iPhone 6

[Irvinecommuter]

And this is why it's a "social shift" when Apple changes things even if they have been done before.

Not one Android phone sees these kind of lines or pre-orders... not one.

Because people with Iphones are locked into one manufacturer. 

Yet if Android owns more of the smartphone market, doesn't the math say you will get some type of line for at least the manufacturer with the higher market share... Samsung?

Say Samsung's Galaxy S line is 1/4 of the total Android market (which is low) and that's equivalent to at least 1/4th the numbers of Apple's ownership (lower even more).

Have you ever even seen a quarter of line for any Galaxy S release? A tenth?

Let's talk resale value... my old iPhone 4 which is over 4 years old is worth $75 straight up from Best Buy ($200 if I trade in for a 6 at Best Buy), do you know of any 4-year old Android phone worth that much? I bet my 4-year old iPhone 4 is worth more than your 2 year old S4.

All these things when you put them together is how Apple is still able to influence the mobile market despite being over 2 years behind on some technologies.

What I find funny is that when Apple does something before anyone else, everyone says it's gimmicky... but when Apple does something after everyone else, they are "behind" or "copycats".

Again..you are mixing up Android with manufacturer.  Iphone 6 sold 10 million units this weekend.  The S4 sold 4 million units in its first weekend.  So, if we are using your 1/4 market share, it would mean that a dedicate manufacturer for Android would sell about 16 million units.  Also, Apple is selling two models...6 and 6 plus.  It would be like combining the sales figure of the S4 and the Note 3.

You also have to remember that most people in this country only upgrade when their contract is up.  For Androids, new phones come out all the time so people can elect to upgrade a number of phones at all times of the year.  Iphone are locked into 1 year cycles so people who come out of contract could likely wait for the next "generation" especially on a major upgrade like the iphone 6. 

As for resale, a Galaxy S4 sells for about $200-300 on Ebay out of contract.  Also, I got my S4 for free after waiting about 6 months after it came out.  Conversely, iphone 5 were still at $200 prior to the Iphone 6 coming out.  You can get a s5 for $80 on Amazon right now...you can get a HTC One M8 for $50, LG G3 for $50, a Note 3 for $75.  Iphone 5s still costs you $99 right now. 

Upfront costs are important because it makes one consider whether the improved phone is worth the cost.  There was a big different between a Galaxy s2 versus a Galaxy S4 but S5...not so much.  Thus, the sales of the S4 were good but the S5, not so much. 

A lot of people kept their iphone 4 or 4S because the upgraded presented by the iphone 5 or iphone 5s was not worth the $200 upgrade fee.  Thus you have 4 years of pentup demand as opposed to your two year demand.    Apple has a dedicate audience who are used to and like iOS.  Thus, any significant upgrades in the hardware will create an influence. 

It is interesting that people are happy about the 10 million unit sales for the Iphone 6...iphone 5s/5c sold 9 million units in its first weekend and that was considered to be a meh number.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Again..you are mixing up Android with manufacturer.

No... I'm not. I specifically pointed out the top Android phone maker, Samsung.

Iphone 6 sold 10 million units this weekend.  The S4 sold 4 million units in its first weekend.  So, if we are using your 1/4 market share, it would mean that a dedicate manufacturer for Android would sell about 16 million units.

You are obfuscating here. If there were a dedicated Android phone maker, the numbers of market share would be different. I'm talking the current market, a specific maker, Samsung, who markets a flagship phone, the Galaxy S series, head-to-head against Apple's iPhone.

Also, Apple is selling two models...6 and 6 plus.  It would be like combining the sales figure of the S4 and the Note 3.

I can agree to this. Let's see what the S5 + Note 4 sales are by the holidays compared to the 6 and 6 Plus.

It's common knowledge that Samsung's "sales" numbers are "shipped" units, not actually sold ones. If they were really "selling" that many units the first weekend, where were the lines?

I can cherry pick numbers too, according to this article, it took Samsung 27 days to *ship* 10 million S4 units and 25 days to *ship* 10 million S5 units.
http://www.ibtimes.com/samsung-gala...rtphone-beats-galaxy-s4-initial-sales-1582476

So it takes the 1/4 market share Android phone over 10 times the number of days to ship the same number of units that Apple actually sells?

A lot of people kept their iphone 4 or 4S because the upgraded presented by the iphone 5 or iphone 5s was not worth the $200 upgrade fee.  Thus you have 4 years of pentup demand as opposed to your two year demand.

But didn't you say this?

I grasp it but not all Apple users are going to upgrade to Iphone 6 as many of them are still under contract.

So are they under contract or have they been out of contract for 4 years?

But my point is more general in that somehow  iphone going to 4.7/5.5 inches will turn the world upside down (i.e. fashion changes).

You would be surprised, you even admitted it:

Apple has a dedicate audience who are used to and like iOS.  Thus, any significant upgrades in the hardware will create an influence. 

So does Apple have an influence or not?

It is interesting that people are happy about the 10 million unit sales for the Iphone 6...iphone 5s/5c sold 9 million units in its first weekend and that was considered to be a meh number.

Who said 9m was a "meh" number? That's significant considering it was a bump upgrade. And still double that of the S4 "ship" number despite the S4 being a major change over the S3.

I actually expected more than 10m sales but I'm assuming the shortfall is not enough 6 Pluses to go around and even 6s were sold out at many places.

That's the other thing, I don't recall any Samsung Galaxy S phone ever being out of stock for more than a few days (or even at all). We were able to get the Note 3 on release date, no line, no wait, no shortage.

Just remember this thread when you buy pants that have bigger pockets.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

@IHO:

The discussion is getting too long again so I'll try and respond.

1)  You cannot compare the market in which there is one manufacturer versus another with multiple manufacturers.  One has a dedicated audience while the other have to compete with other manufacturers.  It is no different in comparing Apple PCs versus Windows PCs.  Again, going with your numbers of the Galaxy holding 1/4 of the Android market, 4 million in sales means 16 million overall.

2)  How am I cherry picking numbers?  Even in the article your listed, the author states that units shipped is in line with number of units sold.  Since Samsung doesn't really sell its own phone, it can't provide a "sold" number.  As for your statement about time versus number sold, the first weekend is generally the best weekend by far.  Apple isn't going to sell another 10 million unit next weekend.  Again, Samsung S4 has 4 million unit shipped/sold versus Iphone's 10 million in its open weekend.

3)  Yes because there were still plenty of people who upgraded to 5s who are still under contract.  I would expect that there would be more demand for an upgrade to the 6/6s because it was a fundamental change in hardware.

4)  I have never said that Apple does not have an influence.  I am just stating that Apple no longer has the influence that it had 5 years ago, which most of the media still seems to portray.  Clearly, holding a significant market share will have influence but the fact that people line up to get the phone is more an indication of the fervor of the Apple fans, rather than actual numbers.

A lot of people already have big phones and phablets.  No one has needed bigger pockets.  To assume that just because that Apple made the jump means a complete re-design of fashion would be optimistic at best.

5)  As for shortages, Apple has always not made enough and claimed that it was out of stock.  This happened for the 4s too but we walked in on day two and got one without a wait.  It's actually pretty smart marketing. 

I mean, you're telling me that Apple didn't anticipate more than 10 million units sold in the opening weekend when the 5s/5c sold 9 million a year earlier? 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You are missing the point again.

- Have you ever seen a line for an Android phone even close to what you see for the iPhone?
- Have you ever seen such media coverage for any Android phone?
- Do people stay home and wait for UPS to deliver their Galaxy S5?

You've pointed out all the evidence as to why Apple does have an impact on society. One vendor, forced upgrades, brand loyalty and now screens as big as Android phones.

Now that Apple has joined the big-screen smartphone fray, you will see those big boy pants on every corner... just like small lots... bigger is better.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You are missing the point again.

- Have you ever seen a line for an Android phone even close to what you see for the iPhone?
- Have you ever seen such media coverage for any Android phone?
- Do people stay home and wait for UPS to deliver their Galaxy S5?

You've pointed out all the evidence as to why Apple does have an impact on society. One vendor, forced upgrades, brand loyalty and now screens as big as Android phones.

Now that Apple has joined the big-screen smartphone fray, you will see those big boy pants on every corner... just like small lots... bigger is better.

Again...those points go to the fervor of the Apple fans (which are undoubted).  But as an owner of a phone, I don't think I would ever line up for a new phone unless my phone was broken.  Even if Samsung S6 was the greatest thing ever, my S4 works fine and I would wait until it gets cheaper before I get it.  That's a factor that is really undersold for Androids.  I know that the S4 would be free in a few months so why pay $200 for it? 

Again, I have never said that Apple doesn't have an influence.  On the contrary, I have said that it does.  The question is the impact of such an influence.  Don't forget, Apple had the market all for itself in 2010, now it's just another major player.  Ipad have a similar issue whether it was the full market for awhile and now has 32% of the market (which is still no. 1). 

Media coverage is based upon its own perception of what it believes to be the norm.  In this case, they're about 3 years behind. 

Again...people already have big phones (S4 is a 5 inch screen) and the Note is already into its 4th generation.  People have learned to live with larger screen phones without a need for upgrading anything.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Don't forget, Apple had the market all for itself in 2010, now it's just another major player. 

Uh... I think you forgot... Apple was never alone in the smartphone market, they were not the first, nor the last.

But they are the only tech company that controls both hardware and OS in 3 different platforms, which to me, is impactful.

I understand that when it comes to phones, *you* are about value, choice and function (as am I)... but that's not the impact crowd. So while what Apple does may not affect you, you may be blind to the fact that it still impacts a large portion of the population. Remember, the first Android phones used to by like Blackberries, with keyboards, so your S4 is an Apple *impacted* phone.

NFC has been around for a while, Samsung has been pushing it but with no traction. But now even banks are on board with Apple Pay (yes... it's stupid but it's another example of "impact").

As we seen time and time again, it's not about who gets there first, it's about who gets there best (or at least looks like they are best).

Again...people already have big phones (S4 is a 5 inch screen) and the Note is already into its 4th generation.  People have learned to live with larger screen phones without a need for upgrading anything.

Yes, but now that Apple is there, you'll actually see stuff like "big phone pocket shorts" or "ps9's big phone manties" at Target.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I understand that when it comes to phones, *you* are about value, choice and function (as am I)... but that's not the impact crowd. So while what Apple does may not affect you, you may be blind to the fact that it still impacts a large portion of the population. Remember, the first Android phones used to by like Blackberries, with keyboards, so your S4 is an Apple *impacted* phone.

But that's the point.  People who get Androids are generally more about value and function while Iphone buyers are more about keeping something that they already know.  People with Iphone are reluctant to change...and thus they would keep with what they already have. 

Personally, I would never go back to an iOS because it's just too simple for me.  I don't need rows and rows of icons, I have a combination of widgets and icons that work for me fantastically.  I know iOS 8 has widget but it's not the same.

NFC has been around for awhile but no one has pushed it as a payment option.  Google Wallet has been around for awhile but not really usable.  So, if Apple Pay becomes a thing, pretty sure Android can come up with something similar right away.  As for me, paying with my mobile device seems like an extra step.  I have a credit card...it's much more portable than my phone.  Putting the credit card on my phone and then using my phone to pay seems silly to me.  But hey you never know.

You may be right and Apple will revolutionize the world again...but I think it will just be another Siri. 

 

[socal78]

Hi, guys. In all my years on TI, I have never visited this thread and haven't read a single post in it. Just chiming in to say yesterday afternoon I went to the Irvine Costco and got the Galaxy S5 in yummy gold. Also needed a place to vent on how hard their service sucked. Only lady had to wait 4 bloody hours to get her transaction completed. I got off easy with a 2+ hour processing time to return the S5 originally purchased for me in white, to exchange it for gold. Of course, going to Costco is a bad idea on the weekends anytime, but they had only three people working there. One of the guys- it was his very first day on the job so I guess management thought throwing him to the wolves was a good idea (it's not). The other two had no clue what they were doing either and were very rude! The Tustin Costco has much better, more efficient service when it comes to their phones! We bought there as well. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Hi, guys. In all my years on TI, I have never visited this thread and haven't read a single post in it. Just chiming in to say yesterday afternoon I went to the Irvine Costco and got the Galaxy S5 in yummy gold. Also needed a place to vent on how hard their service sucked. Only lady had to wait 4 bloody hours to get her transaction completed. I got off easy with a 2+ hour processing time to return the S5 originally purchased for me in white, to exchange it for gold. Of course, going to Costco is a bad idea on the weekends anytime, but they had only three people working there. One of the guys- it was his very first day on the job so I guess management thought throwing him to the wolves was a good idea (it's not). The other two had no clue what they were doing either and were very rude! The Tustin Costco has much better, more efficient service when it comes to their phones! We bought there as well.

My Best Buy experience was worse.  I had pre-order the phone on their website and waited for hours for them to activate the phone.  TBF, this was during Christmas time but still ridiculous.

I ordered a phone once from Amazon and it was insanely easy to activate. 

 

[paperboyNC]

Hi, guys. In all my years on TI, I have never visited this thread and haven't read a single post in it. Just chiming in to say yesterday afternoon I went to the Irvine Costco and got the Galaxy S5 in yummy gold. Also needed a place to vent on how hard their service sucked. Only lady had to wait 4 bloody hours to get her transaction completed. I got off easy with a 2+ hour processing time to return the S5 originally purchased for me in white, to exchange it for gold. Of course, going to Costco is a bad idea on the weekends anytime, but they had only three people working there. One of the guys- it was his very first day on the job so I guess management thought throwing him to the wolves was a good idea (it's not). The other two had no clue what they were doing either and were very rude! The Tustin Costco has much better, more efficient service when it comes to their phones! We bought there as well.

Got an iPhone 5S for the wife last year at Wal-mart in laguna niguel. The guy working was on his first day of cell phones. It took 2hrs (mostly waiting for the people doing stupid transactions in front of me).

 

[eyephone]

Hi, guys. In all my years on TI, I have never visited this thread and haven't read a single post in it. Just chiming in to say yesterday afternoon I went to the Irvine Costco and got the Galaxy S5 in yummy gold. Also needed a place to vent on how hard their service sucked. Only lady had to wait 4 bloody hours to get her transaction completed. I got off easy with a 2+ hour processing time to return the S5 originally purchased for me in white, to exchange it for gold. Of course, going to Costco is a bad idea on the weekends anytime, but they had only three people working there. One of the guys- it was his very first day on the job so I guess management thought throwing him to the wolves was a good idea (it's not). The other two had no clue what they were doing either and were very rude! The Tustin Costco has much better, more efficient service when it comes to their phones! We bought there as well.

Got an iPhone 5S for the wife last year at Wal-mart in laguna niguel. The guy working was on his first day of cell phones. It took 2hrs (mostly waiting for the people doing stupid transactions in front of me).

That's why I don't buy electronics/phones at Walmart.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You may be right and Apple will revolutionize the world again...

Now you're talking some sense.

but I think it will just be another Siri. 

Siri brought us Google Now and Cortana.

I think you're a bit off about the upgrade path of iPhone users. Most upgrade as soon as they can despite the upfront cost and minor changes:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/14...account-for-1-in-5-iphones-5c-growth-stagnant

More people own the 5 and 5s than the 4 and 4s.

If people didn't upgrade their iPhones so much, you wouldn't see the type of sales they see (in total, not just first weekend).

There is also that part of the population who went to Android the last 2 years because they wanted bigger screens, and now that Apple has them, there's no reason for them to really stay with Android.

The Note series has made in-roads for bigger screened phones but they are still far from the majority of phones out there. This link shows that the majority of phones, 66%, are smaller than 5", of which 87% are iPhones.
http://www.zdnet.com/analysis-of-smartphone-shipments-shows-display-size-matters-7000029356/

Now that Apple's current phones are bigger, that moves the pie... all because of one company. That's impact... and revolutionary.

And example of how Apple shifts mindsets is a relative of mine, when I got the Note 2, she laughed at me saying how ridiculously large my phone looks. Guess what's coming for her this week? Not the 6, the 6 Plus... which is even bigger than the Note 2.

The funny thing is I prefer my smaller iPhone... but may get the 4.7" because I'm hypnotized by the Apple mind control machine.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Anyone who pre-ordered Iphone 6 Plus through the AT&T website get it yet?  My delivery date got pushed back to Oct 13th to 20th. 

 

[nosuchreality]

A coworker showed up with his from ATT.  Website order on initial day

It was a regular iphone6/64.

Mine comes mid Oct.  initial impression, compared to my old 4s the regular 6 is huge.  The 6 plus must be like holding a iPad mini up to your ear

It's also thin, like half the thickness of  4s without case. The rounded bevel edgers IMHO make it uncomfortable to hold. You grip hard because it feel slick in your hand.  Needs a case.  Once I commented on it everyone was like oh yea it is

Headphone port moved to bottom.

It's also light. Feel like half the weight of the 4s although I think they weigh about the same

 

[usctrojancpa]

A coworker showed up with his from ATT.  Website order on initial day

It was a regular iphone6/64.

Mine comes mid Oct.  initial impression, compared to my old 4s the regular 6 is huge.  The 6 plus must be like holding a iPad mini up to your ear

It's also thin, like half the thickness of  4s without case. The rounded bevel edgers IMHO make it uncomfortable to hold. You grip hard because it feel slick in your hand.  Needs a case.  Once I commented on it everyone was like oh yea it is

Headphone port moved to bottom.

It's also light. Feel like half the weight of the 4s although I think they weigh about the same

That's BS....I ordered my phone at like 12:05am....there better be a backlog on the Iphone 6 Plus.

 

[nosuchreality]

Maybe I'm wrong on which carrier he has.  I thought he was ATT.

 

[Rice Vino]

Great time to buy a 5s! Picked one up in good shape for $275 on eBay. These were $450 two week ago. Guessing the temporary surge of tradeups killing market. The 6 isn't twice as good as 5s 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It's larger and thinner... but now it also bends:
http://www.macrumors.com/2014/09/23/iphone-6-plus-bending-pockets/

 

[eyephone]

Great time to buy a 5s! Picked one up in good shape for $275 on eBay. These were $450 two week ago. Guessing the temporary surge of tradeups killing market. The 6 isn't twice as good as 5s 

5s a good deal, if you wait longer the deal might be better.  It's all about the 6 plus - as you might get the random comment #wowthatsHUGE 

 

[Rice Vino]

Great time to buy a 5s! Picked one up in good shape for $275 on eBay. These were $450 two week ago. Guessing the temporary surge of tradeups killing market. The 6 isn't twice as good as 5s 

5s a good deal, if you wait longer the deal might be better.  It's all about the 6 plus - as you might get the random comment #wowthatsHUGE 

I actually think this is a temporary price drop based on inventory surge. Once the market absorbs the 6 trade ups and returns to regular level, prices will normalize.

6+ camera and battery will be on regular size 6s next year. I don't buy subsidized phones - save tons more per month - so true cost baked in. Also much of what I was waiting for in iPhone has been addressed in iOS8 (buggy as it might be).