Housing Analysis

[Kenkoko]

What are you guys doing still talking about Delano here?
You should've bought last year. Ya'll priced out!

@Kenkoko, does your cousin like living at Delano? Which plan does he live? Any pros and cons so far?

Plan 3. He likes it so far. He's a runner and has dogs. He tells me it's been great with trails being so close. He likes it better than Woodbury where he used to live.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Not sure if kenkeko took into account tax savings but I think you are missing my point.

Obv if your are on a renters budget, you are unsure of long term living in Irvine, or can?t afford it, then rent.

But if you have the financial capability, can stay for at least 5 years, then why wait? Like LL said, appreciation could make up for not being able to invest the down and not having to worry about timing has its own value.

Yes, everyone?s situation is different but I?m referring to those who want to buy and the only thing holding them back is conflation timing.

Yes, we did take into account tax savings. It is a rather small amount of saving. He is single therefore the max mortgage deduction is capped at $375k.

Maybe I am missing your point... I am looking for financial justifications for making the biggest financial investment of his young life.

Your point (as I interpreted) seems to be like the Nike slogan " Just Do it".

If he can afford it and the product is good (unlike that Delano sandwich apartment like home), then yes... just do it.

But if he is single, transitional, not sure if he is going to live in Irvine... then rent.

But it doesn't sound like your cousin is waiting because he thinks prices will slowdown... he's waiting because he's not sure if he wants to spend the money on a purchase.

So again, not who my comments were directed towards.

 

[Mety]

What are you guys doing still talking about Delano here?
You should've bought last year. Ya'll priced out!

@Kenkoko, does your cousin like living at Delano? Which plan does he live? Any pros and cons so far?

Plan 3. He likes it so far. He's a runner and has dogs. He tells me it's been great with trails being so close. He likes it better than Woodbury where he used to live.

A single guy at the plan3 with 4 bedrooms? What a baller. I barely used 2 bedrooms when I was single.

BTW, I?m seeing more and more price reductions also. Did you guys manage to sell your homes with MAX ROI?

 

[Mety]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

 

[irvinehomeowner]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

I?m quoting this just in case someone tries to BTB it.

I get what you are trying to say but it?s flawed.

 

[Mety]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

I?m quoting this just in case someone tries to BTB it.

I get what you are trying to say but it?s flawed.

Let me quote it again in case you still think I?m BTB.
Make your case, mate. School me how it?s flawed.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

Here is why rental market to take off like a rocket. 

 

[meccos12]

Reportsonhousing update:

1.  inventory in OC up to 7070, compared to 5639 last year  (23% increase)
2. Expected time on market up from 51 days in May to 98 days today
3.  Demand down to 2162 currently from peak of 2726 in may this year.  YoY down 21% from 2624 to 2162. 
4.  Homes 750K or lower - still slight sellers market at 72 days market time
5.  750-1M is balanced market at 90 days
6.  1-1.25M is balanced market at 113 days
7.  1.25-1.5M market time up from 110 to 124 days. 
8.  1.5-2M up from 135 to 174 days

Market HAS changed.  We went from a hot sellers market to a balanced market in the middle of the summer selling season.  The pace at which this happened seems very quick.  Anyone else care to throw their two cents in?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

I?m quoting this just in case someone tries to BTB it.

I get what you are trying to say but it?s flawed.

Let me quote it again in case you still think I?m BTB.
Make your case, mate. School me how it?s flawed.

1. I?m not saying you are BTB. What I?m saying is you might delete this post later like BTB.

2. Using a single data point is not a compelling argument.

3. New housing tracts will rarely experience large drops across inventory because of many factors. Too new, herd effect, etc etc. There are exceptions like Columbus Grove but even that was limited. You?ll see more drops in older hoods where not everyone paid the same price within the same time frame.

4. *If* Delano drops to $800k, you should be buying something else.

5. The claim about 2016 prices is I believe a 5-10% drop (as a whole, not just a specific product) and for that difference, if financed, is it really worth the wait? That?s what I?m asking.

 

[Kenkoko]

A single guy at the plan3 with 4 bedrooms? What a baller. I barely used 2 bedrooms when I was single.

BTW, I?m seeing more and more price reductions also. Did you guys manage to sell your homes with MAX ROI?

He's living with his younger brother. The 3rd room is for the dogs.
The downstairs bedroom and bathroom is reserved for his parents when they visit. A lot of FOB families have this unwritten rule to show respect. My downstairs bedroom suite is also reserved for my parents even tho they almost never used it.

I am also seeing more and more price reductions.

 

[Kenkoko]

Here is why rental market to take off like a rocket. 

Irvine rental market is actually dropping quite a bit, especially in the great park neighborhoods.

$3500/month for this house and no taker yet.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/134-Newall-Irvine-CA-92618/2095129211_zpid/

$4700/month for this 3200 sqft 1.5 mil SFD.  Irvine rental market is  :'( . A mixed use 800k condo in Aliso Viejo rents for $4700/ month
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/63-Harlow-Irvine-CA-92618/2087862040_zpid/

 

[woodburyowner]

Yes, we did take into account tax savings. It is a rather small amount of saving. He is single therefore the max mortgage deduction is capped at $375k.

Since no one else has corrected this, I will.  Single gets to deduct $750k mortgage interest.  Single/HoH/MFJ is all 750k.

 

[Kenkoko]

Yes, we did take into account tax savings. It is a rather small amount of saving. He is single therefore the max mortgage deduction is capped at $375k.

Since no one else has corrected this, I will.  Single gets to deduct $750k mortgage interest.  Single/HoH/MFJ is all 750k.

Thanks for the correction. Just looked it up, you are right. I used $375k to calculate since that's my cap (I am married filing separately). I just assumed it was the same for a single person.

Even with doubling the mortgage interest tax savings, it still would not move the needle very much when it comes to rent vs buy tho

 

[Mety]

For those of you saying it will only drop to 2016 or 2017 price range and it?s not worth to wait to buy,  maybe you guys need to do some more homework.

Last year, Delano was selling almost $200k less of a price than today?s. If it?s priced with last year?s phases again, it will sell like a hot cake real quick. Not to mention 2016 was even lower overall.

So is it worth to wait to get 2016 or even last year?s price range? The answer is up to you who have different situations and opinions, but the fact is there is a chance to buy cheaper a little bit later on than now.

#lessdebt>moredebt

I?m quoting this just in case someone tries to BTB it.

I get what you are trying to say but it?s flawed.

Let me quote it again in case you still think I?m BTB.
Make your case, mate. School me how it?s flawed.

1. I?m not saying you are BTB. What I?m saying is you might delete this post later like BTB.

2. Using a single data point is not a compelling argument.

3. New housing tracts will rarely experience large drops across inventory because of many factors. Too new, herd effect, etc etc. There are exceptions like Columbus Grove but even that was limited. You?ll see more drops in older hoods where not everyone paid the same price within the same time frame.

4. *If* Delano drops to $800k, you should be buying something else.

5. The claim about 2016 prices is I believe a 5-10% drop (as a whole, not just a specific product) and for that difference, if financed, is it really worth the wait? That?s what I?m asking.

1. Why worry about my words disappearing?

2. Delano is a mere example of the current market situation. Check the comps with the similar type of homes. You'll be surprised. 

3. New homes do seem a little bit more expensive, but again, Irvine homes tend to maintain the value no matter how old. For example, look at all those old El Camino Real, Northwood and Woodbridge homes. They are being listed almost as much as new ones. The upgrades and landscaping might already be done with for older ones, but most likely people who plan live there will spend extra money on renovation/upgrade to fit their own taste. The ones listed a little bit lower, they are like in the original condition straight outta 1977.

4. I will say this again in case you missed. Whenever I say Delano, it's more for entertainment purposes. You and I might have different sense of humors. My apologies if thy hath found it funny not. But I think BTB and I kinda had similar.  ;D

5. The difference between now and 2016 prices is not 5-10%. It's more like 15-20%. The last year was the crazy year that truly held the slogan, "Buy now or be priced out forever."

I guess you're saying Irvine homes will not drop more than 5-10% from here. But is that what you're just hoping for or a valued opinion after a thorough study of how the market is moving? In defense of those who have different opinions than yours, they seem like they've been involved in the market currently and did some fine study on the flow and paid attention to what the experts are saying also. But who knows? Even the experts could be very wrong. They're not God. The market might sky rocket again and the prices might keep rising. Or it might tank so hard and come down to 2011 price level again. No one knows. I respect your opinions, but please don't say 2016 price is not worth the wait. It might confuse the first time home buyers.

 

[Mety]

A single guy at the plan3 with 4 bedrooms? What a baller. I barely used 2 bedrooms when I was single.

BTW, I?m seeing more and more price reductions also. Did you guys manage to sell your homes with MAX ROI?

He's living with his younger brother. The 3rd room is for the dogs.
The downstairs bedroom and bathroom is reserved for his parents when they visit. A lot of FOB families have this unwritten rule to show respect. My downstairs bedroom suite is also reserved for my parents even tho they almost never used it.

I am also seeing more and more price reductions.

Dang, such an expensive unwritten rule to show respect. Gotta have a downstairs guest room ready.  ;D
Is that usually just for Chinese families?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The pause is a good valve relief. This is much needed to calm everyone nerve. I can tell you now that those that buy now, they have a very clear motive in owning and not speculating like during the last housing crash. Forget about confuse, no one is confuse in this market. The need to own is from their personal desires other than appreciation at this point.

 

[upon9k]

Dang, such an expensive unwritten rule to show respect. Gotta have a downstairs guest room ready.  ;D
Is that usually just for Chinese families?

That's not just for Chinese families - generally speaking that is a mentality that resonates with lots of east Asian families.

 

[meccos12]

The pause is a good valve relief. This is much needed to calm everyone nerve. I can tell you now that those that buy now, they have a very clear motive in owning and not speculating like during the last housing crash. Forget about confuse, no one is confuse in this market. The need to own is from their personal desires other than appreciation at this point.

Funny how things change so quickly.  3 months ago, people were still buying in a frenzy, thinking homes were going to appreciate like crazy.  Now, everyone and their mothers know that housing is slowing down significantly.  There are still a few late to get the notice but im sure they will find out sooner or later.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

5. The difference between now and 2016 prices is not 5-10%. It's more like 15-20%. The last year was the crazy year that truly held the slogan, "Buy now or be priced out forever."

Across the board? I thought someone said it was about a 10% difference. So you are saying that prices have jumped 20% in the last 2 years?

I guess you're saying Irvine homes will not drop more than 5-10% from here. But is that what you're just hoping for or a valued opinion after a thorough study of how the market is moving? In defense of those who have different opinions than yours, they seem like they've been involved in the market currently and did some fine study on the flow and paid attention to what the experts are saying also. But who knows? Even the experts could be very wrong. They're not God. The market might sky rocket again and the prices might keep rising. Or it might tank so hard and come down to 2011 price level again. No one knows. I respect your opinions, but please don't say 2016 price is not worth the wait. It might confuse the first time home buyers.

No. That's what I was asking. I haven't been active in the market for the last few years so I don't know what the difference in pricing between 2016 and now is. Maybe you are not reading my posts:

Is 2016 prices a significant drop/savings?

If you wanted to buy in 2016 or last year and have been waiting, is the upcoming ?slowdown? even worth it?

I think we mentioned that 2012 is at least a 20% drop ($1m to $800k) for most SFRs but are you telling me that 2016 is a 20% for most of the product in Irvine?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

4. *If* Delano drops to $800k, you should be buying something else.

4. I will say this again in case you missed. Whenever I say Delano, it's more for entertainment purposes. You and I might have different sense of humors. My apologies if thy hath found it funny not. But I think BTB and I kinda had similar.  ;D

Thou doth not get the irony.