I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
As of 9am PST I am 100% in equities.



My base case assumption is some high powered government offical will say something wellmeaning and stupid next week and the market will overreact and I'l be able to dump this on a trade.



I think the S&P was at 768 when I bought it.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235175326][quote author="morekaos" date=1235171546][quote author="Trooper" date=1235166661]I didn't have time to post before I headed off to work yesterday....but I have to tell you. The first thing I did when I woke up around 3:00 in the afternoon, was click on the TV to see what the market closed at.



I simply HAD to see if Morekaos lost his bet with BV ! (No kidding, it was my first lucid thought after I woke up.....) sad, but true. :P



I lurk on this thread and *wish* I could figure out what the heck you guys are saying.</blockquote>


LOL, that is a bit sad Troop. Suffice it to say I lost, but fear not, it wasn't the first and won't be the last time that happens. In 25 years in this biz I still get paid, not for being right 100% of the time but being right most of the time. Ooops. I'm glad this thread inspired alot of interest.</blockquote>


It was just a friendly guesstimate, nobody can really predict things, but its fun to try. But yes it is quite interesting to see others are keeping tabs.



You nailed it Morekaos, to do well in the market you just have to be right 51% of the time and anything higher s gravy. I pay attention to all your posts and value your opinions on the market because I know you have been right often. Now let's make some money!!!



BTW, what do you do? I'm assuming trade equities or something related. If you don't mind me asking.</blockquote>


Thanks BV. Believe it or not, as some know here, I am a long time stock broker.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235186554][quote author="Oscar" date=1235186296][quote author="skek" date=1235185929]Agree, BV. I think the baby boomers are from here on out a net seller of investments and real estate. That is a serious headwind against any long term rally in either sector.



They are going to be a net consumer of medical services. Hmmmm...</blockquote>
Must be time to nationalize healthcare. :smirk:</blockquote>


Wouldn't that be something. I think healthcare will be ok as long as they don't screw up, which I don't see them doing so. They have been eating quite well over the past decade or so. Companies like JNJ, AMGN etc have stable cash flow and rich in capital. Management for these companies is fantastic as well, so they will forsee this coming. But there will be plenty of smaller companies that will just fail because they started late and are not well capitalized to withstand a decline in healthcare spending.</blockquote>


I actually think AMGN may be added to the DJIA when they kick out C GM and maybe AA
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1235192496][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235175326][quote author="morekaos" date=1235171546][quote author="Trooper" date=1235166661]I didn't have time to post before I headed off to work yesterday....but I have to tell you. The first thing I did when I woke up around 3:00 in the afternoon, was click on the TV to see what the market closed at.



I simply HAD to see if Morekaos lost his bet with BV ! (No kidding, it was my first lucid thought after I woke up.....) sad, but true. :P



I lurk on this thread and *wish* I could figure out what the heck you guys are saying.</blockquote>


LOL, that is a bit sad Troop. Suffice it to say I lost, but fear not, it wasn't the first and won't be the last time that happens. In 25 years in this biz I still get paid, not for being right 100% of the time but being right most of the time. Ooops. I'm glad this thread inspired alot of interest.</blockquote>


It was just a friendly guesstimate, nobody can really predict things, but its fun to try. But yes it is quite interesting to see others are keeping tabs.



You nailed it Morekaos, to do well in the market you just have to be right 51% of the time and anything higher s gravy. I pay attention to all your posts and value your opinions on the market because I know you have been right often. Now let's make some money!!!



BTW, what do you do? I'm assuming trade equities or something related. If you don't mind me asking.</blockquote>


Thanks BV. Believe it or not, as some know here, I am a long time stock broker.</blockquote>


Cool! In all seriousness though, how do I get a job?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1235187026]I have a real question. This is not an argument or in any way meant to be antagonistic. It is a real question that I have when I hear financial folks speaking thusly.



[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1234872996] Since the average investor is currently 33% cash on average (according to UBS research), there is more cash than usual sitting idle (just not as much as there used to be).

</blockquote>


During selloffs, the folks on financial tv speak of people or institutions going to cash and having more cash than usual on the sidelines. They talk about all the cash waiting on the sidelines.





Well, if a person or mutual fund or whatever sells $10,000 worth of equities and converts it to cash, doesn't someone else have to convert cash to equities in order to buy the $10,000 worth of equities that the other party sold? How can there be more cash than usual? For every seller there is a buyer. And in the same amounts.



Am I making sense? Do you know what I mean?</blockquote>


Think about it this way. The market is not the only source of cash. To the extent that you have income, dividends, amortization, etc. and do not invest those funds you are increasing your cash balance. Another way of thinking of it is if you have 10% cash/90% equities and the stock market falls by 50%, you now have a 20% cash position! So in the first sense cash balances are actually increasing in amount, while in the second they are increasing in %.



Now the question is, what is the total amount of cash in which UBS is basing that 33%...
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1235192651][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235186554][quote author="Oscar" date=1235186296][quote author="skek" date=1235185929]Agree, BV. I think the baby boomers are from here on out a net seller of investments and real estate. That is a serious headwind against any long term rally in either sector.



They are going to be a net consumer of medical services. Hmmmm...</blockquote>
Must be time to nationalize healthcare. :smirk:</blockquote>


Wouldn't that be something. I think healthcare will be ok as long as they don't screw up, which I don't see them doing so. They have been eating quite well over the past decade or so. Companies like JNJ, AMGN etc have stable cash flow and rich in capital. Management for these companies is fantastic as well, so they will forsee this coming. But there will be plenty of smaller companies that will just fail because they started late and are not well capitalized to withstand a decline in healthcare spending.</blockquote>


I actually think AMGN may be added to the DJIA when they kick out C GM and maybe AA</blockquote>


I believe your thinking is correct.

Replacements? AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, GSK, ORCL, DNA, PM, PEP, ...list can go on.



If I had to take a guess? GOOG, CSCO and AMGN go in. If not CSCO, AAPL.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235199461][quote author="morekaos" date=1235192651][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235186554][quote author="Oscar" date=1235186296][quote author="skek" date=1235185929]Agree, BV. I think the baby boomers are from here on out a net seller of investments and real estate. That is a serious headwind against any long term rally in either sector.



They are going to be a net consumer of medical services. Hmmmm...</blockquote>
Must be time to nationalize healthcare. :smirk:</blockquote>


Wouldn't that be something. I think healthcare will be ok as long as they don't screw up, which I don't see them doing so. They have been eating quite well over the past decade or so. Companies like JNJ, AMGN etc have stable cash flow and rich in capital. Management for these companies is fantastic as well, so they will forsee this coming. But there will be plenty of smaller companies that will just fail because they started late and are not well capitalized to withstand a decline in healthcare spending.</blockquote>


I actually think AMGN may be added to the DJIA when they kick out C GM and maybe AA</blockquote>


I believe your thinking is correct.

Replacements? AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, GSK, ORCL, DNA, PM, PEP, ...list can go on.



If I had to take a guess? GOOG, CSCO and AMGN go in. If not CSCO, AAPL.</blockquote>


I think they may want to replace some like to like so they may want to bring back HON, but I like PEP, DNA and CSCO
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235199042][quote author="morekaos" date=1235192496][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235175326][quote author="morekaos" date=1235171546][quote author="Trooper" date=1235166661]I didn't have time to post before I headed off to work yesterday....but I have to tell you. The first thing I did when I woke up around 3:00 in the afternoon, was click on the TV to see what the market closed at.



I simply HAD to see if Morekaos lost his bet with BV ! (No kidding, it was my first lucid thought after I woke up.....) sad, but true. :P



I lurk on this thread and *wish* I could figure out what the heck you guys are saying.</blockquote>


LOL, that is a bit sad Troop. Suffice it to say I lost, but fear not, it wasn't the first and won't be the last time that happens. In 25 years in this biz I still get paid, not for being right 100% of the time but being right most of the time. Ooops. I'm glad this thread inspired alot of interest.</blockquote>


It was just a friendly guesstimate, nobody can really predict things, but its fun to try. But yes it is quite interesting to see others are keeping tabs.



You nailed it Morekaos, to do well in the market you just have to be right 51% of the time and anything higher s gravy. I pay attention to all your posts and value your opinions on the market because I know you have been right often. Now let's make some money!!!



BTW, what do you do? I'm assuming trade equities or something related. If you don't mind me asking.</blockquote>


Thanks BV. Believe it or not, as some know here, I am a long time stock broker.</blockquote>


Cool! In all seriousness though, how do I get a job?</blockquote>


You don't want to do what I do, but if you are serious PM me and I'll get you in touch
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235642783]Markets have bottomed...well for now. Rally to 7800+.</blockquote>


Looks due for a small rally; about 822 on the S&P and about 7950 on the Dow.
 
I do not like the volume on these rallies... They are lacking enough substance to give me confidence that there is something behind it.
 
[quote author="ukyo116" date=1235690739]I do not like the volume on these rallies... They are lacking enough substance to give me confidence that there is something behind it.</blockquote>


You don't need substance. When awgee and I talk about a rally, we mean it's just a rally. Then we head back down to test new lows (of course all subject to new economic data).

Market can't go down forever, it went down from 9k to 8K, paused for a bit, then went from 8K to 7K. Thats huge, and at some point you'll have a rally.



But I agree with you, there is no substance and because of that it's a temporary rally.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1235691739]

You don't need substance. When awgee and I talk about a rally, we mean it's just a rally. Then we head back down to test new lows (of course all subject to new economic data).

Market can't go down forever, it went down from 9k to 8K, paused for a bit, then went from 8K to 7K. Thats huge, and at some point you'll have a rally.



But I agree with you, there is no substance and because of that it's a temporary rally.</blockquote>


Maybe the only good thing is that the USD to JPY ratio is starting to trend back to normal. We are almost back to 1:100. Also, we have a nice steep yield curve that has held very consistently for the past month.
 
Substance would be earnings. Earnings suck and will be getting worse, but that does not mean there will not be bear market rallys. Bear market rallys can be huge and intense. From my reading, bear market rallys have a habit of sucking everyone in and making folks think the bear market is over, and just when everyone is in again ... <strong>BAM!</strong>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1231457075][quote author="morekaos" date=1231283222][quote author="Trooper" date=1231258398]Moronic question:



One of my co-workers told me about FLE last week, was trading around .10 cents a share. For the heck of it, I picked up 4000 shares....just to see what would happen with it long term. I figured I'd just buy some cheap and hold onto it until the economy got better and people started to make purchases of this magnitude again. Was some bonus money I got for Xmas so it was burning a hole in my pocket anyways. ;)



So, a week after I buy it it is suddenly de-listed and is now OTC. LOL ! Jokes on me ! First of all, I have no idea what that means. Over The Counter. I have a basic understanding of what the Pink Sheets are..... but here is my moronic question of the day, and for once it's not going to be PANDA asking: (love u panda !)



Since it's now de-listed and no longer being traded on the NYSE, what happened to it? Did my $$ just go kaput ? (Rrrrrrr.....risk, reward, risk, reward......) My ETrade account is reflecting a loss of the 400 bucks now....so I think it just went up in smoke, no?



'Splain please.</blockquote>


Scary Troop, one of my good friends is the CFO of FLE. He lives just a few hundred yards from that house near the Lagoon I looked at the other day. They have not declared BK yet. There may be some hope. I hope so for his sake and yours.</blockquote>


The new symbol may be trying to tell you something "FLEE"!!!</blockquote>


Sorry Troop, sometimes when we swing for the fences we can strike out



<a href="http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2009/03/10/fleetwood-files-for-bankruptcy/9723/">Fleetwood files chapter 11</a>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1228435609]There, I am putting it out there with a GENERAL market call. Fire away!!!</blockquote>


Bear market rally, a.k.a. suckers rally. We'll be back lower shortly, and below 6000 no problem.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1236941398][quote author="morekaos" date=1228435609]There, I am putting it out there with a GENERAL market call. Fire away!!!</blockquote>


Bear market rally, a.k.a. suckers rally. We'll be back lower shortly, and below 6000 no problem.</blockquote>
I agree with you, we'll see the Dow and S&P with a 5 handle in the fall/winter when people realize the second half recovery is nowhere to be found and 2010 earnings estimates get slashed.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1229133004][quote author="awgee" date=1228883853]Maybe the word "bubble" is over used.



Maybe the best word(s) for this is "OH, S__T!"







<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adLrsq9KMJL8&refer=home">Treasuries</a></blockquote>


I dunno, maybe the word "bubble" is being used appropriately here.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a9yyu08y5TMc&refer=home">Treasury Bubble Talk Grows as U.S. Gets Free Money </a>



Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Treasuries that pushed yields on bills below zero percent this week is adding to concerns that the $5.3 trillion market for government debt is a bubble waiting to burst.</blockquote>


The bubble may be bursting



Treasuries head for sixth week of losses

Treasury 10-year notes fell for a fourth day and headed for a sixth straight weekly loss as speculation grows that the worst of the recession may be over. The decline would be the longest weekly losing streak in almost two years. It comes as the Treasury plans to sell record amounts of securities, including $71 billion of notes and bonds next week, to finance a widening budget deficit, bank bailouts and fiscal recovery packages. Ten-year yields rose 18 basis points this week as the U.S. sold $101 billion in notes and the Federal Reserve left the size of its buyback program unchanged at $300 billion over six months. Ten-year notes had yielded between 2.46% and 3.02% from March 19, the day after the Fed said it would buy U.S. debt. The last time 10-year note prices dropped for six weeks was in the period ended June 15, 2007. Yields climbed to a five-year high that month as traders bet the economy was strong enough to keep the Fed from cutting interest rates.
 
is the treasury bubble bursting or is the movement simply correlated with what's happened in the general mkt? as we're all expecting this mkt rally to end as investors start looking past some of the mildly optimistic economic headlines and refocus on the fact the financial system is still in severe trouble, is there going to be another flight to safety?
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1241230397]is the treasury bubble bursting or is the movement simply correlated with what's happened in the general mkt? as we're all expecting this mkt rally to end as investors start looking past some of the mildly optimistic economic headlines and refocus on the fact the financial system is still in severe trouble, is there going to be another flight to safety?</blockquote>


10 year yield is 3.16%. :-)
 
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