Local business slowdown stories

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I stopped off at my Volvo dealership after my morning hike and had a nice conversation with the service manager as he changed the burned out taillight in my 5-year old car. I asked him if things had slowed down in sales recently and he just looked at me and said something like, "you have no idea." And he said even the service dept has slowed down, which is strange, since you expect people to be holding on to their older cars longer. He also said that you wouldn't believe the arguments he gets from people about the cost of repairs, that he rarely used to get. "People have no money" is how he put it. This conversation made me feel better, as I had ended up in a pretty heated debate during the last few miles of this morning's hike, with a mortgage broker who was insisting that I was taking a short-term view of the market and that people who think long term know that housing always appreciates and real estate is the best investment you can make.
 
<p>I had a debate with a someone this weekend at a dinner party. He was trying to tell me that this house was a good deal:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=895644&utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email_this_listing&utm_nooverride=1">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=895644&utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email_this_listing&utm_nooverride=1</a></p>

<p>Thanks to this blog I was able to give him a good debate. But he's drunk on kool-aid so I gave up after awhile. There's no way in HELL I would buy this 1700 sq. ft house for 1.68 million. I would rent for a lifetime first.</p>
 
<p>ism-</p>

<p>Having worked in dealerships I can tell you that when money gets tight, scheduled maintenance and nuisance repairs (like taillights) often get put off or done at aftermarket shops. People suddenly discover that they can replace their own light bulbs, air filters, etc. They also start to delay things like oil changes and tune-ups until the last possible minute to save money. I would say dealer service income is a leading indicator of the local economy.</p>
 
I've taken my car to the same dealer for service for 9 years, except for oil changes. Last week I got a phone call reminding me that it has been over three months since I took my car in. That was definitely a first.
 
I took the kids to the bestbuy on Jamboree and 5 around 1pm this afternoon. I was very surprised to see the parking lot was so empty. The store is not very nice at all compared with the others I have been to. Not sure it is just that Bestbuy is not busy, or it is slow across all the stores.
 
<p>My mom works at an independent tire and mechanic shop as a bookkeeper. Surprisingly the business has been doing really well lately. There is a but of course and that is they are having record sales on credit. It is the most she has ever seen and she has been working there for about 15 years now. The other thing is when the mechanics do work on the car and they find something else like the need for new rotors people will put it off. I've known the owner all my life and they are not the kind of shop that will try to tell you your flux capacitor needs to be rebuilt but when something needs to be done they will say so.</p>

<p>Also when I hear mortgage brokers say that housing is the best investment you can make I am embarrassed that I was ever in that industry. They have known only of a short term picture. It's sad because most good brokers have a subscription to mortgage market guide and they talk about inflation all the time. Rising inflation + declining or even flat prices = bad investment. It really isn't that complex and I bet ISM's son could figure out that the math makes for a bad investment.</p>

<p>BTW mortgage market guide called me the other day because I didn't renew my subscription last month. They had some special pricing and would throw in some other great freebies. I should ask how much the freebies are "worth" and have them deduct it off the price. It could be worth it so I could get the Kiplinger reports. Of course I could do without the Kool Aid they give out for free too.</p>
 
The irritating thing about this conversation I was in with the broker was how he kept insisting that it was a personal choice, if I was more focused on the short term and didn't "want to have a home" as he put it (which immediately pissed me off), then "being a renter" was the decision that was best for me and my situation. As though I were somehow deficient, still pushing that "lowly renter" propaganda, and am not truly a grown-up since I rent from a landlord instead of a bank (my words,not his!). At about that point, another hiker started to get really defensive and I realized I probably needed to just shut up - earlier in the hike she had mentioned that she just bought a house. I had become almost strident in my argument because I was letting this guy's mortgage broker spin get me angry. So I shut up but by that time we were back at the starting point. I will try to avoid the topic from now on at these hikes, because other than that, they are a lot of fun and a great workout.
 
irvine123:





In the sake of fairness, that Best Buy is almost always empty.





It's not the nicest store but I go there anyway because it's not a zoo like others (Metro Pointe comes to mind).
 
calgal - Does your friend live in Harbor View, (port streets)? I have noticed that the folks who live there think the whole world may collapse, but it won't affect their neighborhood. They may be right, but I would bet otherwise.
 
<p>awgee, yeah, you got it - the infamous port streets. The bubble has excluded them {sarcasm}. The house was purchased in April of 1999 for $558k. They probably put about 100k into the house. Now they want 1.68M. That would be over a <u>MILLION dollar profit</u> in only 8 1/2 years. YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!</p>

<p>If we did a traditional 30-year mortgage we would have to put down $366k and our monthly payments would be about 10k per month. The income requirement is $420k per year. </p>

<p>No Thank You! </p>

<p>The house isn't anything spectacular. It's a one-level ranch with 3 small bedrooms and 2 baths. The master bath isn't anything grand either. And <u>NO</u> AIR CONDITIONING. That should be standard for ANY house over 1 million! </p>
 
<p>Cargo decline is another sign of slowing economy</p>

<p><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ports9oct09,0,7945935.story?coll=la-home-center">http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ports9oct09,0,7945935.story?coll=la-home-center</a></p>

<p>The falloff of goods from toys to kitchen tiles flowing into the L.A., Long Beach and other ports stuns observers.</p>
 
I've heard that there is a booming business in "Stupid Pills". There was a rather large shipment of stupid pills delivered to the Anaheim Convention center for the annual real estate agents convention.
 
<p>Speaking of "stupid pills" - if we left a box of free IHB T-shirts over there, would some be dumb enough to not know what it stood for and wear it? </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Anonymous - </p>

<p><em>"people pinch their pennies and aren't as fashion conscious, the Target educational donations (a percentage of what the parents who shop at Target spend) was the bulk of the school fundraising donations."</em></p>

<p>I had to read that like 5x over.. I was like.. how would non-fashion conscious people help the Target donations?!</p>

<p>I shop at Target . I buy clothes for fun and work - and get compliments for them too!


There are good deals and cute things to buy. The quality is medium - so you get what you pay for.</p>

<p>So I was totally confused about your statement about Target...hehe. </p>
 
<p>I was thinking about some article I had read where person X's friend asked person X where they got their sweater, they liked it, and person X gave some plebian store (Sears?) answer. Then person X's friend declared she'd rather die than wear a sweater from that store. Person X thought that was strange, and the fact that her friend was spending so much money on designer duds, vactions, etc. was strange too. Long story short, person X's friend lost their home a few years later as they'd refi'd too much :).</p>

<p>My wardrobe is nerdly sad. I'm sure if I just went to Target and replaced it all, it'd be about 400% better </p>
 
<p>Anonymous:</p>

<p>For the real shallow Southern Californians, It is not about the clothes you wear, it is what you look like without them! lol </p>

<p> </p>
 
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