Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Lol. Give up.
How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
- Thread starter OCtoSV
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Considering that prices kept going up as interest rates drifted up early this year and that about 50% of all sales were all cash, interest rates were not the main driver for prices. As I kept saying, it's the supply side (aka resale inventory) that is the main driver of prices.
Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....
finance.yahoo.com
That $15 Big Mac value meal is coming starting April 1st.
Cheap things use to be real cheap, so you sacrifice health for saving a few bucks from eating horrible food.
Could it be a design by our good governor / government to keep us in better health to continue working to pay for the ever rising taxes. They are so nice. heh?
All of these Case Shiller charts seem to tell a similar story of a double market top. Some markets have a second top nearly equal to the first (like LA, SD) and others show a second top that is already much lower than the first (SF, Seattle, Portland, and covid cities).
Atlanta is one of the few with a second top higher than the first. The Southeast seems to be a little more resilient right now.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Considering that prices kept going up as interest rates drifted up early this year and that about 50% of all sales were all cash, interest rates were not the main driver for prices. As I kept saying, it's the supply side (aka resale inventory) that is the main driver of prices.
Anyone seeing better than 6.5% this week? Seems like forces are swirling around that are driving long term rates back up, but the bigger question is when will the spread go back to 150 bpsThis is better, you can listen to same article.
This Is What an 8% Mortgage Means For the Housing Market - Odd Lots
Mortgage rates have surged over the last couple of years. But surprisingly to some, actual home prices in the US have been resilient. This has created a historic shock to affordability, with a typical monthly payment on a home purchase soaring. But how long can this go on? Particularly as rates...omny.fm
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Don't rates tend to trend down the year of an election?
We were in ZIRP for 15 years. It's a new world. And tick tock the 10 year is up. Let's home a bid emerges for MBS and the restart of the securitization machine else spreads will stay high and go even higher.
Sadly I don't see the 30 yr budging for quite a while looking at the various CMBS-yield curve spread scenarios nicely analyzed today
https://open.substack.com/pub/calcu...d?r=1ssk0t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
https://open.substack.com/pub/calcu...d?r=1ssk0t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Turns out that whole "marry the home, date the rate" line being pushed by Realtors a year ago was incredibly bad financial planning advice.
The government-backed organization said in its February forecast that it expects the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage to drop below 6% by the end of the year to 5.9% in the fourth quarter.
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.
www.foxbusiness.com
Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says
Fannie Mae has lifted its forecast for mortgage rates from just a month ago, saying rates will stay higher for longer than they previously thought — and fewer homes will be sold than they expected in 2024.The government-backed organization said in its February forecast that it expects the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage to drop below 6% by the end of the year to 5.9% in the fourth quarter.
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.
Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says
Fannie Mae now says mortgage rates will stay above 6% through 2025, after predicting last month that the average 30-year fixed mortgage would drop below 6% by the end of this year.
www.foxbusiness.com
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So why haven't prices gone down? 
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Oh, its down biggly. Dallas, houston, Austin, TX and Tampa FL. Idahoooo.
All of these covid friendly eras were up big.
Not Irvine any time soon.
All of these covid friendly eras were up big.
Not Irvine any time soon.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So I have to bigly move to those places?
That's a huuuuuuuuuge change.
That's a huuuuuuuuuge change.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Real prices have gone down, as you well know, but the bigger fireworks are yet to come.So why haven't prices gone down?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
What you saying is the purchasing power of your dollars has gone down further. You will now need more dollars for the same thing. I am sorry to say that inflation is about to take off again. The FED is brushing off the 2% target rate as a gradually approach to get there. This will be a guiding for higher prices for longer. Real assets with limited supplies will be the key to hold for alot longer.
sgip
Well-known member
Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....
$18 Big Mac Meals? See How Much McDonald’s Signature Burger Costs in Every State
The major appeal of fast food is that it's fast and at a cheap price -- but, thanks to inflation and cost of living factors, the days of super-cheap fast food may be coming to an official end. In July...
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....
$18 Big Mac Meals? See How Much McDonald’s Signature Burger Costs in Every State
The major appeal of fast food is that it's fast and at a cheap price -- but, thanks to inflation and cost of living factors, the days of super-cheap fast food may be coming to an official end. In July...
That $15 Big Mac value meal is coming starting April 1st.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
I am really done with eating fast food. Not only its as bad as it could get for my old bellies, it is really bad for my pocket.Watching the prices of eggs and gas. Yes, I know about the higher cost of "summer blend" gas, but $5.00 per gallon has been here for about a month now, way ahead of the change over to the different gas blend. Inflation is going to rise again unfortunately. Wonder what the $15.00 Big Mac "value meal" will rise nationally to next....
$18 Big Mac Meals? See How Much McDonald’s Signature Burger Costs in Every State
The major appeal of fast food is that it's fast and at a cheap price -- but, thanks to inflation and cost of living factors, the days of super-cheap fast food may be coming to an official end. In July...
Cheap things use to be real cheap, so you sacrifice health for saving a few bucks from eating horrible food.
Could it be a design by our good governor / government to keep us in better health to continue working to pay for the ever rising taxes. They are so nice. heh?
Liar Loan
Well-known member
San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego are also down from their respective peaks, some by double digits. These were hardly covid friendly areas, but rather tech hubs / hipster areas that have taken it in the shorts.
panda
Well-known member
@Liar Loan
What is interesting is that it seems that each MSA markets peak at different times. For example, in the last housing cycle, ATL peaked in July 2007 and LA peaked in March 2006. Some of you who are considering purchasing a home in 2024. It may very well take you 14+ years to see values come back to your purchase price. Panda's advice is to proceed with caution.
It seems that SF, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego have already peaked and making lower highs before heading lower. Look at LA and ATL. LA may still have a little more upside before it peaks while it seems Atlanta is starting to peak this year. I think the San Francisco Housing chart is similar to what the stock market will look like this year with a sudden drop and making lower highs.
What is interesting is that it seems that each MSA markets peak at different times. For example, in the last housing cycle, ATL peaked in July 2007 and LA peaked in March 2006. Some of you who are considering purchasing a home in 2024. It may very well take you 14+ years to see values come back to your purchase price. Panda's advice is to proceed with caution.
It seems that SF, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and San Diego have already peaked and making lower highs before heading lower. Look at LA and ATL. LA may still have a little more upside before it peaks while it seems Atlanta is starting to peak this year. I think the San Francisco Housing chart is similar to what the stock market will look like this year with a sudden drop and making lower highs.
Last edited:
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Keep in mind, you are posting the seasonally adjusted charts. Without those seasonal adjustments, LA doesn't look like it has "a little more upside" because the peak was May 2022 and it has not yet surpassed that.
All of these Case Shiller charts seem to tell a similar story of a double market top. Some markets have a second top nearly equal to the first (like LA, SD) and others show a second top that is already much lower than the first (SF, Seattle, Portland, and covid cities).
Atlanta is one of the few with a second top higher than the first. The Southeast seems to be a little more resilient right now.
