Local business slowdown stories

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I just picked up lunch for myself and some co-workers at CPK in Irvine. The guy who handles takeout said he's never seen lunches as slow as they have been the last 2 days. They are sending people home left and right he said.
 
I go to the Houstons in Irvine almost every Saturday after doing some work at the office. Do a quick lunch and wine.

Last few weeks its been about 50% of normal. The other little restaurants like Jacks Shrimp are gone too. And Lennar`s

big eyesore across the street is still going up. Central Park West. That thing is going to sit for years empty. More shoebox

units for $ 600K is just not going to sell till they get to $ 250K.
 
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/...ls-seen-cutting-83-billion-from-laoc-economy/

<a title="Permanent Link: Housing ills seen cutting $8.3 billion from LA/OC economy" rel="bookmark" href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/11/27/housing-ills-seen-cutting-83-billion-from-laoc-economy/">Housing ills seen cutting $8.3 billion from LA/OC economy</a>

<h4>November 27th, 2007 · <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/11/27/housing-ills-seen-cutting-83-billion-from-laoc-economy/#comments">20 Comments</a> · posted by Jon Lansner</h4>



<p>The U.S. Conference of Mayors revealed an economic impact report that suggests that housing’s downturn will cut economic output in 361 major metro areas by a combined $166 billion, with an $8.3 billion drop in the LA/OC region (No. 2 dollar loss behind New York’s $10 billion.) That equals a 1% drop in local economic growth due to fallout from slowing housing sales and construction and related mortgage mayhem.</p>

<p>The math, done by by financial analysis at Global Insight, also estimates that that California municipalities will suffer the greatest potential losses nationwide in terms of tax revenues. Due to declining property values, property taxes in the state could ultimately decline by as much as $2.96 billion.</p>

<p>The USCM president Douglas Palmer, mayor of Trenton, N.J., says: “Not that long ago economists said housing was the backbone of our economy … Today the foreclosure crisis has the potential to break the back of our economy, as well as the backs of millions of American families, if we don’t do something soon. We must not let the economic numbers mask the face of this tragedy – the families who are struggling to pay their mortgages and stay in their homes.”</p>
 
FWIW, each of the last two nights, I've been to the Marketplace in Irvine. Other than the lights, you wouldn't know it is the Christmas season. There were not as many cars as I would have expected. Even in front of Toys 'R Us, only two rows of parking had more than 10 cars in them. Maybe we're all just procrastinators, or shopping online.
 
Not really a "business" but many school districts in SoCal are experiencing declining enrollment as many families move to more affordable areas such as the IE and out of CA.





While Irvine hasn't experienced the declining enrollment (probably due to new construction attracting families), many school districts have faced a continuous decline over the past few years. This can be problematic with the loss of ADA funding as fewer students enroll. You can track enrollment (if you're so inclined) on the state's <a href="http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/page2.asp?level=District&subject=Enrollment&submit1=Submit">Dataquest</a> website. Type in the school district and then click on the "Time Series" graph.
 
Actually Irvine has been experiencing declining enrollments in more established neighborhoods. They are closing two elementary schools, and the IUSD has been trying to sell the school sites.
 
Yes, and I wonder how much enrollment will go down if some of the young families in the newer homes are forced to move due to foreclosure, forced sales, etc. in the next couple of years. Maybe the young families will go live with their older parents/grandparents in the more established areas of Irvine and they'll have to re-open those closed schools ;-)



Oh well, at least with all the Baby Boomer teachers retiring, they won't have to lay off many teachers if any at all...and they will be much cheaper because they have fewer years of experience.
 
This chart from Calculated Risk on new home sales says it all:





<img src="http://img107.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2007/11/29/newhomesalesrecessionoct07-48o7b47rp.jpg" alt="" />
 
<p>Los Angeles Office Vacancy Rates</p>

<p>Click on the chart to see the OC vacancy rates</p>

<p>http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/12/los-angeles-office-vacancy-rates.html</p>
 
<p>Summary of OC RE related layoffs so far.</p>

<p>UPDATE Orange County mortgage casualties</p>

<p>http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/article_1690495.php</p>
 
I was at the home depot last night located in the woodbury center and noticed hardly any one was there. Im sure that had to do with the fact that it was pouring, but i never see anyone in there at other times either so i asked one of the customer service folks if that location is always this slow and he said it has been that way since it opened. I dont know why they just dont shut that store down. The delay of all of the projects in the area im sure wont help its case either.
 
I always think the same thing when I go to the Woodbury Home Depot... It is beyond slow. It's dead. But, to me, this is fine as I never wait in line. The new Pavilions in Orchard Hills is also very slow but, again, this is fine with me since I can do my grocery shopping in an uncrowded store.
 
<p>I went over to the TJ`s the other day at Woodbury. It seems to be doing OK. I like it because the one in Laguna Hills is like going to a Seizure World Convention. No matter what, it takes forever to get thru the line and check out. I noticed that Ralphs always has almost no cars in the parking lot at Woodbury. My friend Joe is opening another Peppino`s soon in the center. Lets see how that gets going. The Counter Burger joint had almost no one in it that night either. I just dont see these businesses making enough to cover the crazy rents and skim that the IC puts on them. </p>

<p> </p>
 
I stopped at a furniture store on PCH is sunset beach on Saturday.....going out of business. The owner has owned a furniture store for 20 years and been at the PCH location for 10 years. He said that about 7 months ago business came to a stand still. I asked him why he thought business was so slow and he said it was because of the real estate bust..





Also, the Lowes in the District is always empty.........the other day one of the cashiers was asleep on her feet.
 
Slow grocery stores are not where you want to buy your fresh meats and produce. Same thing for restaurants--I will only frequent those that are busy.
 
<p>Like 6-8 weeks ago I went to the <a href="http://elmomonster.blogspot.com/2007/01/mccormick-and-schmicks-pilsner-room.html">McCormick and Schmick's Pilsner Room - Irvine</a> happy hour.</p>

<p>It was a Friday around 6-7 pm, I have just left my office (located very close to this area) and I was eager to start the weekend with a glass of Hefeweizen. The Happy hour menu has very good food prices: $1.95 for a Cheeseburger, drinks are at regular prices, though.</p>

<p>After I've got my beer, I noticed that were only 3-4 small groups of people in total: a couple, a 5-6 person group from a nearby office (laughing out loud), and the rest were groups of 2-3 males but the rest of the tables were empty.</p>

<p>I ordered a Cheeseburger and while waiting for my food to arrive, some people started to leave. When my food arrived, there were only two other tables occupied. </p>

<p>I know one of the employees, I saw him walking by and I saluted him. He told me, this place is empty, is dead, is dead.</p>

<p>I told him, well consider that around the block used to be "New Century" and "BNC mortgage" and now they are gone.</p>

<p>He told me: Oh yes we used to have the bar the 2 floors with employees of "New Century", I remember their office parties. I guess mortgages impact everything. I think so, I said.</p>

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<p>Fascinating! I tried that place exactly once and found it to be packed wall-to-wall. I never went back. Maybe I should try it again... </p>
 
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