Housing Analysis
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I think IHO and meccos12 are paid posters here. They are creating more and more of these posts to keep TI alive.
I would suggest make the environmental hazards sheet 3.0. Then TI will have another blockbuster hit. Make sure you come with the spread sheet and the content for each village pictures of hazardous items. It's gotta be stronger than YF's original one.
The cool thing to do is drop your name in the conversation. Even though you probably don?t agree with his position.
I think you misread zub's post. He meant that *Mety* clarified my position because you kept asking about it:
My position has been pretty clear to everyone except you. And I've answered every question you've asked. Again, we just don't agree and that's fine with me... you need to make peace with it and move on.
Housing hasn't been the only thing that sector that has slowed down, the car market is also slowed down a good bit. I think higher interest rates have also taken some steam out of that market too but I read somewhere that auto loan defaults have risen materially in the 2nd half of last year. Wonder if this slowdown has been caused by the side effects of coming off the low interest rate sugar rush.
We debated this back in 2016, I stated interest rates will have an impact on real estate prices https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,14629.msg294818.html#msg294818
Rates went up and real estate quickly flattened out and mildly pulled back to around 2017 #'s in some OC markets here. Nothing drastic though (which is good)
The positive in all of this is I don't think we're going to get a rate hike this year, or possibly just 1.
I'm hoping the way this plays out is the market simply consolidates/digests it's appreciation gains in the last few years, builds a new base/foundation during this sideways market, and then up and up and away we go
I was too early in my great recession call (sold everything in my 401k in '07) but I feel like I nailed this one. Around that time I was pleading with some friends to not buy a house, and now they are glad they didn't. This might just be a small slump, like '10-'12, but at the very least it takes the edge off prices while giving buyers a lot more inventory to choose from. Maybe time to line up that perfect home.
That said, my gut tells me a recession will hit this year, even though fundamentals are excellent.
I think you nailed, a few of my buyers who came off the sidelines in Jan found their right homes recently along with lower rates (compared to late 2018). It's actually fun now negotiating prices as a buyer's agent today. Yes, there are some delusional listing agents/sellers out there but there's more properties to pick from so we can move on to other homes quickly.
I wouldn't be shocked...
1. Nice breaking of what PMs are for.
2. Where is the post where I made a "personal attack" on Belly? That would be a public post (so no breaking of PMs) and I don't delete my posts so you should be able to find it.
3. And how does this prove that I forced him off of TI which is what you keep accusing me of?
4. Why post in this thread? That's why I made the other thread so this doesn't muddy up the "Housing Analysis".
zubs said:
I think IHO and meccos12 are paid posters here. They are creating more and more of these posts to keep TI alive.
I would suggest make the environmental hazards sheet 3.0. Then TI will have another blockbuster hit. Make sure you come with the spread sheet and the content for each village pictures of hazardous items. It's gotta be stronger than YF's original one.
Mety said:zubs said:
I think IHO and meccos12 are paid posters here. They are creating more and more of these posts to keep TI alive.
I would suggest make the environmental hazards sheet 3.0. Then TI will have another blockbuster hit. Make sure you come with the spread sheet and the content for each village pictures of hazardous items. It's gotta be stronger than YF's original one.
The cool thing to do is drop your name in the conversation. Even though you probably don?t agree with his position.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
I think you misread zub's post. He meant that *Mety* clarified my position because you kept asking about it:
Mety said:
My position has been pretty clear to everyone except you. And I've answered every question you've asked. Again, we just don't agree and that's fine with me... you need to make peace with it and move on.
Regarding where we are with housing I think this NY times article does an excellent job.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html
?Street insider article: The New Home Co. (NWHM) Misses Q4 EPS by 18c, Revenues Miss
Larry Webb, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of The New Home Company. "However, the fourth quarter of 2018 proved to be a challenge as potential buyers in our markets exercised a high degree of caution during what is already a seasonally slow period, which resulted in a slower absorption rate. In addition, we experienced some construction delays at a few communities, most notably at our multifamily condominium community in Playa Vista, which negatively impacted our fourth quarter revenues. While we continue to have confidence in the fundamental drivers of our business and strategy, we acknowledge the operational challenges a slowing housing market poses and have adjusted our outlook accordingly.?
Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=15140692&gfv=1
My comment: ?potential buyers excerised a high degree of caution?... This is coming from the CEO of a publicly traded home builder company. But you know what? I?m not surprised. It just confirms my position and outlook of the housing market.
Larry Webb, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of The New Home Company. "However, the fourth quarter of 2018 proved to be a challenge as potential buyers in our markets exercised a high degree of caution during what is already a seasonally slow period, which resulted in a slower absorption rate. In addition, we experienced some construction delays at a few communities, most notably at our multifamily condominium community in Playa Vista, which negatively impacted our fourth quarter revenues. While we continue to have confidence in the fundamental drivers of our business and strategy, we acknowledge the operational challenges a slowing housing market poses and have adjusted our outlook accordingly.?
Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=15140692&gfv=1
My comment: ?potential buyers excerised a high degree of caution?... This is coming from the CEO of a publicly traded home builder company. But you know what? I?m not surprised. It just confirms my position and outlook of the housing market.
They are all in the end saying with "it will be fine" type of attitude from that NY Time article and even this Street Insider.
It's funny because they try to "claim" the slowdown first instead of denying, then they try to justify and say that the market is still strong so it will be fine.
I think it will be fine for those builders since they've already made ton of money from previous years, but I don't know about the potential buyers who would regret buying at the peak. Well, the peak sort of already passed in my opinion so I guess it's a little better to buy now than say 6 months ago. Maybe even better to buy later than now if you are not in hurry?
It's funny because they try to "claim" the slowdown first instead of denying, then they try to justify and say that the market is still strong so it will be fine.
I think it will be fine for those builders since they've already made ton of money from previous years, but I don't know about the potential buyers who would regret buying at the peak. Well, the peak sort of already passed in my opinion so I guess it's a little better to buy now than say 6 months ago. Maybe even better to buy later than now if you are not in hurry?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Mety said:
Housing hasn't been the only thing that sector that has slowed down, the car market is also slowed down a good bit. I think higher interest rates have also taken some steam out of that market too but I read somewhere that auto loan defaults have risen materially in the 2nd half of last year. Wonder if this slowdown has been caused by the side effects of coming off the low interest rate sugar rush.
USCTrojanCPA said:
We debated this back in 2016, I stated interest rates will have an impact on real estate prices https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,14629.msg294818.html#msg294818
Rates went up and real estate quickly flattened out and mildly pulled back to around 2017 #'s in some OC markets here. Nothing drastic though (which is good)
The positive in all of this is I don't think we're going to get a rate hike this year, or possibly just 1.
I'm hoping the way this plays out is the market simply consolidates/digests it's appreciation gains in the last few years, builds a new base/foundation during this sideways market, and then up and up and away we go
US existing home sales fall sharply to 3-year low
That was the lowest level since November 2015 and well below analysts' expectations of a rate of 5.0 million units.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/existing-home-sales-january.html
That was the lowest level since November 2015 and well below analysts' expectations of a rate of 5.0 million units.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/existing-home-sales-january.html
Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish
Prashant Gopal
BloombergFebruary 27, 2019
(Bloomberg) -- Toll Brothers Inc.?s new home orders dropped 24 percent in the fiscal first quarter, the steepest annual decline for the biggest U.S. luxury homebuilder since the depths of the housing crash in 2010. The company struggled to find move-up buyers in California, which is gripped by an affordability crisis.
Analysts expected a decline of less than 15 percent in new home contracts in the quarter, which ended Jan. 31. Instead, it was the largest drop since the 27 percent year-over-year fall in the third quarter of 2010.
An improvement in margins provided comfort for some investors, but they were based on contracts signed six or nine months ago, before the market began cooling, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading. Orders fell 62 percent in California, where Toll has a heavy focus.
... ...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-california-144209405.html
Prashant Gopal
BloombergFebruary 27, 2019
(Bloomberg) -- Toll Brothers Inc.?s new home orders dropped 24 percent in the fiscal first quarter, the steepest annual decline for the biggest U.S. luxury homebuilder since the depths of the housing crash in 2010. The company struggled to find move-up buyers in California, which is gripped by an affordability crisis.
Analysts expected a decline of less than 15 percent in new home contracts in the quarter, which ended Jan. 31. Instead, it was the largest drop since the 27 percent year-over-year fall in the third quarter of 2010.
An improvement in margins provided comfort for some investors, but they were based on contracts signed six or nine months ago, before the market began cooling, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading. Orders fell 62 percent in California, where Toll has a heavy focus.
... ...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-california-144209405.html
daedalus said:
I was too early in my great recession call (sold everything in my 401k in '07) but I feel like I nailed this one. Around that time I was pleading with some friends to not buy a house, and now they are glad they didn't. This might just be a small slump, like '10-'12, but at the very least it takes the edge off prices while giving buyers a lot more inventory to choose from. Maybe time to line up that perfect home.
That said, my gut tells me a recession will hit this year, even though fundamentals are excellent.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
daedalus said:
I think you nailed, a few of my buyers who came off the sidelines in Jan found their right homes recently along with lower rates (compared to late 2018). It's actually fun now negotiating prices as a buyer's agent today. Yes, there are some delusional listing agents/sellers out there but there's more properties to pick from so we can move on to other homes quickly.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
I wouldn't be shocked...
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
1. Nice breaking of what PMs are for.
2. Where is the post where I made a "personal attack" on Belly? That would be a public post (so no breaking of PMs) and I don't delete my posts so you should be able to find it.
3. And how does this prove that I forced him off of TI which is what you keep accusing me of?
4. Why post in this thread? That's why I made the other thread so this doesn't muddy up the "Housing Analysis".