Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[Danimal]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

Yes, location location location. I bought that home 14 years ago after the 2008 financial crisis. It went down another 5% but i didnt care. I was in it for a long haul.  It tripled the price since then. Only bad thing is that Uncle Sam will want a piece of that pie after $500k tax free.

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

 

[sleepy5136]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

nope, it's because of FCB and their standards. Copy and paste floor plans across the city, high density but don't care bc it's denser where they are from, don't care about small lots because generally asians hate the sun, and looking for max indoor sqft. TIC client base is FCB, not Americans.

 

[CalBears96]

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

You be spitting truth.

 

[potsticker]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

Yes, location location location. I bought that home 14 years ago after the 2008 financial crisis. It went down another 5% but i didnt care. I was in it for a long haul.  It tripled the price since then. Only bad thing is that Uncle Sam will want a piece of that pie after $500k tax free.

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

This is the key. I've been trying to tell anyone searching for a home that if they find something that fits what they want and they plan to live in it for a while, now is actually a good time to buy. First, the market is stagnating - you have less competition. Second, inventory is still relatively tight and it's hard to find a home that checks all (or most) of your boxes. And third, even though interest rates are ticking up, there's a good chance they'll fall again over the next 12-18 months.

The problem is, everyone I talk to thinks they're an economic expert and believe they can time the market. Unless you're an all-cash buyer - good luck w/ timing the market.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

well said. we think alike.

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

nope, it's because of FCB and their standards. Copy and paste floor plans across the city, high density but don't care bc it's denser where they are from, don't care about small lots because generally asians hate the sun, and looking for max indoor sqft. TIC client base is FCB, not Americans.

 

[Liar Loan]

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

You be spitting truth.

It's the partial truth.  Danimal also benefitted immensely from good market timing by buying near the bottom and selling near the top.  If he had instead bought at the 2007 peak, it would have been many brutal years of "short term loss".  You know this because you've been through it yourself.

 

[Liar Loan]

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

The problem is, everyone I talk to thinks they're an economic expert and believe they can time the market. Unless you're an all-cash buyer - good luck w/ timing the market.

I am an economic expert and I bought in early 2009 and late 2020 so....  ;D

 

[TestingIrvine]

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.  Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn?t reflect today. You?re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is ?good timing?.

 

[Liar Loan]

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.  Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn?t reflect today.  You?re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is ?good timing? LOLLLL.  You?re just an old, bitter Boomer stuck in the past.

Poor guy spent a lot of time editing his insults.  He came back over five hours later to remove the weakest ones.

Thanks to TestingIrvine, I'm living rent free now.

 

[TestingIrvine]

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.  Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn?t reflect today.  You?re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is ?good timing? LOLLLL.  You?re just an old, bitter Boomer stuck in the past.

Poor guy spent a lot of time editing his insults.  He came back over five hours later to remove the weakest ones.

Thanks to TestingIrvine, I'm living rent free now.

Im trying to be nicer on here.

I think Irvine lives rent free in your mind
- considering you don?t live in Irvine
- you are a prolific poster on Talk Irvine

Edit:
I will now go to TalkRanchoSantaMargarita.com and bash a random city I have no affiliation with LOLOOLLLLLLLL

 

[Davidlee199]

Irvine Real Estate prices won?t drop due to its location? Lol
The real estate market in the Bay Area is down 10-15% from the peak so far.  Considering Average household income is $300k-$400k in the Bay Area vs $200k here in OC?
China Economy is in big problem due to its real estate market is crashed.  Don?t expect more money coming China to keep the Irvine market stays strong. 

 

[OCtoSV]

Irvine Real Estate prices won?t drop due to its location? Lol
The real estate market in the Bay Area is down 10-15% from the peak so far.  Considering Average household income is $300k-$400k in the Bay Area vs $200k here in OC?
China Economy is in big problem due to its real estate market is crashed.  Don?t expect more money coming China to keep the Irvine market stays strong.

I've always suspected Irvine was an extension of the China housing bubble - now we'll see whether that was the case

 

[TestingIrvine]

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/08/05/what-recession-us-employers-add-528000-jobs-in-july/

There will be no crash this year, it?ll be a soft landing. Flat 2022.

10% lower prices versus peak is nothing when prices went parabolic 9/2021-3/2022

 

[Liar Loan]

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/08/05/what-recession-us-employers-add-528000-jobs-in-july/

There will be no crash this year, it?ll be a soft landing. Flat 2022.

10% lower prices versus peak is nothing when prices went parabolic 9/2021-3/2022

Parabolas are a key feature of financial bubbles.  It's very rare to see something stay "flat" after a parabolic rise.

 

[linus]

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

 

[OCtoSV]

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

 

[usctrojancpa]

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.

 

[CalBears96]

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.

Exactly. Just because some fools list their houses ridiculously high and then have to make 6 figure price reduction doesn't mean dropping like a rock.

Prime example: IP was selling Bluffs 1 at $1.725M (bigger lot), but the neighbor diagonally across from me listed their Bluffs 1 (smallest lot and barely any upgrades) at $1.89M. Now they had to reduce to $1.799M. Does it mean dropping like a rock? Hell no. It only means they were greedy fools.

 

[OCtoSV]

Only 3 homes > $2M in the last 1 week of closings - that tier of the market seems much slower than before