Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[irvinehomeowner]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

 

[Liar Loan]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.

 

[OCtoSV]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

not really following this back and forth, all I get is better be patient and buy a unicorn (like 3CWG) which will hold the value better in a downturn.  >

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

 

[usctrojancpa]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

The median price per SF at the end of July 2019 was $476 and at the end of July 2022 it was $691 or up 45%.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

The median price per SF at the end of July 2019 was $476 and at the end of July 2022 it was $691 or up 45%.

Didn't Liar Loan predict that? Oh wait... the opposite. I think his credibility dropped 45%.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

10 year bond still falling......... towards 2.5 and then towards 2. If you want a house now is the time to try to strong arm a seller into lowering the price if you can. Negotiate the longest time frame u can get for inspections. If the yield keeps falling bet you'll end up with a sweet deal.

 

[Liar Loan]

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can?t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.

 

[Liar Loan]

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can?t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.

Your position has been debunked by the data, as well as the observations of a multiple TI posters.  Post your data for 3CWG's if you have it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can?t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.

Your position has been debunked by the data, as well as the observations of a multiple TI posters.  Post your data for 3CWG's if you have it.

What position? You claim to remember the discussion, why can't you quote the post where I stated that it was 15% across all Irvine products? There is a whole thread I started about 3-car garage homes and this was back then during real time so it's been posted here and referred back to numerous times.

Your position on what I claimed has been debunked by facts... just like your position in 2018-2019 and for the past 3 to 4 years where you kept predicting pain for Irvine.

Same with your position about buying in the last 4 years which I said is fine as long as you can afford it and stay put for a while. You argued against me... and then you went and bought your own home... LOL.

Liars do what liars do.

 

[TestingIrvine]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he?s yelling at
https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he?s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train

 

[Liar Loan]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he?s yelling at
https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he?s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train

Haha... good for you.  But we were discussing the Great Recession declines that IHO says weren't that bad. 

What about you, do you think Irvine only declined 15% in those days or closer to 30%?

 

[TestingIrvine]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he?s yelling at
https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he?s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train

Haha... good for you.  But we were discussing the Great Recession declines that IHO says weren't that bad. 

What about you, do you think Irvine only declined 15% in those days or closer to 30%?

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

 

[Danimal]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

 

[Davidlee199]

Average New Home Price, biggest drop since 2008.
If you don?t see it NOW, you will see it in 6-12 months.https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph?graph_id=909485

 

[potsticker]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

There are definitely still buyers and if a listing is in a good area, is in good condition, and priced right - it will move quickly. Sounds like you had 2 out of the 3, or maybe even the trifecta - so congrats to you. The market has definitely slowed. Sellers are still pretty stuck on their asking price and many can't be convinced to do a reduction.

 

[CalBears96]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats!

 

[TestingIrvine]

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.