane to buy this home with the intention of thinking they are going to flip it anytime in the near future. Too much inventory in Shady Canyon for a new flipper right now, supply > demand, and will stay that way for a long time, and the fact that homes are not selling, prices going down. This home (at whatever price its sold) will be a buy and hold for quite a few years. The home is actually really nice, needs no work I've been to it (atleast last time I was there it was really nice). I'll have to check back on that NTS skek.
 
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