President Trump

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Liar Loan said:
Nothing but a bunch of grumpy old white men there in Elkhart, Indiana.  Probably all brainwashed too.

I mean look at Steven Good, the homeless guy.  What does he have to complain about?  He should be thankful for his healthcare, and the stimulus package that provided shovel ready jobs to his community.
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You really really love your Fox talking points. 

Yes...nothing has happened to Elkart.

In the end, the key to Elkhart?s recovery turned out to be the old stalwart, the RV. As the US economy improved so did demand for mobile homes. Two manufacturers took over the old Monaco plant. Employment rose, median income returned to pre-crisis levels and the poverty rate fell to its lowest point since 2008. RV manufacturers say they are now having trouble finding enough new workers to meet expansion.

Miller established a company, Elkhart Sales and Service, offering RV maintenance. Bumpas did some one-off jobs there but when business picked up he began to work full time.

So does Obama at least deserve credit from building the economy back up? Bumpas scoffs.

?Er ? well, I don?t know. In my personal opinion it?s whoever controls the fuel prices. They have dropped drastically which allows people to do more with these RVs and stuff,? he said.

McGann also ended up working for Miller after losing his job in the paint shop at Monaco Coach.

?At the time I was pretty panicked. I didn?t know what I was going to do,? he said.

McGann, 45, is also hesitant to credit the president for the reversal in Elkhart?s fortunes.

?I?m not that knowledgeable. I?d have to dig into it a bit more. Possibly. I just believe that the economy in the United States, in my opinion, is always on a 10-year cycle. Just like fashion, it comes and goes,? he said.

Elkhart?s Republican mayor, Timothy Neese, offers faint praise for Obama for visiting the city.

?I think he deserves some of the credit. Any time a sitting president comes to the community, that?s a major undertaking regardless of the economy. So I?m willing to indicate that I think the president?s presence here was certainly a positive encounter for us,? he said.

But asked if Obama deserves credit for reviving the US economy and so the RV industry, Neese said that was less to do with the president and more Indiana cutting taxes and attracting businesses.
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/02/elkhart-indiana-economy-recovery-obama-rvs

Nothing:

ELKHART, Ind.?This city once had the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Now, though, it?s booming. The once-shuttered factories of the recreational vehicle industry, which is concentrated here, are full of workers, their parking lots packed with employees stepping over snow banks to work long hours to fulfill consumer orders.

This city exemplifies the economic recovery the country has experienced since the Great Recession ended. Elkhart?s unemployment rate, which had reached a high of 22 percent in March of 2009, is now at 3.9 percent. Hiring signs dot the doors of the Wal-Mart, the McDonald?s, and the Long John Silver?s. The RV industry makes 65 percent of its vehicles in Elkhart, and the industry is producing a record number of vehicles, which is creating a lot of jobs in this frosty town in northern Indiana.
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Brainwashed...well you make the call

Though people largely admitted that the city?s economy has vastly improved since 2009, only Neufeldt believed Obama had anything to do with that. Instead, the majority of people said they were waiting for Republicans to take over to see any meaningful change. They told me that the city has been revived not because of Obama?s bailout of the auto industry, which helped some RV suppliers, or his stimulus bill, which poured money into Indiana and other states across the Midwest. The economy might have improved, they said, but it did so despite who was in office nationally, not because of him.
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Brandon Stanley owns a bar in Elkhart. He says he?s optimistic that the economy is improving now that Republicans have regained power, but emphasizes that there are still a host of economic problems that haven?t been solved in Elkhart. As for the shrinking unemployment rate in Elkhart, ?they changed how they report unemployment numbers,? he told me, so they?re not believable.
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Andi Ermes, 39, offered a number of reasons for disliking Obama. She said Obama didn?t attend the Army-Navy football game, even though other presidents had. Obama has actually attended more Army-Navy games than George H.W. Bush. She said that he had taken too many vacations. He has taken fewer vacation days than George W. Bush. She also said that he refused to wear a flag pin on his lapel. While it is true that Obama did not wear a flag on his lapel at points during the 2007 campaign, it was back on his suit by 2008. Ermes told me the news sources she consumes most are Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and a local conservative radio show hosted by Casey Hendrickson.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/its-not-the-economy-stupid/511634/
 
LOL 4% GDP growth...you really love that koolaid.  Ask Kansas how that tax cut worked out...how did those Bush tax cuts work out?

Seriously...context is always somehow lacking for conservatives.

Plenty of experts say "hold on." This recovery may be slow, but it's also lasted a long time -- far longer than usual -- and job growth has been good.

"We are in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history," notes Achuthan.

Since World War II, the American economy has typically grown for about five years and then had a contraction. This expansion is already over seven years old.

Furthermore, the average pace of job growth in this recovery has already topped what happened during the 2001 to 2007 expansion under President George W. Bush (the Bush recovery was the slowest in terms of jobs growth, Achuthan says).
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Then there's the fact that the U.S. had to climb out of the deepest hole since the Great Depression. While growth has been slow, it's been a lot better in the U.S. than in Europe and Japan.

Plus, the economy has dragged as the U.S. as Baby Boomers have begun to retire. There simply aren't as many people working as there once were. Growth overall has been slowing in America since the 1970s as the population ages and productivity stalled.
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http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/05/news/economy/us-recovery-slowest-since-wwii/index.html
 
morekaos said:
You have to believe in the magic....

The clearest part of Trump's economic plan is also the most delusional part


Three percent GDP growth. Three percent GDP growth. Three percent GDP growth.

Get it stamped on your brain. Get it tattooed somewhere. Have some T-shirts made, because this is team Trump's goal for the economy. In a time of extreme policy confusion, 3% GDP growth is one of the only firm targets we have to hang onto.

The problem is that in interview after interview, Donald Trump and his surrogates have demonstrated that they have no idea how to get there.

Take, for example, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' confirmation hearing. He told senators that a combination of tax reform, a more self-sufficient energy policy, and increasing exports would do the trick.

"Combine those and get a fraction of a percent of growth from each, and we'll see the numbers we're talking about," he said.

Chief White House Economic Adviser Gary Cohn has also talked about the magic path to 3% GDP growth, mostly saying that tax reform and deregulation would get us there. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the target was "very achievable" and spouted the same lines.

Unfortunately, that's not how GDP growth works.

"The problem for the Trumpians is that we've had eight years of recovery," Lee Branstetter, a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, told Business Insider. "Now unemployment is well below 5%, and there's just not a lot of slack in the US labor market. ... It's essentially mathematically impossible to get the growth they're talking about."

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-3-gdp-growth-plan-makes-no-sense-2017-2

Really?

Say Hello To 3% Growth

As the media have once again reported, the economy "surprisingly" grew at a 3% pace in the third quarter, despite the impact of three major hurricanes. Has the U.S. economy finally left its 2% growth rut?

While presidents aren't the sole determinants of economic growth, their policies do matter. As such, President Trump seems to be steering the economy onto a faster growth track than during the slow-growth Obama years.

GDP growth of 3.1% in the second quarter and 3% in the third quarter is the fastest since 2014's two-quarter spurt of 4.6% and 5.2%. But this year's third quarter was even better than it looked, since most economists had marked down their estimates to just above 1% or so due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the economy.

Those who keep expecting a major slowdown should look at what's really going on in the economy.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/say-hello-to-3-growth/

How Trump Got the Economy Booming in Less Than a Year

But it is not all due to just the promise of pro-growth tax reform. Contributing even more to restored growth is the reality of sweeping deregulation.



America today has the resources to lead the world as the top producer worldwide of oil, natural gas and coal. Removing America from the Paris Climate Accord, the start of the demise of Obama?s so-called ?Clean Power Plan,? and Trump?s ongoing dismantling of the anti-American energy regulation of Obama?s EPA has already liberated America?s energy producers to assume these world leading roles.

Any economy with the world?s number one oil producing industry, number one natural gas producing industry, and number one coal producing industry is going to be leading the world with booming economic growth. And not just in energy but in manufacturing too. Because manufacturing is an energy intensive activity.

http://observer.com/2017/10/how-donald-trump-got-the-economy-booming-in-less-than-a-year/

Winning!!!
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Yes, lets keep listening to those buffoons who believed that 3% GDP was "numerically impossible" ,  "Delusional"  The same clowns who brought you 1.9% GDP for 8 straight years.  Those guys sure earned my respect and trust.
 
You know something - what always " feels right  " isn't always what's right

Fox new viewers " feel " a lot of grudges and resentments and it is the network's job to present them with twisted facts to assuage their feelings

Its like when a recent PPP survey found that americans believe that immigrants comprise almost 40% of the population in this country, a number way way higher than the actual data. Nah .. but it feels right to the grandpa sitting on his couch in Tallahassee when he has been whipped up into rage by Hannity or Tucker.

It also "feels " like tax cuts for giant corporations will lead to better wages and job growth when actual historical data and analysis says the opposite. Companies are lining up large M&A deals to spend all that cash coming from overseas. No way,  doesn't " feel " right .  Yes more mergers means more layoffs for the average white collar worker. Hey, but we cant let facts get in the way, can we ?

The economic gap in this country is about to get much bigger and people in the middle class or the top 10% (as many of the people on this board are), would be better served directing their rage at those who are about to hand a giant  Christmas present to the top 0.05% and their heirs. 


 
morekaos said:
Yes, lets keep listening to those buffoons who believed that 3% GDP was "numerically impossible" ,  "Delusional"  The same clowns who brought you 1.9% GDP for 8 straight years.  Those guys sure earned my respect and trust.
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Why do you keep making stuff up? 

GDP growth under Obama:
2008:  -0.3
2009:  -2.8
2010:  2.5
2011:  1.6
2012:  2.2
2013:  1.7
2014:  2.4
2015:  2.6
2016:  1.6

We are projected for growth rate of around 2.5% for 2017.

No one said 3% growth was impossible in quarters...it's impossible for a 8-10 year period of time which is what is being projected and relied upon by Trumpsters. 

That last article you cited to is just laughable. 

Most reasonable projections has growth around 2%...which normal.

U.S. GDP growth will rise to 2.5 percent in 2018. It's the same as the in 2017, but better than the 2.1 percent growth in 2016. The increase in gross domestic product will drop to 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 13, 2017.  This forecast begins to take into account the impact of Trump's policies.

The unemployment rate will drop to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, but rise to 4.0 percent in 2020. That's better than the 4.1 percent rate in 2017, and the 4.7 percent rate in 2016. It's also better than the Fed's 6.7 percent target.
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https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
 
If Trump thinks he can get more than 3% economic growth, he's dreaming

http://beta.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-3percent-20170519-story.html

Economists don?t buy Trump?s 3 percent GDP growth target

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/economists-dont-buy-trumps-3-percent-gdp-growth-target.html

Forget 4% growth: 3% would be a major feat for Trump after record drought

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-4-growth-3-would-be-a-major-feat-for-trump-after-record-drought-2017-01-22

Trump promises 4% growth. Economists say no way.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/11/news/economy/trump-four-percent-growth-economists/index.html

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and...Wrong!!!
 
ANNUAL GDP GROWTH!!!!!  WHAT IS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?  OBAMA HAD QUARTERLY GDP GROWTH OF 4.6 AND 5.2% IN Q3 AND Q4 OF 2014!

We are projected to have about a 2.5% GDP growth in 2017. 

Do you understand what a huge difference 2.5% is from 3% and how vastly different 3% is from 4% GDP growth? 

Seriously.
 
With a 4rth quarter likely to come in over 4% and 2 major hurricanes that should have destroyed 3rd quarter GDP (had that not happend it would have been even higher)  We will notch over 3% for the year.  A feat thought just a few months ago, to be "impossible"
 
morekaos said:
With a 4rth quarter likely to come in over 4% and 2 major hurricanes that should have destroyed 3rd quarter GDP (had that not happend it would have been even higher)  We will notch over 3% for the year.  A feat thought just a few months ago, to be "impossible"
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That's not how it works!

Harvey and Irma struck parts of Texas and Florida in late August and early September. Hurricane Maria, which destroyed infrastructure in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, had no impact on third-quarter GDP growth as the islands are not included in the United State's national accounts.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy growing at a 2.5 percent pace in the third quarter. Excluding inventory investment, the economy grew at a 2.3 percent rate, slowing from the second quarter's 2.9 percent pace.

With post-hurricane labor market, retail sales and industrial production data already showing an acceleration in underlying economic activity, Friday's report will probably have no impact on monetary policy in the near term.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/con...t-holiday-shopping-could-turn-it-around-.html

Most experts are projecting a 2.4/2.5 4th quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/con...t-holiday-shopping-could-turn-it-around-.html
 
Most experts have been wrong.

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Are Expected to Slow U.S. Growth

Economic growth last quarter was the quickest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period. Economists estimate that Harvey and Irma, which struck Texas and Florida, could cut as much as six-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in the third quarter.

Harvey was blamed for much of the decline in retail sales, industrial production, homebuilding and home sales in August. Further weakness is anticipated in September because of Irma.

http://fortune.com/2017/09/28/hurricanes-harvey-irma-us-gdp-growth/
 
Irvinecommuter - Explain what you mean by "that's not how it works".  Harvey and Irma did massive damage in two of the largest economies in the US.  Those two disasters were a net negative for GDP in 3Q, but would be net positive in 4Q, assuming the rebuilding effort is a contributor.  You also had the horrible wildfires in wine country which would further suppress GDP in 3Q.
 
Liar Loan said:
Irvinecommuter - Explain what you mean by "that's not how it works".  Harvey and Irma did massive damage in two of the largest economies in the US.  Those two disasters were a net negative for GDP in 3Q, but would be net positive in 4Q, assuming the rebuilding effort is a contributor.  You also had the horrible wildfires in wine country which would further suppress GDP in 3Q.
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Because rebuilding from a national disaster actually dramatically increases GDP.  You do lose some in the loss of productivity resulting from the national disaster but you have a lot of extra unexpected activity/growth resulting from the cleanup and rebuilding.  The quote that I put in shows that the rebuilding for the hurricanes Texas/Florida started pretty quickly after the disaster (and PR not counted).  Most of the effects are local.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/dev...y-boost-us-gdp-and-push-inflation-higher.html

But all those things also happened during Obama years (Irene in 2011, Sandy in 2012).  There are natural disasters and issues every year.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-harveys-impact-and-how-it-compares-to-other-storms/

But in reality, most of the growth has to do with Fed policy.  Trump has not done much to have a direct impact on the economy.
 
Fantastic read
https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...s-what-conservatives-think-say-and-do/548738/

Some excerpts below ...

"The conservative intellectual world is whipsawed between distaste for President Trump and fear of its own audience. The conservative base has become ever more committed to Trump?and ever less tolerant of any deviation. Those conservative talkers most susceptible to market pressure?radio and TV hosts?have made the most-spectacular conversions and submissions: Mark Levin, Tucker Carlson. With reason. The same day that Cooke launched himself into Jennifer Rubin, another contributor to the National Review special issue, Erick W. Erickson, announced that he had lost his Fox News contract. Erickson had precisely followed Cooke?s advice, conscientiously seeking opportunities to praise Trump where he could. That halfway support did not suffice for his producers"

"The center-left and the far right are the principal poles of the media landscape. The center of gravity of the overall landscape is the center-left. Partisan media sources on the left are integrated into this landscape and are of lesser importance than the major media outlets of the center-left. The center of attention and influence for conservative media is on the far right. The center-right is of minor importance and is the least represented portion of the media spectrum."

"As the scandals about Trump worsen, pressures on right-of-center people to conform will only tighten.  It?s a paradox, but it?s true: Trump gains a huge measure of support within the conservative world precisely because of how guilty he looks. Trump supporters may insist, ?There?s no there, there.? They sense?as we all sense?that in fact so many ?there?s lurk beneath Trump?s White House that even the most maladroit digger is liable to find something terrible: If not collusion with Russia, then perhaps tax evasion. If not tax evasion, then maybe bank fraud. If not bank fraud, then sexual assault. Or all of them. Luminaries of the conservative academic world?including a fellow at the august Hoover Institution?are now repeating Sean Hannity?style character assassination of James Comey and Special Counsel Robert Mueller"

?Conservatism in this country long predated Trump; for now, it is tied up with Trump; soon, it will have survived Trump -- This is something many conservatives tell themselves, but it?s not even slightly true. Trump is changing conservatism into something different. We can all observe that. Will it snap back afterward?"

"This is simply not true. Ideas are not artifacts, especially the kind of collective ideas we know as ideologies. Conservatives in 1964 opposed civil-rights laws. Conservatives in 1974 opposed tax cuts unless paid for by spending cuts. Conservatives in 1984 opposed same-sex marriage. Conservatives in 1994 opposed trade protectionism. Conservatives in 2004 opposed people who equated the FBI and Soviet Union?s KGB. All those statements of conservative ideology have gone by the boards, and one could easily write a similar list of amended views for liberals."

"Conservatism is what conservatives think, say, and do. As conservatives change?as much through the harsh fact of death and birth as by the fluctuations of opinion?so does what it means to be a conservative. The Trump presidency is a huge political fact. Donald Trump may not be the leader of American conservatism, but he is its most spectacular and vulnerable asset. The project of defending him against his coming political travails?or at least of assailing those who doubt and oppose him?is already changing what it means to be a conservative. The word conservative will of course continue in use. But its meaning is being rewritten each day by the actions of those who lay claim to the word. It is their commitment to Trump that etches Trumpism into them. And while Trump may indeed pass, that self-etching will not soon be effaced."

 
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