Local business slowdown stories

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Anonymous_IHB

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Hi, I noticed around town things seem quieter at local businesses. Restaurants don't seem as packed, and the car wash I usually use that used to be packed is very quiet now. Has anyone else noticed things seem quieter (ie. people are pulling back on the spending)?
 
<p>Movie theaters and in-restaurant bars seem active at The Marketplace (drowning sorrows, escaping reality perhaps?), though the waiting areas outside Macaroni Grill and On the Border were empty last Friday night at 7:30.</p>
 
There seems to be a lot less traffic, or maybe that's just my imagination. Shopping centers also seem less crowded at the lunch hour. In the past I wouldn't even attempt to go anywhere between 11:30-1:30 because it was impossible to find a parking place anywehre. Now I can go at noon and not have to fight someone for a parking space. The only exception is The District. Maybe when the novelty has warn off, it won't be such a mad house
 
<p><strong>Consumer Loses Cool</strong></p>

<p>http://www.forbes.com/home/markets/2007/09/25/consumer-confidence-homes-markets-econ-cx_af_0925markets15.html</p>
 
I went to Red Robin in the Tustin Marketplace a few weeks ago on a Friday night at 6:30PM. Doing this in the past meant you either waited a half an hour or sat in the bar.





But last time I went it was dead. They probably only had 75% of the tables full and we got right in. Too circumstantial to say things are dying off for sure because of one visit, but I found it odd.
 
<p>If you need more confirmation look at this. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MSSR">http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MSSR</a> McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants. The one in Irvine is usually packed on the weekends. Last week we went in at it was dead. I got a bad feeling that we are just starting to see the results of a slowing economy. </p>
 
See the thread about the <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/908/oc-job-numbers-for-august/">August job numbers</a> and read my comment on the retail jobs.
 
No, no, no. You got it all wrong. The secondary market is coming back. The big players were just scared because they were unsure of value, but fundamental value is still there. There will be tons of money now that BB lowered rates.<p>


<b>NOT!!!</b>
 
I went over to the OC Register blog today, and some of the bulls-in-denial were peddling that line of crap. You should do read some of those comments, they are quite amusing.
 
I received the most interesting email today. It was a solicitation for an educational seminar on derivative investing. Mentioned are CDOs, CMOs, CLOs, ABSs, etc. Mortgage paper ... that sounds attractive. What a riot!
 
<p>They are predicting that this could be one of the worst holiday seasons since the back to school shopping was so bad.</p>

<p>I think there will be some opportunity in mbs deals and the like. I would image Paulson is gearing up for it. He has made a killing shorting it.</p>
 
You should seriously see the break room at my office. At one time, nobody would ever eat in there. Everyone will go out to eat at some of the local restaurants, and people would never pack lunch.





Today, I couldn't find a place to sit it was so packed.





BTW, I guess this Christmas is a great time for us to buy a TV for our new place. Horrible holiday season means great deals doesn't it?
 
<p>The interesting smoke test will be the local school PTSA Target donations.</p>

<p>At a school in another state, where people pinch their pennies and aren't as fashion conscious, the Target educational donations (a percentage of what the parents who shop at Target spend) was the bulk of the school fundraising donations.</p>

<p>I hear from my local Irvine school, a few years ago, when they tried to sign parents up for the Target donations, they made hardly anything.</p>

<p>But now that Target is nearby (Spectrum Center) and people are cutting back on the clothing budget .... (you will know things are truly catestrophic when OC people have to wear clothes from Target - heaven forbid ) ... and the school Target donations go up ... then we'll know people ar e REALLY cutting back.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
Blue - maybe you should wait for the people moving out of McMansions to have fire sales on their stuff (ex. there's no room for the 2nd TV in their new rental apartment).
 
<p>I had dinner with several people who work within the restaurant industry, and they all observed a common trend. The amount of traffic has dropped rather significantly, but what they found more interesting was that there was a dramatic shift in how people paid for their food. Even up to several months ago, people almost always paid for their food in cash, but as of late all they see is plastic. They weren't sure if people just stopped carrying their $100 bills anymore, but even if they did, people would rather eat their expensive food and charge it so that they can pay it off another day. </p>

<p>Anonymous - Right next to my place, there is a house where they seem to be selling just about everything. They bought the house back in May of this year, but have put up their home for sale by owner, and are trying to sell all of their goodies. The funny thing is, all of their electronics and furniture seems practically new, and because of it, they want near full price for all of their goods. Good luck trying to move those things at full price. (To give you an idea, they have a Sharp 52" LCD tv, and they want $2600 for it)</p>
 
<p>Restaurants are dead! I went to Bandera on Thursday and it was really slow. It's usually packed with your usual late 20's a 30 somethings. We went to Gulfstream on Saturday night and it was really slow as well.</p>

<p>Cigarettes, alcohol, and fast food are the stocks to buy at the beginning of a recession.</p>
 
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