President Trump

[morekaos]

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ?more than 99% chance? of winning election over Donald Trump

A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.

Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Changing demographics and exposure to the world will move the ball down but for now, the old dying generation gets its gasp.

The swing voters that elected Trump are the same swing voters that elected Obama.  To say they are going to suddenly disappear is a bold prediction indeed.

That's actually not true at all.  Obama got 69 million votes in 2008 and 65 million in 2012...Trump got 62 million. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ?more than 99% chance? of winning election over Donald Trump

A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.

Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

For a numbers guy, you are intentionally ignorant of numbers.   

BTW:  The polls on a national level was right on.  HRC won by about 2%...polls had her winning by about 2-3%

Economy is doing pretty well now and Trump is at 35%.  I am sure what happened in Alabama is totally unimportant.

 

[Liar Loan]

Changing demographics and exposure to the world will move the ball down but for now, the old dying generation gets its gasp.

The swing voters that elected Trump are the same swing voters that elected Obama.  To say they are going to suddenly disappear is a bold prediction indeed.

That's actually not true at all.  Obama got 69 million votes in 2008 and 65 million in 2012...Trump got 62 million.

Thanks for the recap, but I'm talking about swing voters here.

Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._many_obama_2012_trump_2016_voters_were_there

Different sources offer varying estimates of Obama 2012-Trump 2016 voters. The ANES found that about 13% of all Trump voters cast a ballot for Obama in 2012. Meanwhile, the CCES found a slightly smaller figure of around 11%. Lastly, the UVA Center for Politics poll found that about 15% of Trump voters claimed to have backed Obama four years earlier. Using these percentages (not rounded) and Trump?s overall 2016 vote total, estimates of the raw number of such Obama-Trump voters range from about 6.7 million to 9.2 million.

These are the people that determine presidential elections.  About 85%+ of the electorate has no real effect on the outcome.

 

[morekaos]

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ?more than 99% chance? of winning election over Donald Trump

A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.

Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

For a numbers guy, you are intentionally ignorant of numbers.   

BTW:  The polls on a national level was right on.  HRC won by about 2%...polls had her winning by about 2-3%

Economy is doing pretty well now and Trump is at 35%.  I am sure what happened in Alabama is totally unimportant.

Because the "numbers" that were widely accepted were WRONG.  Trumps approval numbers also were negative when he won.  They didn't matter then and they won't matter next year.


Matthew Dowd: Clinton Has 95% Chance To Win, Will Win By 5 Million Votes

MATTHEW DOWD, ABC: I think she's got about a 95 chance to win this election, and I think she's going to have a higher margin than Barack Obama did in 2012. Higher margin. She's going to win by more than 5 million votes. She's going to win a higher percentage. And itnerestingly she's going to have amore diverse coalition than Barack Obama even did when you take the final vote into consideration. Every piece of data points in that direction.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/06/matthew_dowd_clinton_has_95_chance_will_get_higher_margin_than_obama.html

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ?more than 99% chance? of winning election over Donald Trump

A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.

Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

For a numbers guy, you are intentionally ignorant of numbers.   

BTW:  The polls on a national level was right on.  HRC won by about 2%...polls had her winning by about 2-3%

Economy is doing pretty well now and Trump is at 35%.  I am sure what happened in Alabama is totally unimportant.

Because the "numbers" that were widely accepted were WRONG.  Trumps approval numbers also were negative when he won.  They didn't matter then and they won't matter next year.


Matthew Dowd: Clinton Has 95% Chance To Win, Will Win By 5 Million Votes

MATTHEW DOWD, ABC: I think she's got about a 95 chance to win this election, and I think she's going to have a higher margin than Barack Obama did in 2012. Higher margin. She's going to win by more than 5 million votes. She's going to win a higher percentage. And itnerestingly she's going to have amore diverse coalition than Barack Obama even did when you take the final vote into consideration. Every piece of data points in that direction.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/06/matthew_dowd_clinton_has_95_chance_will_get_higher_margin_than_obama.html

It's not wrong...she won by about 2% (polls had her up by 2-3%) and close to 4 million votes.  Margin of error are real things and even with that..the polls were pretty spot on.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ls_that_missed_it_was_the_pundits_132333.html

 

[fortune11]

Changing demographics and exposure to the world will move the ball down but for now, the old dying generation gets its gasp.

The swing voters that elected Trump are the same swing voters that elected Obama.  To say they are going to suddenly disappear is a bold prediction indeed.

That's actually not true at all.  Obama got 69 million votes in 2008 and 65 million in 2012...Trump got 62 million.

Virginia was the best indicator here. White sub urban post college voters moving away from GOP - a pattern you will see repeat again and again. 

In polite company, Trump is really toxic.  Many of these supporters if they have real jobs in the white collar world know this well. And while voting is deeply personal, polls in Virginia were actually under predicted Northam's giant margin of victory

That leaves us with Trump's core demographic - old age grumpy white people conditioned by years and years of watching caustic programming coming from fox, primarily non college and evangelicals.  Those matter in the south and Florida but not so much in midwest where pendulum will easily swing back next year , if Virginia's pattern is any guide.

Ultimately, there is no end to this, my sympathy that you have been able to keep it up w this insanity for so long. Numbers and facts don't matter here, just screaming at the top of your lungs (or using the boldest red font available).

 

[morekaos]

Popular vote only mattered if he was running for governor of California. This stupid state made up the whole margin.  Fortunately, winning this state was not part of Trumps electoral strategy and in the end proved irrelevant. (as I pointed out numerous times.)

It's Official: Clinton's Popular Vote Win Came Entirely From California

Democrats who are having trouble getting out of the first stage of grief ? denial ? aren't being helped by the fact that, now that all the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote has topped 2.8 million, giving her a 48% share of the vote compared with Trumps 46%.

To those unschooled in how the United States selects presidents, this seems totally unfair. But look more closely at the numbers and you see that Clinton's advantage all but disappears.

As we noted in this space earlier, while Clinton's overall margin looks large and impressive, it is due to Clinton's huge margin of victory in one state ? California ? where she got a whopping 4.3 million more votes than Trump.

California is the only state, in fact, where Clinton's margin of victory was bigger than President Obama's in 2012 ? 61.5% vs. Obama's 60%.

But California is the exception that proves the true genius of the Electoral College ? which was designed to prevent regional candidates from dominating national elections.

If you take California out of the popular vote equation, then Trump wins the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes. And if California voted like every other Democratic state ? where Clinton averaged 53.5% wins ? Clinton and Trump end up in a virtual popular vote tie. (This was not the case in 2012. Obama beat Romney by 2 million votes that year, not counting California.)

Meanwhile, if you look at every other measure, Trump was the clear and decisive winner in this election.

https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/its-official-clintons-popular-vote-win-came-entirely-from-california/

 

[notTHEoc]

This sounds like a money manager who says ?my performance was awesome. Just forget my largest position which was 15% of the portfolio and down 40%. The rest of the portfolio was up 2% so we did great. Don?t worry about the overall statement showing a loss.?

 

[morekaos]

Not at all. Every republican ignores this state. They rightfully commit  resources elsewhere, where it does some good. That?s not done by accident. It?s a smart, winning strategy. Our state makes itself electorally uncompetative and thus irrelevant.


In recent years, California has been turning into what amounts to a one-party state. Between 2008 and 2016, the number of Californian's who registered as Democrats climbed by 1.1 million, while the number of registered Republicans dropped by almost 400,000.

What's more, many Republicans in the state had nobody to vote for in November.

There were two Democrats ? and zero Republicans ? running to replace Sen. Barbara Boxer. There were no Republicans on the ballot for House seats in nine of California's congressional districts.

At the state level, six districts had no Republicans running for the state senate, and 16 districts had no Republicans running for state assembly seats.

Plus, since Republicans knew Clinton was going to win the state ? and its entire 55 electoral votes ? casting a ballot for Trump was virtually meaningless, since no matter what her margin of victory, Clinton was getting all 55 votes.

 

[Liar Loan]

Those pathetic grumpy old whites!  Why can't you just die already?  OMG!  Look what they're predicting now!!

N.Y. Fed raises U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth view to near 4 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday raised its estimate of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 closer to 4 percent, based on revisions of prior data that suggested stronger economic activities.

The regional central bank?s ?Nowcast? model calculated the economy was expanding at an annualized pace of 3.98 percent in the fourth quarter, quicker than the 3.92 percent rate calculated a week ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wth-view-to-near-4-percent-idUSKBN1E9292?il=0

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Popular vote only mattered if he was running for governor of California. This stupid state made up the whole margin.  Fortunately, winning this state was not part of Trumps electoral strategy and in the end proved irrelevant. (as I pointed out numerous times.)

It's Official: Clinton's Popular Vote Win Came Entirely From California

Democrats who are having trouble getting out of the first stage of grief ? denial ? aren't being helped by the fact that, now that all the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote has topped 2.8 million, giving her a 48% share of the vote compared with Trumps 46%.

To those unschooled in how the United States selects presidents, this seems totally unfair. But look more closely at the numbers and you see that Clinton's advantage all but disappears.

As we noted in this space earlier, while Clinton's overall margin looks large and impressive, it is due to Clinton's huge margin of victory in one state ? California ? where she got a whopping 4.3 million more votes than Trump.

California is the only state, in fact, where Clinton's margin of victory was bigger than President Obama's in 2012 ? 61.5% vs. Obama's 60%.

But California is the exception that proves the true genius of the Electoral College ? which was designed to prevent regional candidates from dominating national elections.

If you take California out of the popular vote equation, then Trump wins the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes. And if California voted like every other Democratic state ? where Clinton averaged 53.5% wins ? Clinton and Trump end up in a virtual popular vote tie. (This was not the case in 2012. Obama beat Romney by 2 million votes that year, not counting California.)

Meanwhile, if you look at every other measure, Trump was the clear and decisive winner in this election.

https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/its-official-clintons-popular-vote-win-came-entirely-from-california/

This could be the dumbest article I have read in awhile.  Let's excluded the the most populous state in the Union from the analysis! 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Those pathetic grumpy old whites!  Why can't you just die already?  OMG!  Look what they're predicting now!!

N.Y. Fed raises U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth view to near 4 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday raised its estimate of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 closer to 4 percent, based on revisions of prior data that suggested stronger economic activities.

The regional central bank?s ?Nowcast? model calculated the economy was expanding at an annualized pace of 3.98 percent in the fourth quarter, quicker than the 3.92 percent rate calculated a week ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wth-view-to-near-4-percent-idUSKBN1E9292?il=0

I'm sure Trump is why this is happening but sure.

 

[morekaos]

Those pathetic grumpy old whites!  Why can't you just die already?  OMG!  Look what they're predicting now!!

N.Y. Fed raises U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth view to near 4 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday raised its estimate of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 closer to 4 percent, based on revisions of prior data that suggested stronger economic activities.

The regional central bank?s ?Nowcast? model calculated the economy was expanding at an annualized pace of 3.98 percent in the fourth quarter, quicker than the 3.92 percent rate calculated a week ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wth-view-to-near-4-percent-idUSKBN1E9292?il=0

I'm sure Trump is why this is happening but sure.

For sure it wasn't Obama

 

[irvinehomeowner]

When the gop gets decimated in 2018 midterms , they will try and find some ?genius? argument - hey it was all about trumps plan to clear the swamp  or something , something 

I?ll say it right here and now...the GOP will NOT be decimated in 2018....they will retain control of both houses.

Quoting for 2018.

MoreKaos' predictions have been scarily correct (except for the mass exodus of businesses from California ).

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Those pathetic grumpy old whites!  Why can't you just die already?  OMG!  Look what they're predicting now!!

N.Y. Fed raises U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth view to near 4 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday raised its estimate of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 closer to 4 percent, based on revisions of prior data that suggested stronger economic activities.

The regional central bank?s ?Nowcast? model calculated the economy was expanding at an annualized pace of 3.98 percent in the fourth quarter, quicker than the 3.92 percent rate calculated a week ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wth-view-to-near-4-percent-idUSKBN1E9292?il=0

I'm sure Trump is why this is happening but sure.

For sure it wasn't Obama

No...of course not.  Why would he get any credit?  Why start now?

 

[morekaos]

I could argue that point IHM

 

[Liar Loan]

I think Obama does deserve some credit.  Without 8 years of stagnation, there would be no Trump.

Obama: Trump lacks ?magic wand? to grow economy

The president declined to invoke the real estate mogul?s full name, saying that he would let Trump ?do his advertising for him.?

But Obama criticized Trump?s claims that he could use his business acumen to spur economic growth and tackle other complex issues.

?He just says, ?I?m gonna negotiate a better deal.? Well how? How exactly are you going to negotiate that?? Obama said during the town hall portion of the event. ?What magic wand do you have? And usually the answer is, he doesn?t have an answer.?

But others scoffed at the notion that Elkhart had recovered, and criticized Obama for not doing enough to create new jobs.

?He?s come to Elkhart a few times, and it seems like he?s done nothing to try and make things better,? said Steven Good, a homeless man who has struggled to find housing and work in the area. ?He made lots of announcements but they were just words. Empty promises.?

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-president-obamas-town-hall-in-elkhart-indiana

 

[Liar Loan]

Nothing but a bunch of grumpy old white men there in Elkhart, Indiana.  Probably all brainwashed too.

I mean look at Steven Good, the homeless guy.  What does he have to complain about?  He should be thankful for his healthcare, and the stimulus package that provided shovel ready jobs to his community.

 

[morekaos]

Winning!!

House Passes Final Tax Bill; Senate
Votes Next on Republican Plan

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/us/politics/tax-bill-vote-republicans.html