Land SE of PS/Altair (Modified: Environmental Concerns Broadly)
- Thread starter peregrine
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Some people only believe in data, even if the context, sample or time measurement has flaws.
Yes, new home construction can have a big factor on resale homes in a village especially if you have a lot of unsold inventory like you do in Altair and Cadence Park in the higher end market and since buyers know that builders willing to negotiate on standing inventory home they'll use to their advantage when bidding on resale homes.
Well, the data is the easy part so I'm not surprised. Understand qualitative factors can be difficult and take a lot more time for people that are only closely tracking real estate on a regular basis. Irvine is a tract home market where comp analysis is much easier than other cities where you have more unique homes but even if you have homes that are the same floor plans in Irvine you have to consider the factors that I mentioned earlier to approximate values.
mountaineer
New member
Look at Redfin sold in last 3 months, condo, 3 bedroom data:
roughly 130 sold
Below the median line of $/sqft (below $457/sqft), we have:
- Woodbury 12
- PS 9
- GP 9
Above the median line of $/sqft (above $457/sqft), we have:
- GP 1
- Woodbury 2
- PS 5
Can you tell me what this data says? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Again, broken record here, but herd mentality against PS exists, and it is NOT backed up by any factual data. Just fuzzy math, fuzzy logic.
I do healthcare data research. You can literally connect toe nail fungus to emphysema, if you carefully "slice" the data however you want it (also seen in today's politics with gerrymandering). That's why statisticians get paid what they get paid, to point out the fallacies in such conclusions. That data above is raw, per Redfin, on SOLD homes with that specific criteria.
roughly 130 sold
Below the median line of $/sqft (below $457/sqft), we have:
- Woodbury 12
- PS 9
- GP 9
Above the median line of $/sqft (above $457/sqft), we have:
- GP 1
- Woodbury 2
- PS 5
Can you tell me what this data says? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Again, broken record here, but herd mentality against PS exists, and it is NOT backed up by any factual data. Just fuzzy math, fuzzy logic.
I do healthcare data research. You can literally connect toe nail fungus to emphysema, if you carefully "slice" the data however you want it (also seen in today's politics with gerrymandering). That's why statisticians get paid what they get paid, to point out the fallacies in such conclusions. That data above is raw, per Redfin, on SOLD homes with that specific criteria.
mountaineer
New member
Then feel free to just compare PS and GP only if you want new construction comparisons.
Anybody can pull the data from redfin to a CSV file and sort it through Excel. High-finance can also do it.
It's all sold homes, new construction or not.
And to answer your question, Woodbury (which is NOT a new construction) has MORE sold below $457/sqft than the two villages (PS and GP) with new construction. I guess that defeats your argument.
PS also has more sold above the $457/sqft than GP and Woodbury.
Again, I also "sliced" the data, but did it raw without any pre-purpose to do it this way. You're more than welcome to try different criteria and see what the data shows. This is just one slice. I just wanted to show you that comparing two homes and doing some math trickery with 4% return and MR this and MR that and 65k minus is not really a valid showcase of a village's performance.
Anybody can pull the data from redfin to a CSV file and sort it through Excel. High-finance can also do it.
It's all sold homes, new construction or not.
And to answer your question, Woodbury (which is NOT a new construction) has MORE sold below $457/sqft than the two villages (PS and GP) with new construction. I guess that defeats your argument.
PS also has more sold above the $457/sqft than GP and Woodbury.
Again, I also "sliced" the data, but did it raw without any pre-purpose to do it this way. You're more than welcome to try different criteria and see what the data shows. This is just one slice. I just wanted to show you that comparing two homes and doing some math trickery with 4% return and MR this and MR that and 65k minus is not really a valid showcase of a village's performance.
mountaineer
New member
Mety: you were the one asking for apples to apples comparison, not apples (new construction) to oranges (woodbury, older construction). That was my response and it's a valid sentence.
Now if you want to compare apples (new construction PS) vs apples (new construction GP), then be my guest.
Same number of homes in PS and GP sold below $457/sqft
More number of homes in PS sold above $457/sqft compared to GP
In the last 3 months, condo, 3 bedroom.
No matter how I answer with data, you have another counter-statement that confuses me.
PS homes, based on this data, are NOT being sold as cheaper $/sqft compared to GP. In fact PS sale transactions are higher than GP in terms of $/sqft.
PS homes, based on this data, are NOT being sold as cheaper $/sqft compared to Woodbury. In fact PS sale transactions are higher than Woodbury in terms of $/sqft.
I honestly am not sure what else to say here.
Yes, this is just a slice of data. Like I said, I did not pre-meditate the slicing. It was just a random slice.
This trend may shift when looking at SFR, or above $1.25 range that is a smaller segment of the market due to affordability.
You may run the slice a different way and come with different data. And that's perfectly fine.
But since you listed all those PS homes on Redfin being sold so "cheap", and you keep asking why PS is so cheap, I wanted to run a slice similar to your search to see the SOLD data, not just listing data. Yes, delusional people in NorthPark list their homes for $550/sqft and they don't sell it at that listing. That doesn't mean anything. They're just feeding the frenzy of FCP and Asians who prefer these predominantly Asian neighborhoods.
Yes, PS homes being cheaper than other similar villages (GP, Woodbury) is a myth, when you look at homes sold in last 3 months (active market) in 2019, condo 3 bed room. That may change in future. But speaking of what's going on now, this is the trend.
Now if you want to compare apples (new construction PS) vs apples (new construction GP), then be my guest.
Same number of homes in PS and GP sold below $457/sqft
More number of homes in PS sold above $457/sqft compared to GP
In the last 3 months, condo, 3 bedroom.
No matter how I answer with data, you have another counter-statement that confuses me.
PS homes, based on this data, are NOT being sold as cheaper $/sqft compared to GP. In fact PS sale transactions are higher than GP in terms of $/sqft.
PS homes, based on this data, are NOT being sold as cheaper $/sqft compared to Woodbury. In fact PS sale transactions are higher than Woodbury in terms of $/sqft.
I honestly am not sure what else to say here.
Yes, this is just a slice of data. Like I said, I did not pre-meditate the slicing. It was just a random slice.
This trend may shift when looking at SFR, or above $1.25 range that is a smaller segment of the market due to affordability.
You may run the slice a different way and come with different data. And that's perfectly fine.
But since you listed all those PS homes on Redfin being sold so "cheap", and you keep asking why PS is so cheap, I wanted to run a slice similar to your search to see the SOLD data, not just listing data. Yes, delusional people in NorthPark list their homes for $550/sqft and they don't sell it at that listing. That doesn't mean anything. They're just feeding the frenzy of FCP and Asians who prefer these predominantly Asian neighborhoods.
Yes, PS homes being cheaper than other similar villages (GP, Woodbury) is a myth, when you look at homes sold in last 3 months (active market) in 2019, condo 3 bed room. That may change in future. But speaking of what's going on now, this is the trend.
mountaineer
New member
Same search
2019
Last 6 months (June 2019 to Dec 2019 - arguably peak of transactions in several years)
Condo, 3 bedroom, no other filter
SOLD homes (not what listings are - listings are driven by frenzy)
Median $/sqft is 468
Woodbury
21 (below $/sqft of 468) vs 4 (above $/sqft of 468)
ratio 5.25
GP
20 (below median) vs 4 (above median)
ratio 5
QH
6 (below median) vs 3 (above median)
ratio 2 (worse than PS ratio)
Northpark
6 (below 468) vs 3 (above 468)
ratio 2 (worse than PS ratio)
PS
24 (below median) vs 14 (above median)
ratio 1.7
Again, the last 6 months data show clearly that PS is not cheaper than Woodbury or Great Park, on this specific search, which is a pretty large chunk of the market. Looking at ratios of above vs below median, PS is on par with QH and NorthPark when you look at the ratios.
And the higher tier is obviously below:
CV 5 (below 468) vs 19 (above 468)
SG 0 vs 20
OH 0 vs 11
EW 0 vs 6
Laguna Altura 0 vs 6
Clearly SG is the winner here, mainly driven by the performance of its Elementary School, my guess is. OH driven by the FCB, obviously to anyone that walks or lives there (I happen to go there twice daily to pick up/drop off).
2019
Last 6 months (June 2019 to Dec 2019 - arguably peak of transactions in several years)
Condo, 3 bedroom, no other filter
SOLD homes (not what listings are - listings are driven by frenzy)
Median $/sqft is 468
Woodbury
21 (below $/sqft of 468) vs 4 (above $/sqft of 468)
ratio 5.25
GP
20 (below median) vs 4 (above median)
ratio 5
QH
6 (below median) vs 3 (above median)
ratio 2 (worse than PS ratio)
Northpark
6 (below 468) vs 3 (above 468)
ratio 2 (worse than PS ratio)
PS
24 (below median) vs 14 (above median)
ratio 1.7
Again, the last 6 months data show clearly that PS is not cheaper than Woodbury or Great Park, on this specific search, which is a pretty large chunk of the market. Looking at ratios of above vs below median, PS is on par with QH and NorthPark when you look at the ratios.
And the higher tier is obviously below:
CV 5 (below 468) vs 19 (above 468)
SG 0 vs 20
OH 0 vs 11
EW 0 vs 6
Laguna Altura 0 vs 6
Clearly SG is the winner here, mainly driven by the performance of its Elementary School, my guess is. OH driven by the FCB, obviously to anyone that walks or lives there (I happen to go there twice daily to pick up/drop off).
mountaineer
New member
Same search, this time likely encompassing most SFRs and a few larger condos
Last 6 months
homes > 2500 sqft
no price filter (obviously includes 2-3-4 mil houses in OH)
no other filters
median 461
Northpark 12 (below the median $/sqft) vs 3 (above the median $/sqft) (ratio 4)
Woodbury 14 (below) vs 5 (above) (ratio 3-4)
Northwood 28 (below) vs 8 (above) (ratio 3-4)
PS 6 (below) vs 4 (above) (ratio 1.5) doing better than Woodbury, NorthPark, Northwood
GP 15 (below) vs 15 (above) (ratio 1) doing better than Woodbury, NorthPark, Northwood
CV 2 vs 5
EW 3 vs 13
SG 5 vs 11
OH 3 vs 34
Laguna Altura 0 vs 4
last 6 months
homes > 2500 sqft
priced below 1.75 mil
median 443
Northwood 24 vs 9 (ratio 2.66)
PS 5 vs 2 (ratio 2.5) I guess you can say PS is in bottom quartile here on SFR < 1.75 mil compared to GP, but similar to Woodbury - one search criteria finally where you can actually say PS is "cheaper" than the rest of villages, which again, in some of our minds, it's a steal rather than a poor performance as PS overall is middle-of-the-pack performing on all other searches here.
Woodbury 13 vs 6 (ratio 2.1) not much better performance than PS but yes, somewhat better.
Northpark 9 vs 5 (ratio ~2)
GP 12 vs 16 (ratio 0.75)
SG 2 vs 12
QH 1 vs 6
EW 1 vs 15
OH 1 vs 12
Laguna Altura 0 vs 2
CV 0 vs 7
Again, I've sliced the data so many ways to see if I can catch PS doing poorer than others. Yes, finally, PS is doing worse than other in the very last specific search. And you win! But truly, please look at data before arguing one village is doing poorer than the others.
As others have said, PS has room to grow. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Who knows? But one thing for sure is that if you're looking for SFR below 1.75, SG, CV, EW, OH below 1.75 are all trading at their peaks. And they're not a bargain and not a sure thing to appreciate drastically more. We all wish we could buy in 2013 or 2014 but it's 2019 and peaks always end up dropping, as they have from 2018 to 2019. In almost any search criteria I put in, NorthPark, Northwood, and Woodbury are in the bottom quartile and definitely in the bottom half (and please don't accuse me of bashing any of these, I absolutely loved Northpark and Woodbury as neighborhoods, miss NorthPark on a daily basis, but didn't have what we wanted and the trend was worrisome on whether it'd appreciate or devalue). And that's the tale of a "drop" which would happen to all of the new villages (PS, GP, EW, OH, SG, CV) in 10 years. Question is where along this rollercoaster do you want to buy in, at the peak, while it's undervalued and may peak (or may not), or during the inevitable fall (NorthPark, Northwood, Woodbury)
And this is just one analysis based on data. I'm probably wrong in form or shape, who knows. But at least I am quoting you raw independent data, not my opinion.
Last 6 months
homes > 2500 sqft
no price filter (obviously includes 2-3-4 mil houses in OH)
no other filters
median 461
Northpark 12 (below the median $/sqft) vs 3 (above the median $/sqft) (ratio 4)
Woodbury 14 (below) vs 5 (above) (ratio 3-4)
Northwood 28 (below) vs 8 (above) (ratio 3-4)
PS 6 (below) vs 4 (above) (ratio 1.5) doing better than Woodbury, NorthPark, Northwood
GP 15 (below) vs 15 (above) (ratio 1) doing better than Woodbury, NorthPark, Northwood
CV 2 vs 5
EW 3 vs 13
SG 5 vs 11
OH 3 vs 34
Laguna Altura 0 vs 4
last 6 months
homes > 2500 sqft
priced below 1.75 mil
median 443
Northwood 24 vs 9 (ratio 2.66)
PS 5 vs 2 (ratio 2.5) I guess you can say PS is in bottom quartile here on SFR < 1.75 mil compared to GP, but similar to Woodbury - one search criteria finally where you can actually say PS is "cheaper" than the rest of villages, which again, in some of our minds, it's a steal rather than a poor performance as PS overall is middle-of-the-pack performing on all other searches here.
Woodbury 13 vs 6 (ratio 2.1) not much better performance than PS but yes, somewhat better.
Northpark 9 vs 5 (ratio ~2)
GP 12 vs 16 (ratio 0.75)
SG 2 vs 12
QH 1 vs 6
EW 1 vs 15
OH 1 vs 12
Laguna Altura 0 vs 2
CV 0 vs 7
Again, I've sliced the data so many ways to see if I can catch PS doing poorer than others. Yes, finally, PS is doing worse than other in the very last specific search. And you win! But truly, please look at data before arguing one village is doing poorer than the others.
As others have said, PS has room to grow. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Who knows? But one thing for sure is that if you're looking for SFR below 1.75, SG, CV, EW, OH below 1.75 are all trading at their peaks. And they're not a bargain and not a sure thing to appreciate drastically more. We all wish we could buy in 2013 or 2014 but it's 2019 and peaks always end up dropping, as they have from 2018 to 2019. In almost any search criteria I put in, NorthPark, Northwood, and Woodbury are in the bottom quartile and definitely in the bottom half (and please don't accuse me of bashing any of these, I absolutely loved Northpark and Woodbury as neighborhoods, miss NorthPark on a daily basis, but didn't have what we wanted and the trend was worrisome on whether it'd appreciate or devalue). And that's the tale of a "drop" which would happen to all of the new villages (PS, GP, EW, OH, SG, CV) in 10 years. Question is where along this rollercoaster do you want to buy in, at the peak, while it's undervalued and may peak (or may not), or during the inevitable fall (NorthPark, Northwood, Woodbury)
And this is just one analysis based on data. I'm probably wrong in form or shape, who knows. But at least I am quoting you raw independent data, not my opinion.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
It's not just pure cuts of data, anyone can do that as mentioned by mountaineer. The true analysis comes in when you are overlaying qualitative factors on top of the raw data like the following factors...
Size of the home (smaller homes trade for a higher price per SF, think of this as the Costco buying in bulk factor)
Attached versus Detached (detached homes trade for a higher price per SF compared to attached homes so if a village has more attached closings and another village which has more detached closings that'll throw the data off)
High mello roos versus low mello roos and high HOA vesus low HOA (properties with lower HOA and mello roos will tend to trade at a higher price SF than ones with high HOA and mello roos)
Lot size and location premiums (homes with larger and/or more desirable lots will trade for higher prices so if one village has more desirable lots than it will trade above average...think if turtle rock and turtle ridge)
Turnkey versus non-turnkey (homes that are turnkey and/or fully remodeled will trade for higher prices)
Single story vs two story vs three story (the less stories the higher price per SF)
Floor plans (newer open floor plans are more desirable the older compartmentalized ones)
I've always found that residential real estate is a both a mix of art and science or qualitative and quantitative factors.
Size of the home (smaller homes trade for a higher price per SF, think of this as the Costco buying in bulk factor)
Attached versus Detached (detached homes trade for a higher price per SF compared to attached homes so if a village has more attached closings and another village which has more detached closings that'll throw the data off)
High mello roos versus low mello roos and high HOA vesus low HOA (properties with lower HOA and mello roos will tend to trade at a higher price SF than ones with high HOA and mello roos)
Lot size and location premiums (homes with larger and/or more desirable lots will trade for higher prices so if one village has more desirable lots than it will trade above average...think if turtle rock and turtle ridge)
Turnkey versus non-turnkey (homes that are turnkey and/or fully remodeled will trade for higher prices)
Single story vs two story vs three story (the less stories the higher price per SF)
Floor plans (newer open floor plans are more desirable the older compartmentalized ones)
I've always found that residential real estate is a both a mix of art and science or qualitative and quantitative factors.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
Some people only believe in data, even if the context, sample or time measurement has flaws.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Happiness said:
Yes, new home construction can have a big factor on resale homes in a village especially if you have a lot of unsold inventory like you do in Altair and Cadence Park in the higher end market and since buyers know that builders willing to negotiate on standing inventory home they'll use to their advantage when bidding on resale homes.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Well, the data is the easy part so I'm not surprised. Understand qualitative factors can be difficult and take a lot more time for people that are only closely tracking real estate on a regular basis. Irvine is a tract home market where comp analysis is much easier than other cities where you have more unique homes but even if you have homes that are the same floor plans in Irvine you have to consider the factors that I mentioned earlier to approximate values.
