If someone on the internet had you more convinced, boy you are in a world way far from reality. Let alone that someone being sleepy joe of fake forest.
cool story Animal in EastHood.If someone on the internet had you more convinced, boy you are in a world way far from reality. Let alone that someone being sleepy joe of fake forest.
Thank you for confirming what I assumed was the situation on the ground. Really good news for me as we plan our move to non-Irvine south OC in the next few years - bargains will abound in areas devoid of FCB demand.
What is your advice on when to buy for financed buyers?
During the last Sellers Market it was "zero contingencies, quick closing, possible rent-backs, with best and highest price" being the secret sauce to win the deal. Get your financing fully approved, not waiting for $$$ to transfer from somewhere, or any other complexities that raise more questions by sellers and their Agents. I'm sure the above points remain today as key factors, but also engaging a Buyer's Agent with strong listing Realtor relationships will also help to get the home you're aiming for. Never use a N00b Agent/Friend/Relative in this market as they will fail you more than you'd think was ever possible.
Yes, it's a "When" question. I am fond of quoting Pasteur who said "Chance favors the prepared..." The "when" happens when one is ready to take steps that may be uncomfortable, like contingency waiving. A buyer can purchase right now if they are ready to do what it takes. They can wait as well until they are comfortable making some of the decisions needed to win the deal.
While that is true, also less stable pricing but if you buy to live, it doesn’t really matter right?
Really helpful data - thanks USC. My timeline is 3 yrs out and I'll be a cash or 70%+ down buyer so I like my chances after 3 yrs of tail effects from the Feds rate hikes. I see OC in the trough of a recession or maybe just coming out of one in 2026 while AI and cloud will continue to power a robust job market in the Bay area while I pay down principal on my 15. I therefore see a good arbitrage opportunity for me to cash out up here at record highs and hit South OC at a low. Irvine will remain buffered from the job market by Chinese buyers unless a GOP WH limits foreign RE ownership then all bets are off. As George Peppard used to say on the A Team "I love it when a plan comes together".
I've always had good timing with RE purchases so I know I would be psychologically affected if I bought and prices plunged. Conversely I'd be stoked to continue my streak of good timing.
do you believe that the home sale prices in 2026 will be less than today's home sale prices?
Except that 4% rates will only occur if the Fed is in emergency cutting mode due to a recession, which I am predicting. A halving of the 10 year means double the current unemployment rate which means inventory will increase and qualified financed buyers that did not lose their jobs will be very happy they waited.
By the time this happens... Irvine starter homes will be $3m+.
whoa whoa whoa - is that what they teach in the UCLA econ dept? WHY would the Powell Fed (1st non-economist to run the Fed) cut rates for any reason but recession? Wouldn't that by definition be inflationary? If inflation declines without a corresponding rise in unemployment that means the economy can tolerate higher rates. Headline PCE may be going down due to used car prices declining but food inflation is rampant - in fact it's now embedded. Have you paid attention recently at the grocery store? I never did but do now and prices for everything but fresh meat, fish, veggies and beer (my staples) are waaay up. Bacon is $12 for a 12 oz package. Fuel also given this administration's war on fossil fuels. We will never see a $2 gallon of gas or a 4% mortgage rate the rest of this decade or maybe in our lifetimes.