Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

  • Down over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Down 20%

    Votes: 20 19.0%

  • Down 10%

    Votes: 40 38.1%

  • Down 5%

    Votes: 31 29.5%

  • Flat

    Votes: 37 35.2%

  • Up 5%

    Votes: 15 14.3%

  • Up 10%

    Votes: 5 4.8%

  • Up 20%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Up over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (please specify in post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
yeah. but who cares. If house prices go down 25% from the peak... that barely affects anyone. What % of homeowners actually bought between late 2021 and early 2022? 5% or less?
Click to expand...
Well, you might have to change your name to ThirtySomethingWNegativeEquity for one thing.

Losing 25% of equity affects just about everybody that either owns or wants to own, so maybe 60% of the nation's population? Then you factor in the economic fallout, job losses and loss of income, and it will affect everybody else to some extent. Kind of like COVID or Ukraine, it will be a national and international event with some pretty negative consequences.
 
Liar Loan said:
Well, you might have to change your name to ThirtySomethingWNegativeEquity for one thing.

Losing 25% of equity affects just about everybody that either owns or wants to own, so maybe 60% of the nation's population? Then you factor in the economic fallout, job losses and loss of income, and it will affect everybody else to some extent. Kind of like COVID or Ukraine, it will be a national and international event with some pretty negative consequences.
Click to expand...
Well... some people don't care about Covid or Ukraine... so there is that.

And if you don't sell until the next uptick... same difference.
 
Liar Loan said:
Well, you might have to change your name to ThirtySomethingWNegativeEquity for one thing.

Losing 25% of equity affects just about everybody that either owns or wants to own, so maybe 60% of the nation's population? Then you factor in the economic fallout, job losses and loss of income, and it will affect everybody else to some extent. Kind of like COVID or Ukraine, it will be a national and international event with some pretty negative consequences.
Click to expand...

What the fuck are you talking about lol. 25% downturn in prices would be a *good* thing for people who want to own. Second, at peak I was up ~ 60% from when I bought. At this point I have over a mill in equity. So who gives a shit if I 'lose' another 10%. It's paper money. It's like saying the APPL I bought is 'down' 50k (from some arbitrary point). I'm still way up from when I bought it.

so again...who cares. It's not that big of a deal if we are down 25% from peak unless you bought between late 2021 and mid 2022 AND you aren't planning on trading up, or were overleveraged.

Like look at CalBears, he wants to trade up to a bigger house soon. If 200k of his equity gets wiped out but the house he wants to buy comes down 300k...is he really down?
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
What the fuck are you talking about lol. 25% downturn in prices would be a *good* thing for people who want to own. Second, at peak I was up ~ 60% from when I bought. At this point I have over a mill in equity. So who gives a shit if I 'lose' another 10%. It's paper money. It's like saying the APPL I bought is 'down' 50k (from some arbitrary point). I'm still way up from when I bought it.

so again...who cares. It's not that big of a deal if we are down 25% from peak unless you bought between late 2021 and mid 2022 AND you aren't planning on trading up, or were overleveraged.

Like look at CalBears, he wants to trade up to a bigger house soon. If 200k of his equity gets wiped out but the house he wants to buy comes down 300k...is he really down?
Click to expand...
I bought in Dec 2021, but it went up almost 20% at peak in April/May. So if we're down 20% from peak, I'm still just break even, but I get to buy the bigger house cheaper. Even if my equity is down when I buy the bigger house, I don't care either. I could just rent out the current house until it recovers and then sell it. Huge downturn will be good for me.

LL doesn't understand that equity doesn't mean shit when you own a house for the long run.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
What the fuck are you talking about lol. 25% downturn in prices would be a *good* thing for people who want to own. Second, at peak I was up ~ 60% from when I bought. At this point I have over a mill in equity. So who gives a shit if I 'lose' another 10%. It's paper money. It's like saying the APPL I bought is 'down' 50k (from some arbitrary point). I'm still way up from when I bought it.

so again...who cares. It's not that big of a deal if we are down 25% from peak unless you bought between late 2021 and mid 2022 AND you aren't planning on trading up, or were overleveraged.

Like look at CalBears, he wants to trade up to a bigger house soon. If 200k of his equity gets wiped out but the house he wants to buy comes down 300k...is he really down?
Click to expand...

I love the doublespeak here. People who want to own can only reap the benefit from a 25% price decline if current sellers take a hit. It's a zero sum game.

Taking a $200k loss on the way to trading up to a bigger house makes no sense at all. CB could have avoided buying at the peak of the market (he was warned) and still reaped the same $300k benefit.

Of course, the other flaw in your thinking is that Irvine new homes will be marked down by the same percentage as resale homes. Many of the posters here don't believe that will happen, so it will be a $200k loss on the way to what may be a home that cost just as much as it did prior to the downturn.

CalBears96 said:
I bought in Dec 2021, but it went up almost 20% at peak in April/May. So if we're down 20% from peak, I'm still just break even, but I get to buy the bigger house cheaper. Even if my equity is down when I buy the bigger house, I don't care either. I could just rent out the current house until it recovers and then sell it. Huge downturn will be good for me.

LL doesn't understand that equity doesn't mean shit when you own a house for the long run.
Click to expand...

If you rent out the current house, you're not break even, but losing money on a monthly basis (even with the assumption that you'll never have maintenance or HOA increases). The renter neighbors you despise actually took the course of action that you should have taken.

The entire premise of why it made sense for you to purchase was because your wife wanted a new home and it was a forever home. That's now out the window and proves that treating a primary as a financial investment while evaluating whether it makes sense to buy is still the right approach.

Also, your home is not worth what the builder is selling it for. You live in a used house now, and much like driving a new car off the lot, you lose value immediately.
 
Liar Loan said:
I love the doublespeak here. People who want to own can only reap the benefit from a 25% price decline if current sellers take a hit. It's a zero sum game.
Click to expand...
uh, wasn't it you who conflated both buyers and sellers originally? I was just pointint it out.

Also, what's your deal? Are you one of those nutjobs who sold their house and makes their family live in a rental while they await the 'crash', but now you're annoyed it didn't happen fast enough?

The thing is, most of us have said, we don't care about home prices going down 15% *more* than they already have. We all already explained how most people won't care. All of us here are agreeing prices are going to come down more, and not just a small amount. Why does that bother you?
 
Selling a house and renting makes one a nutjob? Somebody alert bones!

Personally, I think buying at the peak of the market and then lashing out at others makes one a nutjob -- CareBears, R2D2, TestyIrvine and some others fit this description. I tried to warn them, and they've given me nothing but venom ever since (not that I mind!) But one thing it does show is that they DO care about home prices going down an additional 15%.

BTW, why are you using the pronoun "we" when speaking? Are you also a nutjob? Do you speak for others on this board? Are you non-binary?
 
Liar Loan said:
Selling a house and renting makes one a nutjob? Somebody alert bones!

Personally, I think buying at the peak of the market and then lashing out at others makes one a nutjob -- CareBears, R2D2, TestyIrvine and some others fit this description. I tried to warn them, and they've given me nothing but venom ever since (not that I mind!) But one thing it does show is that they DO care about home prices going down an additional 15%.

BTW, why are you using the pronoun "we" when speaking? Are you also a nutjob? Do you speak for others on this board? Are you non-binary?
Click to expand...

Who cares about Irvine??? I have 1,300 posts on TalkMissionViejo.com trashing their poor neighborhoods!!!
 
Liar Loan said:
I love the doublespeak here. People who want to own can only reap the benefit from a 25% price decline if current sellers take a hit. It's a zero sum game.

Taking a $200k loss on the way to trading up to a bigger house makes no sense at all. CB could have avoided buying at the peak of the market (he was warned) and still reaped the same $300k benefit.

Of course, the other flaw in your thinking is that Irvine new homes will be marked down by the same percentage as resale homes. Many of the posters here don't believe that will happen, so it will be a $200k loss on the way to what may be a home that cost just as much as it did prior to the downturn.



If you rent out the current house, you're not break even, but losing money on a monthly basis (even with the assumption that you'll never have maintenance or HOA increases). The renter neighbors you despise actually took the course of action that you should have taken.

The entire premise of why it made sense for you to purchase was because your wife wanted a new home and it was a forever home. That's now out the window and proves that treating a primary as a financial investment while evaluating whether it makes sense to buy is still the right approach.

Also, your home is not worth what the builder is selling it for. You live in a used house now, and much like driving a new car off the lot, you lose value immediately.
Click to expand...

You may treat a primary residence as an investment but the vast majority of people view a primary residence as a commodity that has an intangible value to them (their own home so they can do what they want to it, no fear of the landlord moving back in or wanting to sell it, can create stability, a place to raise a family, etc). Trying to time the real estate market is like trying to time the stock market, very difficult to do. Then there are people like me who look for a very specific that rarely comes onto the market which makes timing the market almost impossible.
 
usctrojancpa said:
You may treat a primary residence as an investment but the vast majority of people view a primary residence as a commodity that has an intangible value to them (their own home so they can do what they want to it, no fear of the landlord moving back in or wanting to sell it, can create stability, a place to raise a family, etc). Trying to time the real estate market is like trying to time the stock market, very difficult to do. Then there are people like me who look for a very specific that rarely comes onto the market which makes timing the market almost impossible.
Click to expand...

You are wrong USC and LiarLoan is correct!
Your primary home value is calculated via Mark-to-Market accounting!

Your home is NOT a gain/loss when you sell but values should be based on CURRENT FMV rates!!!

Hence all you suckers who bought in Irvine with sub 3% rates are bleeding money (on paper)!!!!!!

Now time to make trash the residents on TalkFulleton.com with my 1,553rd post because I have too much time on my hands!!!
 
Last edited:
TestingIrvine said:
You are wrong USC and LiarLoan is correct!
Your primary home value is calculated via Mark-to-Market accounting!

Your home is NOT a gain/loss when you sell but values should be based on CURRENT FMV rates!!!

Hence all you suckers who bought in Irvine with sub 3% rates are bleeding money (on paper)!!!!!!

Now time to make trash the residents on TalkFulleton.com with my 1,553rd post because I have too much time on my hands!!!
Click to expand...

LL looks at primary residences more like an investment properties and a financial asset hence why his focus is more on timing the market and he's probably not alone but that approach is definitely in the minority. There's no right or wrong, different types of buyers and sellers are what make the market. The boarder a buyer's search parameters the more they can try to time the market as they are more open to different types of homes in different locations. However, most buyers don't have a broad search parameter hence why it's more difficult for them to time the market besides the fact that life happens and needs change. Yes the market is slowing but you still have transactions happening and those people are buying for their own personal reasons. I personally couldn't care what my home is worth today as I'm enjoying living there and makes me very happy and I have no intent on selling anytime soon.
 
usctrojancpa said:
LL looks at primary residences more like an investment properties and a financial asset hence why his focus is more on timing the market and he's probably not alone but that approach is definitely in the minority. There's no right or wrong, different types of buyers and sellers are what make the market. The boarder a buyer's search parameters the more they can try to time the market as they are more open to different types of homes in different locations. However, most buyers don't have a broad search parameter hence why it's more difficult for them to time the market besides the fact that life happens and needs change. Yes the market is slowing but you still have transactions happening and those people are buying for their own personal reasons. I personally couldn't care what my home is worth today as I'm enjoying living there and makes me very happy and I have no intent on selling anytime soon.
Click to expand...

MARTIN!
LL has converted me! He is CORRECT!!!!
We all have massive losses and we are idiots!

I’m not sure how the math works but apparently my $500K realized gains from 2021 was a LOSS!!!! It would only be gain in Lake Forest apparently!

If I only listened to Liar Loan. What will I do with all of the losses I have incurred from my new home purchased in 2021 but cannot quantify!

Martin you are a CPA, how can I quantify these theoretical “losses” on my 2022 taxes without selling my home so I will have negative AGI?!?!

I am so devastated…
 
Liar Loan said:
Selling a house and renting makes one a nutjob? Somebody alert bones!

Personally, I think buying at the peak of the market and then lashing out at others makes one a nutjob -- CareBears, R2D2, TestyIrvine and some others fit this description. I tried to warn them, and they've given me nothing but venom ever since (not that I mind!) But one thing it does show is that they DO care about home prices going down an additional 15%.

BTW, why are you using the pronoun "we" when speaking? Are you also a nutjob? Do you speak for others on this board? Are you non-binary?
Click to expand...
Yeah I speak for the all the non nutjobs here. It sounds like you are saying you are trying to time the market by having sold and are renting now?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top