are you still net short the market? The rest of your thesis played out well though spreads are widening keeping mortgae rates elevated, but I hope you reversed your equity positions.
How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
- Thread starter OCtoSV
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Why is bacon so high for ya all......... is it because California pork law? Well that is good cuz that means it will be a buck or two a pound here in a week or so like pork last week was so cheap since it can't be sold in Cali. Even so......... it WILL come down in Cali if that is your normal price due to excess supply at that price.
Head on over to Vons/Albies and grab your 50 cent items. They are stock up prices for me..... canned tomatoes, kraft m/c, boxed pasta and lots more. They have had that deal at least twice for you and for us in the last few weeks. Watch your ads.... ya all got pantries, use them (unless u don't cook and eat out but I'm a cook at home gal and it kills me when I can't just go to my pantry and grab what I need).
Need gift cards? Buy them at albies when they have gift card deals (or any other time if you need them now). 400 points ($200 in gift cards without promos) gets you a $7 meat coupon.
So for interest rates............. why should the fed lower rates? They always go to far, that's why but say they do get that "soft landing", why mess it up? If they managed to not break something they should leave them alone. Let rates just stay steady. We had MANY years of 7% mortgages and we were fine. Part of the reason real estate is good now is people think rates are near a top and will drop so they will just refinance later............ because that is mostly all they have ever known (anyone who is 60 was just graduating high school when rates topped and I would say virtually no one that age was buying a house then). We could indeed see a mortgage problem (foreclosures) in a year or two or three if rates rise a little more and go sideways as those who were so sure they could refinance find out they are stuck with their payments when the economy is sucking wind. Of course Irvine, and the OC have so many people and not much land left to build I doubt any move lower would be minimal.
Since you asked....she locked in one of my clients in at 6.50% at 0pts with no relationship discount (jumbo loan with 25% down).
The Fed is playing the long game with RE speculation and as you point out a sustained period of normalized rates will very likely lead to a steady stream of inventory over the next couple years as recent buyers panic over inability to refi lower. But there is no shortage of land in OC and no shortage of inventory even today at least compared to the Bay Area where my zip code of 40K people has 19 properties for sale, nothing under $2M.
Is the AZ heat worse this year or is that just media hype? I used to have many colleagues in Chandler and they’ve always complained about summer and needing to wait until 9pm to play in the pool.
And just think - that is 200 bps higher than my 5/1 ARM i used to buy my first house in 2003. A 40 yr bond bull market has turned into a raging bear. Caveat emptor!
https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/safeway-overcharging-for-food-bay-area-18274669.php
sgip
Well-known member
That figure is inclusive of mortgage bankers who have jumbo conduits, but their terms are not the same as if you were to go directly to a Bank or Credit Union. A Mortgage Banker might offer their best customer profile a 6.875% rate for a loan that's being sold to Chase/Wells/Citi. Go to Chase, Wells, or Citi directly for that loan and your rate would be about .125 to .25 less with additional options to see that rate reduced further.
Example: BofA ( a company I do not work for....) today has a 6.50, 6.591 APY rate for .774 in fee. Assuming .125 in rate for .50 in fee, the "zero point rate" would be around 6.75%. If you have an account with the bank you are applying with, if you move money, stocks, etc to the bank you are applying with, if your score is above 800, or put more than 20% down (in my example I used 20% down....) the rate would probably fall close to 6.50 for very minimal fees.
Moral of the story: Average rates are fine as an indication of the direction of rates. Going directly to a Bank / Credit Union for a quote will provide you for the most part with a better deal than what the average rate is proclaiming.
Source: https://www.bankofamerica.com/mortgage/mortgage-rates/
Example: BofA ( a company I do not work for....) today has a 6.50, 6.591 APY rate for .774 in fee. Assuming .125 in rate for .50 in fee, the "zero point rate" would be around 6.75%. If you have an account with the bank you are applying with, if you move money, stocks, etc to the bank you are applying with, if your score is above 800, or put more than 20% down (in my example I used 20% down....) the rate would probably fall close to 6.50 for very minimal fees.
Moral of the story: Average rates are fine as an indication of the direction of rates. Going directly to a Bank / Credit Union for a quote will provide you for the most part with a better deal than what the average rate is proclaiming.
Source: https://www.bankofamerica.com/mortgage/mortgage-rates/
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Liar Loan
Well-known member
Mortgage Rates Are Basically Back to 9-Month Highs (and for Jumbos a new cyclical high!)
For all intents and purposes, the average 30yr fixed rate at the average lender is as high as it's been since November 2022. The number itself as far as we see it is 7.10 which means most lenders are quoting 7.125% after adjusting for discount points (or just "points" for short).Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Lol........ $12 for a pound of bacon........... ya all need to learn to shop. I pay attention to grocery prices (always have) and $12 for a pound of bacon is beyond ridiculous! It's not even good for ya. Two weeks ago we had boneless skinless chicken breasts for 99 cents per pound and last week we had pork chops for 67 cents per pound (not crappy quality either). I think it was limit 10 pounds on the chicken, none on pork and they never ran out like I hoped they would so I could get rain checks. I'm running low on eggs so I had suck it up and pay 1.27 per dozen for cage free today minus senior discount. I usually wait till they go on sale for a buck (or less per dozen and get a few dozen).
Why is bacon so high for ya all......... is it because California pork law? Well that is good cuz that means it will be a buck or two a pound here in a week or so like pork last week was so cheap since it can't be sold in Cali. Even so......... it WILL come down in Cali if that is your normal price due to excess supply at that price.
Head on over to Vons/Albies and grab your 50 cent items. They are stock up prices for me..... canned tomatoes, kraft m/c, boxed pasta and lots more. They have had that deal at least twice for you and for us in the last few weeks. Watch your ads.... ya all got pantries, use them (unless u don't cook and eat out but I'm a cook at home gal and it kills me when I can't just go to my pantry and grab what I need).
Need gift cards? Buy them at albies when they have gift card deals (or any other time if you need them now). 400 points ($200 in gift cards without promos) gets you a $7 meat coupon.
So for interest rates............. why should the fed lower rates? They always go to far, that's why but say they do get that "soft landing", why mess it up? If they managed to not break something they should leave them alone. Let rates just stay steady. We had MANY years of 7% mortgages and we were fine. Part of the reason real estate is good now is people think rates are near a top and will drop so they will just refinance later............ because that is mostly all they have ever known (anyone who is 60 was just graduating high school when rates topped and I would say virtually no one that age was buying a house then). We could indeed see a mortgage problem (foreclosures) in a year or two or three if rates rise a little more and go sideways as those who were so sure they could refinance find out they are stuck with their payments when the economy is sucking wind. Of course Irvine, and the OC have so many people and not much land left to build I doubt any move lower would be minimal.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Since you asked....she locked in one of my clients in at 6.50% at 0pts with no relationship discount (jumbo loan with 25% down).
Agree on almost all counts R2D. Up here in the Bay Area we get raped on all consumer pricing due to the extremely high avg income - avg salary in the city of San Jose is $180K. This was “gently” studied in a recent article in the SJ Merc News on inflation so I imagine the $12 bacon is more like $7 or $8 in OC. I bought the bacon to make a bacon wrapped pesto stuffed pork tenderloin - great recipe. We’re big cook at home people and go out for things we can’t easily make like quality sushi.
The Fed is playing the long game with RE speculation and as you point out a sustained period of normalized rates will very likely lead to a steady stream of inventory over the next couple years as recent buyers panic over inability to refi lower. But there is no shortage of land in OC and no shortage of inventory even today at least compared to the Bay Area where my zip code of 40K people has 19 properties for sale, nothing under $2M.
Is the AZ heat worse this year or is that just media hype? I used to have many colleagues in Chandler and they’ve always complained about summer and needing to wait until 9pm to play in the pool.
Thanks USC. That’s up 100 bps in the last month (wow) and she’s only 50 bps below Bankrate - losing her magic.
And just think - that is 200 bps higher than my 5/1 ARM i used to buy my first house in 2003. A 40 yr bond bull market has turned into a raging bear. Caveat emptor!
Timely article on how the food inflation in the Bay area
https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/safeway-overcharging-for-food-bay-area-18274669.php
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Identical arguments were made in 2005-06. Yet OC population has been declining and is the lowest it's been in eight years!! That's what happens when you have young adults moving either inland/out of state and not having many children, with only a rapidly aging cohort left behind.
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CA losing population and OC will probably lead the pack given the cost of living there relative to median wages.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So population growth is the new Baba Yaga? 
Liar Loan
Well-known member
I suppose if enough Chinese buy homes and keep them empty OC has nothing to worry about.So population growth is the new Baba Yaga?
That and other $$$ institutions, wonder how active they are in OC
Liar Loan
Well-known member
The good news for California is that the Asian buyer is still going strong.
www.ocregister.com
California’s share has fallen slightly since 2018, though it remained the favorite destination for buyers from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan — who made up some 13% of all foreign buyers, more than double the share a year earlier.
Foreigners buy fewest US homes since 2009
Purchases slid to the lowest levels since the Great Recession as a strong dollar makes prices too steep for many.
www.ocregister.com
California’s share has fallen slightly since 2018, though it remained the favorite destination for buyers from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan — who made up some 13% of all foreign buyers, more than double the share a year earlier.
