Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[someguy]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

 

[OCtoSV]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

they haven't even started. Think ahead 2 years and what will the scenario look like? THe only way for the Fed to lower inflation is to force rents lower, which would entail massive surplus inventory perhaps from Homes 4 Rent corporate entities deciding the returns are no longer acceptable as they can't cheaply roll over the debt, to get out of the biz.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

they haven't even started. Think ahead 2 years and what will the scenario look like? THe only way for the Fed to lower inflation is to force rents lower, which would entail massive surplus inventory perhaps from Homes 4 Rent corporate entities deciding the returns are no longer acceptable as they can't cheaply roll over the debt, to get out of the biz.

WHO DO YOU THINK OWNS THE FED?

There is your answer.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

they haven't even started. Think ahead 2 years and what will the scenario look like? THe only way for the Fed to lower inflation is to force rents lower, which would entail massive surplus inventory perhaps from Homes 4 Rent corporate entities deciding the returns are no longer acceptable as they can't cheaply roll over the debt, to get out of the biz.

Because you get ripped off for everything in California, your views are skewed. Gas at the Tustin Legacy costco is 80 cents above the price it was the day putin started bombing ($4.99 today). There is no way that will stay up that high. Oil is now where it was in January. The price of gas here is a whopping 7 cents higher than it was on that same day ($3.56 today).

When oil drops, shipping costs and the price to make things with oil drops. Inflation is topped out, whether u believe it or not.

The price of food has been dropping here to multi year lows. I even posted about it so why is anyone surprised to see prices lower here, now? Inflation is topped out.

 

[OCtoSV]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

they haven't even started. Think ahead 2 years and what will the scenario look like? THe only way for the Fed to lower inflation is to force rents lower, which would entail massive surplus inventory perhaps from Homes 4 Rent corporate entities deciding the returns are no longer acceptable as they can't cheaply roll over the debt, to get out of the biz.

WHO DO YOU THINK OWNS THE FED?

There is your answer.

And? Higher rates are good for the largest banks that own the Fed. The Fed will be absorbing the losses on the MBS.

 

[OCtoSV]

JP and his friends have been jawboning about QT since October 2021.  They claimed they officially started on June 1st 2022. 

"Members of the Federal Open Market Committee in May officially agreed to cap the run-off at an initial pace of $30bn a month for Treasuries and $17.5bn for agency mortgage-backed securities, before ramping up over three months to a maximum pace of $60bn and $35bn, respectively. That translates to as much as $95bn per month."

Source:  https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f

Up to $95B per month starting in June 2022, right?  Riiiighht. 

Latest Fed balance sheet:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

It was $8.915B on 6/1/22

It was $8.879B on 8/10/22

That's an average of $16B per month so far.

This kind of QT isn't going to push mortgages to 10%.

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

when mortage rates go to 10% (QT hasn't even started) the timing of purchases from 2017-2022 is going to look much more important in the rear view. The $4M house at 2-3% mort rate will deflate massively all the way to 10%. We've seen this movie before in the early 90s. My parents Northwood house took 10 years to come back above water from their 89 purchase but the $ weren't that big, though knowing your big asset wasn't appreciating was no fun for them. I'm more concerned about the equity markets tanking given how expensive they still are in light of no earnings growth but I'd still rather put my wealth in the market than in RE right now which is why I decided against levering up when rates were at their bottom to get our unicorn house. I'm going to ride our inflation hedges of a 15 yr 1.99% mortgage and subsidized solar/batteries through this multi-year patch of inflation while sharpening the focus on companies with solid balance sheets.

Well, you're wrong about mortgage rates going to 10%. That's NOT going to happen. Just like oil price is NOT going to $300. Both are just your wishful thinking.

It's not wishful thinking, just using my brain. QE brought rates to 2%, and you don't think QT will have the opposite effect? What is the mortgage securitization market going to look like when the Fed is conducting open market sales of their $4T MBS portfolio? This has NEVER been tried before. It is much more intellectually reasonable to see rates hitting 10% than just staying flat becuase of the dilution of the MBS market, or should i say re-shaping as today the Fed IS the MBS market.

This recent Barron's article is a good primer:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-balance-sheet-quantitative-tightening-2022-51659731026

they haven't even started. Think ahead 2 years and what will the scenario look like? THe only way for the Fed to lower inflation is to force rents lower, which would entail massive surplus inventory perhaps from Homes 4 Rent corporate entities deciding the returns are no longer acceptable as they can't cheaply roll over the debt, to get out of the biz.

Because you get ripped off for everything in California, your views are skewed. Gas at the Tustin Legacy costco is 80 cents above the price it was the day putin started bombing ($4.99 today). There is no way that will stay up that high. Oil is now where it was in January. The price of gas here is a whopping 7 cents higher than it was on that same day ($3.56 today).

When oil drops, shipping costs and the price to make things with oil drops. Inflation is topped out, whether u believe it or not.

The price of food has been dropping here to multi year lows. I even posted about it so why is anyone surprised to see prices lower here, now? Inflation is topped out.

I sincerely hope you're not making investement decisions based on your personal inflation forecast because you will get taken to the cleaners. Oil/gas industry has a huge deficit on investment in drilling and refining and the investors want to be paid after subsidizing prices for all these years with the huge captial inflows into fracking. ESG will continue to create cogiitive dissonance further impeding the needed investment especially in nat gas pipelines. Why do you think Newson is asking for Diablo Canyon to stay on for 10 more years?

Major herd cullings going on right now given the feed shortages - future meat prices will be much higher though 43% increase in chicken & eggs is already staggering.

Equity valuations are still very rich given the specter of declining earnings. Seriously considering the structured notes my money mgr just got access to from JPM and GS - 20% downside buffer with gains capped at 14%/yr, 3 yr commitment.

But back to the rent component of inflation - how do you think the Fed is going to force that down?

 

[Liar Loan]

Let's see a first time home buyer could have saved:

-$100,000 in cost
-1.85% in mortgage rate ($15,000-20,000 per year)
-$1,000-2,000 in yearly property tax
-gotten a bigger house for the same or less money
-less psychological turmoil

All by waiting to buy at the right moment.

Holding for the long term does not suddenly transform a bad financial decision into a good one.  The optimal move is to time your purchase right and then hold for the long term.  Buying at the peak in Lake Elsinore required holding for 16 years to regain prior peak value.  How did holding for the long term make that a good purchase?  It didn't.  Which is why CalBears can't wait to get rid of it.

yeah but all of what you're saying is all hindsight. no one knows what will happen to the market in the future.

LL doesn't understand that you CAN'T time the market right. He keeps using hindsight data to back his view.

That's not true at all.  I've made the calls for everyone to see.

Wrong calls, yes. Like telling people not to buy since 2020.

You and R2D2 are the only people I've told not to buy, and I stand by those calls.  The renters you live next to and despise are actually getting the same benefits as you without the financial risk, and for a much lower monthly cost.

Since forever actually... LL has always said any time is a bad time to buy in Irvine... challenge him to quote a post where he said you should buy in 2010. He can't, just like he can't find a post where I said ALL homes in Irvine only dropped 15% during that previous bubble.

Just remember his first name when you see him post.

I didn't have an account here in 2010.

 

[TestingIrvine]

LL has 2,677 posts on TI and is a ?Certified Irvine Addict?.  Pretty creepy for a person who doesn?t live or do business here?kinda makes you wonder ?why do you care so much??

I?m at post #1,338 for TalkLaunaNigel.com taking about how terrible that city is so I guess I shouldn?t judge

 

[irvinebullhousing]

LL has 2,677 posts on TI and is a ?Certified Irvine Addict?.  Pretty creepy for a person who doesn?t live or do business here?kinda makes you wonder ?why do you care so much??

I?m at post #1,338 for TalkLaunaNigel.com taking about how terrible that city is so I guess I shouldn?t judge

After missing the run up, the next best thing is to trash the shit out of it. Hope and pray for crash and burn and pick up some decent investment. While, that could be one strategy, it is bad strategy. I don't think the intention is the same as IrvineRenter when he forewarn TI the 2008 crash. Larry was good sheppard that lead the sheep through the valley of darkness. This time, the sheeps are saved from the FED one in a life time low rate, that it would be foolish to give up on that asset. Therefore, I foresee, stagnate and slow growth and very little motivation to pickup and move. The sheeps will retire in place/den. So the best advice is to buy when you ready and be ready to live in it for a long time.

 

[CalBears96]

LL has 2,677 posts on TI and is a ?Certified Irvine Addict?.  Pretty creepy for a person who doesn?t live or do business here?kinda makes you wonder ?why do you care so much??

I?m at post #1,338 for TalkLaunaNigel.com taking about how terrible that city is so I guess I shouldn?t judge

After missing the run up, the next best thing is to trash the shit out of it. Hope and pray for crash and burn and pick up some decent investment. While, that could be one strategy, it is bad strategy. I don't think the intention is the same as IrvineRenter when he forewarn TI the 2008 crash. Larry was good sheppard that lead the sheep through the valley of darkness. This time, the sheeps are saved from the FED one in a life time low rate, that it would be foolish to give up on that asset. Therefore, I foresee, stagnate and slow growth and very little motivation to pickup and move. The sheeps will retire in place/den. So the best advice is to buy when you ready and be ready to live in it for a long time.

You're exactly right. We're those sheep that will retire in our Bluffs 2.  Not gonna sell the house when you got 30 years fixed at 2.875%. ;D

 

[TestingIrvine]

There is nowhere you can go if you have a 3-4% mortgage right now. Especially if you had a jumbo rate at sub 3% it is impossible to afford something similar.  It costs more to even downsize to a smaller place.

 

[zubs]

If you wanted to move, best to rent your current house to someone and rent elsewhere.

 

[bobbruin]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

 

[usctrojancpa]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

 

[sleepy5136]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

 

[TestingIrvine]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

It?s because people who purchase all cash refinanced once they closed with super low interest rates. It makes more sense having some debt than tie all that cash into an illiquid asset (unless you?re a FCB with no SSN or credit).

I?m a Irvine pumper, but saying interest rates don?t affect Irvine is not reasonable.

 

[CalBears96]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

It?s because people who purchase all cash refinanced once they closed with super low interest rates. It makes more sense having some debt than tie all that cash into an illiquid asset (unless you?re a FCB with no SSN or credit).

I?m a Irvine pumper, but saying interest rates don?t affect Irvine is not reasonable.

What interest rates are we talking about? The current rates? If so, how does it affect the buyers who refinanced at super low fixed rates a couple of years ago? I'm sure sleepy is talking about current FCBs, not the previous FCBs who would refinance.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

 

[usctrojancpa]

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

The average down payment for my Irvine buyers tends to range from 30-50% which is in line with that I have seen on my listings with other buyers.  Outside of Irvine you get lower down payment buyers, including VA and FHA buyers.

 

[CalBears96]

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.