How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

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Interest rates have already come down close to 1.5% in the past few weeks. Hopefully, that will be enough to save Irvine from further losses.

Considering that prices kept going up as interest rates drifted up early this year and that about 50% of all sales were all cash, interest rates were not the main driver for prices. As I kept saying, it's the supply side (aka resale inventory) that is the main driver of prices.
 
This is better, you can listen to same article.

Anyone seeing better than 6.5% this week? Seems like forces are swirling around that are driving long term rates back up, but the bigger question is when will the spread go back to 150 bps
 
Don't rates tend to trend down the year of an election?
We were in ZIRP for 15 years. It's a new world. And tick tock the 10 year is up. Let's home a bid emerges for MBS and the restart of the securitization machine else spreads will stay high and go even higher.
 
Turns out that whole "marry the home, date the rate" line being pushed by Realtors a year ago was incredibly bad financial planning advice.

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says​

Fannie Mae has lifted its forecast for mortgage rates from just a month ago, saying rates will stay higher for longer than they previously thought — and fewer homes will be sold than they expected in 2024.

The government-backed organization said in its February forecast that it expects the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage to drop below 6% by the end of the year to 5.9% in the fourth quarter.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.

 
What you saying is the purchasing power of your dollars has gone down further. You will now need more dollars for the same thing. I am sorry to say that inflation is about to take off again. The FED is brushing off the 2% target rate as a gradually approach to get there. This will be a guiding for higher prices for longer. Real assets with limited supplies will be the key to hold for alot longer.
 
What you saying is the purchasing power of your dollars has gone down further. You will now need more dollars for the same thing. I am sorry to say that inflation is about to take off again. The FED is brushing off the 2% target rate as a gradually approach to get there. This will be a guiding for higher prices for longer. Real assets with limited supplies will be the key to hold for alot longer.

Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....

 
Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....


That $15 Big Mac value meal is coming starting April 1st.
 
Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....

I am really done with eating fast food. Not only its as bad as it could get for my old bellies, it is really bad for my pocket.

Cheap things use to be real cheap, so you sacrifice health for saving a few bucks from eating horrible food.

Could it be a design by our good governor / government to keep us in better health to continue working to pay for the ever rising taxes. They are so nice. heh?
 
Oh, its down biggly. Dallas, houston, Austin, TX and Tampa FL. Idahoooo.

All of these covid friendly eras were up big.

Not Irvine any time soon.
San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego are also down from their respective peaks, some by double digits. These were hardly covid friendly areas, but rather tech hubs / hipster areas that have taken it in the shorts.

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@Liar Loan

What is interesting is that it seems that each MSA markets peak at different times. For example, in the last housing cycle, ATL peaked in July 2007 and LA peaked in March 2006. Some of you who are considering purchasing a home in 2024. It may very well take you 14+ years to see values come back to your purchase price. Panda's advice is to proceed with caution.

It seems that SF, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego have already peaked and making lower highs before heading lower. Look at LA and ATL. LA may still have a little more upside before it peaks while it seems Atlanta is starting to peak this year. I think the San Francisco Housing chart is similar to what the stock market will look like this year with a sudden drop and making lower highs.

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@Liar Loan

What is interesting is that it seems that each MSA markets peak at different times. For example, in the last housing cycle, ATL peaked in July 2007 and LA peaked in March 2006. Some of you who are considering purchasing a home in 2024. It may very well take you 14+ years to see values come back to your purchase price. Panda's advice is to proceed with caution.

It seems that SF, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego have already peaked and making lower highs before heading lower. Look at LA and ATL. LA may still have a little more upside before it peaks while it seems Atlanta is starting to peak this year. I think the San Francisco Housing chart is similar to what the stock market will look like this year with a sudden drop and making lower highs.

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Keep in mind, you are posting the seasonally adjusted charts. Without those seasonal adjustments, LA doesn't look like it has "a little more upside" because the peak was May 2022 and it has not yet surpassed that.

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All of these Case Shiller charts seem to tell a similar story of a double market top. Some markets have a second top nearly equal to the first (like LA, SD) and others show a second top that is already much lower than the first (SF, Seattle, Portland, and covid cities).

Atlanta is one of the few with a second top higher than the first. The Southeast seems to be a little more resilient right now.
 
The transaction in 2023 was similiar to 2008 and i think the 2024 transactions will be similar to that of 2009.
 
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