irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
What was the original reasons? Price drop from a major run up is hardly a loss.
Housing Analysis
- Thread starter eyephone
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What was the original reasons? Price drop from a major run up is hardly a loss.
With inventory shooting up, demand going down buyers have no reason to rush to buy unless they find their perfect home for a reasonable price. Unfortunately inventory is still a bit low and prices are still high, thus buyers are letting the market correct hence the change in housing trends. This "buy something because you can afford it and like it" and "why wait" sounds like realtor shills.
BTW im surprised you wouldnt wait 2 years to save 20%. In irvine 20% on a house could easily be 250-300K difference.
The only value of this forum is the conversation. If you delete parts of the conversation, the overall usefulness decreases.
Your first sentence states the tax changes may affect prices in 2019, then the very next sentence say its already priced in. Also
I am not sure how you can make a claim that the tax changes are already priced in. How do you know such things? What evidence would give you reasons to make such claims?
BTW I am not making an argument the the tax changes will or will not have an affect, just simply wishing you to clarify. However if I were to make a guess, I would argue that tax changes WILL have an affect and it is yet to come as most people are not keen on tax changes as most of us on this forum.
We were in the market during the 08-12 drop and there was no turn-key, good location 3CWG home that fell 40%, 30%, or even 20%. The stuff that did drop were either attached condos, or homes in the wrong location (ahem Columbus Square).
And again, let?s not confuse people here... is there a 20% drop coming? Very doubtful. I want to see someone post that and own it.... eyephone?
Even all the realty sites forecast another 5% rise but I get why they would say that.
A year ago, mortgage interest rates were just below 4%. Now, they hover around 4.5%. The 0.5% increase in mortgage rates made houses about 5% more expensive on a monthly payment basis. If you add in the 5% home price appreciation, and on a monthly payment basis, today's buyers are paying 10% more for the same house than they did a year ago.
Speaking of realtor shills, am I the only one who has an issue with realtors saying "congrats to both the buyer and the seller" at the end of escrow ?
I know almost every realtor says it but it's just so ironic to me. The only person who should be congratulated at the end of escrow is the realtor who came out a for sure winner.
I am not saying a win/win scenario cannot happen for buyer & seller, but it would take time to tell. Often times, its a winner/loser situation.
Lets get this straight. I really dislike it when people make strawman arguments. I never stated I expect 20% drop. Im simply challenging what you stated. You specifically said that even if it dropped 20% in 2 years you wouldnt wait to buy a house. Anyone can scroll up and see that is what you wrote. And yes, 20% drop on a 1.25M-1.5M dollar house would be 250-300K. Simple math.
And so what about people who say "You're using a strawman arugment" when they are they are the ones who started it?
Obviously anyone would want to save $250-300k but that scenario is untenable. You can't present me with a question when you don't agree that the situation will arise. Go re-read what I said, I didn't say that you said prices will drop 20%, what I said is according to how much you are saying I could save, this is what would have to happen. And then asked if you agreed that would.
Now if you're saying that it won't (don't want to put words in your keyboard), then how can you ask me that question? Who really strawman'd who here? Also, at the $1.5m range, no one is waiting if they can afford that price... 20% is negligible once you get into that high-end type pricing so you actually doubled up on the straw.
Here's a better answer to your question (which I keep repeating):
Knowing what I do now, I would not wait. I did that years ago and it didn't work out because it's impossible to guess timing accurately, especially on product that is in high demand. Just look at affordability and long term occupancy... if you can't do either of those, then obviously you have no choice but to wait.
Really? Someone sells their home at the price they wanted and someone buys a home for how much they could afford isn't win/win?
I understand many of you might be anti-realtor (as I can be too) but I think more often than not, real estate transactions are beneficial to both parties.
So how do you determine a winner? Wait until that buyer sells and then compare it with what the seller bought next with the proceeds (real estate or otherwise)? Seems like that would be an ongoing game and it would be hard to trace/track/keep score.
I?m with IHO on this one very specific issue. Not because I like him or bc he?s ?popular? in these parts though
Please go google what a strawman argument is and get back to me.
You are the one that brought up the scenario, i didnt present anything to you. You specifically wrote that even with a 20% drop in 2 years (which would easily be 250-300K), you would wait to buy. I simply challenged you on that statement (that YOU made) as it made no sense to not wait to buy if you knew a 20% drop was coming.
Again, YOU brought up the scenario and made that statement, not me. Im simply just challenging you on a statement that YOU specifically made.
You really think 300K is negligible? Again making stupid statements. Seriously do you know what a strawman argument is?
You are right it is impossible to time accurately. However the stats I have shown you clearly show inventory is rising and demand is falling. Thus my argument, as it has always been, is that no buyer needs to rush to buy right now. Time is likely on their side now.
By your definition, buyers who caught falling knives during the great recession are considered winners too.
I am anti empty blanket statements which are common practice in real estate.
You can call me anti-realtor. I do not think that?s accurate since I know and worked with realtors who are both competent professionals and decent human beings.But I am anti a lot of things the real estate profession has failed to correct or regulate.
I am anti the lack of required transparency. I am anti the ethical conflicts of dual agency. I am anti the extreme ease of acquiring a RE license.
One can be legally allowed to advise people, as a qualified professional, on making the biggest financial investment of their lives with no educational degree, no apprenticeship, no financial training. All one has to do is pass an extremely easy exam.
No one is angry. Im actually laughing out loud because of how lame your response is.
But in all honesty, I didnt make anything "indefensible". You did it yourself LOL. However Im glad you realize how ridiculous your post is by admitting its indefensible.
Also I never claimed that people are not buying 1.5M, rather hoping for 1.2M later. Another strawman argument made by you. You specifically stated 300K is negligible at this price point, which is what I challenged.
seriously tho, go google strawman argument. You need to learn it. You are king of this.
What was the original reasons? Price drop from a major run up is hardly a loss.
irvinehomeowner said:
With inventory shooting up, demand going down buyers have no reason to rush to buy unless they find their perfect home for a reasonable price. Unfortunately inventory is still a bit low and prices are still high, thus buyers are letting the market correct hence the change in housing trends. This "buy something because you can afford it and like it" and "why wait" sounds like realtor shills.
BTW im surprised you wouldnt wait 2 years to save 20%. In irvine 20% on a house could easily be 250-300K difference.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
The only value of this forum is the conversation. If you delete parts of the conversation, the overall usefulness decreases.
Not sure how that is related to your first sentence... when I play basketball I do not take my ball and go home if my opponent does not feel I am sexy.
zubs said:
Your first sentence states the tax changes may affect prices in 2019, then the very next sentence say its already priced in. Also
I am not sure how you can make a claim that the tax changes are already priced in. How do you know such things? What evidence would give you reasons to make such claims?
BTW I am not making an argument the the tax changes will or will not have an affect, just simply wishing you to clarify. However if I were to make a guess, I would argue that tax changes WILL have an affect and it is yet to come as most people are not keen on tax changes as most of us on this forum.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I?m not a realtor, I?m just being realistic.meccos12 said:
Because realistically, that drop won?t happen on the good homes.
We were in the market during the 08-12 drop and there was no turn-key, good location 3CWG home that fell 40%, 30%, or even 20%. The stuff that did drop were either attached condos, or homes in the wrong location (ahem Columbus Square).
And again, let?s not confuse people here... is there a 20% drop coming? Very doubtful. I want to see someone post that and own it.... eyephone?
Even all the realty sites forecast another 5% rise but I get why they would say that.
Agree that affordability is an issue.Compressed-Village said:
A year ago, mortgage interest rates were just below 4%. Now, they hover around 4.5%. The 0.5% increase in mortgage rates made houses about 5% more expensive on a monthly payment basis. If you add in the 5% home price appreciation, and on a monthly payment basis, today's buyers are paying 10% more for the same house than they did a year ago.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
@Mecco:
I did this exercise 10 years ago on IHB.
So you?re saying a 20% drop in Irvine can save you $250-300k?
What that means is all the homes that have sold in the last 6 months for $1.5m will eventually sell for $1.2m? When will this happen? And it can?t be just one home or some short sale, it has to be a reasonable number of homes or else you might as well just advise people to buy lLotto tickets.
This was just like when everyone was saying Irvine prices will drop over 50% back in 08, which was mid-90s pricing. Despite Mety?s contention that 2016 is the 20% difference year, I think 2014 might be safer (let?s assume 5% rise every year) for a broad range of products.
Do you think prices will drop to 2014 levels?
I did this exercise 10 years ago on IHB.
So you?re saying a 20% drop in Irvine can save you $250-300k?
What that means is all the homes that have sold in the last 6 months for $1.5m will eventually sell for $1.2m? When will this happen? And it can?t be just one home or some short sale, it has to be a reasonable number of homes or else you might as well just advise people to buy lLotto tickets.
This was just like when everyone was saying Irvine prices will drop over 50% back in 08, which was mid-90s pricing. Despite Mety?s contention that 2016 is the 20% difference year, I think 2014 might be safer (let?s assume 5% rise every year) for a broad range of products.
Do you think prices will drop to 2014 levels?
I agree. This "just do it" type of advice really sound like realtor shills.meccos12 said:
Speaking of realtor shills, am I the only one who has an issue with realtors saying "congrats to both the buyer and the seller" at the end of escrow ?
I know almost every realtor says it but it's just so ironic to me. The only person who should be congratulated at the end of escrow is the realtor who came out a for sure winner.
I am not saying a win/win scenario cannot happen for buyer & seller, but it would take time to tell. Often times, its a winner/loser situation.
irvinehomeowner said:
Lets get this straight. I really dislike it when people make strawman arguments. I never stated I expect 20% drop. Im simply challenging what you stated. You specifically said that even if it dropped 20% in 2 years you wouldnt wait to buy a house. Anyone can scroll up and see that is what you wrote. And yes, 20% drop on a 1.25M-1.5M dollar house would be 250-300K. Simple math.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
And so what about people who say "You're using a strawman arugment" when they are they are the ones who started it?
Obviously anyone would want to save $250-300k but that scenario is untenable. You can't present me with a question when you don't agree that the situation will arise. Go re-read what I said, I didn't say that you said prices will drop 20%, what I said is according to how much you are saying I could save, this is what would have to happen. And then asked if you agreed that would.
Now if you're saying that it won't (don't want to put words in your keyboard), then how can you ask me that question? Who really strawman'd who here? Also, at the $1.5m range, no one is waiting if they can afford that price... 20% is negligible once you get into that high-end type pricing so you actually doubled up on the straw.
Here's a better answer to your question (which I keep repeating):
Knowing what I do now, I would not wait. I did that years ago and it didn't work out because it's impossible to guess timing accurately, especially on product that is in high demand. Just look at affordability and long term occupancy... if you can't do either of those, then obviously you have no choice but to wait.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Really? Someone sells their home at the price they wanted and someone buys a home for how much they could afford isn't win/win?
I understand many of you might be anti-realtor (as I can be too) but I think more often than not, real estate transactions are beneficial to both parties.
Kenkoko said:
So how do you determine a winner? Wait until that buyer sells and then compare it with what the seller bought next with the proceeds (real estate or otherwise)? Seems like that would be an ongoing game and it would be hard to trace/track/keep score.
I?m with IHO on this one very specific issue. Not because I like him or bc he?s ?popular? in these parts though
irvinehomeowner said:
Please go google what a strawman argument is and get back to me.
irvinehomeowner said:
You are the one that brought up the scenario, i didnt present anything to you. You specifically wrote that even with a 20% drop in 2 years (which would easily be 250-300K), you would wait to buy. I simply challenged you on that statement (that YOU made) as it made no sense to not wait to buy if you knew a 20% drop was coming.
irvinehomeowner said:
Again, YOU brought up the scenario and made that statement, not me. Im simply just challenging you on a statement that YOU specifically made.
You really think 300K is negligible? Again making stupid statements. Seriously do you know what a strawman argument is?
irvinehomeowner said:
You are right it is impossible to time accurately. However the stats I have shown you clearly show inventory is rising and demand is falling. Thus my argument, as it has always been, is that no buyer needs to rush to buy right now. Time is likely on their side now.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So angry.
Why do people who claim someone is using a strawman also say that the other person doesn?t know what a strawman is?
You?re the one who placed my 20% statement in an indefensible position by bringing up the $250-300k scenario.
Maybe you should scroll up because you are putting my 20% into a vacuum. I also said other reasons why I wouldn?t do it based on many other factors than the mere money difference.
And what if my 20% is $180k vs $300k? Does it make it more believable?
As for people buying at $1.5m now rather than hope for $1.2m later, do you think that doesn?t happen? That?s a question not a strawman.
Why do people who claim someone is using a strawman also say that the other person doesn?t know what a strawman is?
You?re the one who placed my 20% statement in an indefensible position by bringing up the $250-300k scenario.
Maybe you should scroll up because you are putting my 20% into a vacuum. I also said other reasons why I wouldn?t do it based on many other factors than the mere money difference.
And what if my 20% is $180k vs $300k? Does it make it more believable?
As for people buying at $1.5m now rather than hope for $1.2m later, do you think that doesn?t happen? That?s a question not a strawman.
irvinehomeowner said:
By your definition, buyers who caught falling knives during the great recession are considered winners too.
I am anti empty blanket statements which are common practice in real estate.
You can call me anti-realtor. I do not think that?s accurate since I know and worked with realtors who are both competent professionals and decent human beings.But I am anti a lot of things the real estate profession has failed to correct or regulate.
I am anti the lack of required transparency. I am anti the ethical conflicts of dual agency. I am anti the extreme ease of acquiring a RE license.
One can be legally allowed to advise people, as a qualified professional, on making the biggest financial investment of their lives with no educational degree, no apprenticeship, no financial training. All one has to do is pass an extremely easy exam.
irvinehomeowner said:
No one is angry. Im actually laughing out loud because of how lame your response is.
But in all honesty, I didnt make anything "indefensible". You did it yourself LOL. However Im glad you realize how ridiculous your post is by admitting its indefensible.
Also I never claimed that people are not buying 1.5M, rather hoping for 1.2M later. Another strawman argument made by you. You specifically stated 300K is negligible at this price point, which is what I challenged.
seriously tho, go google strawman argument. You need to learn it. You are king of this.