Mety said:
@IHO,
15-20% increase which means 20% is the maximum percentile like you've done on your Zillow analysis. Like I said, my focus was on sub-1mil as that's the most demanding price range. So based on your homework, we are actually talking about the same thing.
Not really.
I'm talking about the Irvine market overall, which I think is farther from 20% and closer to 10%. You seem to be concentrating on new in the sub $1mil range which is why I asked you to clarify. If you look at your post, it was more like a blanket statement and I don't think that holds true. That's also why I said there is a flaw in using singular data points to back up your assertions.
The difference is you are saying "don't wait" and some others are saying "wait." I didn't really say "wait." I was just backing them up since you were attacking hard on those who didn't share the same idea as yours.
Not sure how I was "attacking hard", I was even asking anyone what the price difference was and if it was reasonable to wait. And remember, I only say "don't wait" if you can afford it and if you are in for the long term, otherwise, you need to take all other things into account.
The majority of the people here seem to like you and support you for some reason so I was simply helping the minority.
I think you are having a hard time accepting this which is why you take the tone you do in your posts.
I've been here a long time, I back up what I say with data and logic... and I don't delete my posts. I don't run from a challenge, I'll admit when I'm wrong, I'm also as sexy as qwerstudly except for my calves... and my 3-pointer is consistent enough to get me by in most pick up basketball games.
Now don't get me wrong, I've also been the minority voice here too... I actually started that way going against many members who are no longer here. But as long as you back up what you say, even when you end up being incorrect, that still contributes to this forum.
My point, for awhile, has been now is the good time to sell to enjoy the MAX ROI. But I think that's kind of too late also. You might not be able to sell it as fast as like the last year or beginning of this year.
Like your 20% statement, that depends on many factors. Maybe if you bought in Delano in 2016, or you bought Las Ventanas in 2011... or you bought anything in Irvine before 2013. But then you have another problem, where do you move to?
But I do agree with you that if the buyer finds the perfect home within the budget, then go for it. I always said the timing is more important on selling than buying since buying is done after you get qualified with the lender so the risk is less. Although I am seeing more and more mortgage lender deals with less downpayment and whatnot these days.
We are on the same page here.
eyephone said it would be smart to wait until Jan-May 2019 to buy which I think is a smart choice also since the price is not moving up much now unless you find the perfect unicorn.
But isn't this the case every season? Typically winter is the slowest time, but you also have to factor in that less inventory is out there so while prices might be lower, there may be more competition from other buyers. I just don't see this "advice" as anything ground-breaking or new.
Now if there is something that eyephone has to say that makes this winter season different from the last 5, that's what I want to hear. I can tell you that based on the last few decades, the cycles have kind of been like this: down 89-96, up 97-06, down 07-12... so what is next, up 13-18 and then down 18-??. No on can answer that with 100% accuracy.
