Housing Analysis
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I'm so skurred.
Go ahead, release the PM and break what the meaning of PM is.
By the way, you're such an Internet tough guy:
So that goes back to my question that meccos12 did not answer:
I don't know if that's true and there is a pretty huge gap between 3 and 11 especially in percentile numbers. During the seasonal slowdowns, the homes usually sit a little longer but never had a price drop this significant as much as this time around. According to USCTrojan and as some others on TI including myself did some research, the "right" current price is if you list at about the end of 2017's price. Anything listed above, they suffer sitting on the market 100+ days. So it does make sense it might stay flat or go down a little bit more towards to the mid to early 2017's price range. Remember, the home's price should be up by default each year as our income usually goes up each year as well, just like there is the seasonality affect each year. But this time, it seems to be going down. So that's the unusual fact worth discussing about.
Yeah, I could see prices heading towards mid-2017 prices. Last year was really interesting....we were up about 4-6% in the first 6 months of 2018 and then we gave up all of those gains in the second half of the year. Biggest issue for the my buyers that went to the sidelines in the second half of 2018 was the high rates first and price decline worries second. I hear from most all of my buyers that they are doing well with the jobs and companies so the economic background is still a tailwind at this point. I think the buyer mentality started to shift when they saw the first signs of price declines and realized that the market was shifting where they had more negotiating power. My buyers are definitely being more selective and patient allows the right homes to come to them. Personally, I like that the market is more balanced because it's this market where I can use my negotiation skills to the fullest.
Looks like the site has died a slow death.
Dang it, you got me... I was a little bored.
Did you actually research this or did you just pull this out of your ass like most of the data you like to post? If you did look it up, why such uncertainty? Why is it that it could be less than 3% or more than 11%? Id truly love to see your data for seasonal price differences. Please post.
The fact that you are asking if something is within the boundary of "seasonal" changes based solely on how much prices drop and then increase, clearly demonstrates you have no idea of what seasonality means. The amount it drops and increases is unimportant, but rather the time frame in which it does. Determining seasonality is simple, as I have explained to you over and over. Look at YoY numbers. Its simple. End of class.
One extra lesson before I go. If one claims of a slowdown (like myself, eye and a few others) in August of 2018, to gauge whether there is a true drop in prices, you should look YoY prices starting from a year of slowdown and also look at real prices instead of nominal prices. It is pointless to look at immediate price drops as prices lag volume as I have stated before, but also because you cant get YoY prices immediately.
Thus all your posturing about prices is just that... posturing. If you want the real state of the market, look at volume, supply, demand. These numbers today will tell you prices in the future.
I used the same Trulia peak-to-trough data that you used to determine your "28% drop" during the last crash for Irvine.
The reason I say could be more or less is as I mentioned before, peak-to-trough isn't a realistic measurement because you don't know the stock sold at the time and it's better to use a rolling average of at least 6 months. Just look it up yourself since you are the so-called data expert (with zero credentials I might add).
Again, look at the data. I just used the peak to drop for each year for the last 5 years, most times that was spring to fall, other times it was summer to fall. I purposely used those parameters because you don't seem to believe in the rolling month average. Using that data, in one year, the drop was only 3%, in another year, the drop was as high as almost 11%. This year, so far, it's 4-6%. Here's a link to what I was looking at (which I've posted many times before):
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
Not sure what you mean by I don't know what "seasonality" is. The chart clearly demonstrates a cyclical pattern every year.
Which is why I stated that I can't make a determination. I would like to see what prices are once the selling season starts up again... which is usually around now.
This is confusing, you say I'm posturing about prices but then you say volume, supply, demand will tell us what prices will be. Isn't that the point? Isn't that why eyephone said to wait because prices will be lower? Isn't that what the "slowdown" term contends (remember... many pages ago I asked are referring to a slowdown in prices or sales volume).
This is my point, if someone said there is slowdown coming in August of almost every year for the past 5 years, are they really saying anything kudos worthy? If prices go back up this year, which is possible due to the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine real estate, then what other phenomenon could we chalk this up to?
So far, Irvine prices are down only 4-6% based on the same Trulia data (September was actually the top, not August as you predicted... sorry). Even if that goes down another 5%, that's still not as high as the drop in 2015 (where were your predictions then? You were active on TI since 2014).
And I would appreciate it if you try to remain civil in your responses, you think it makes you look good by trying to insult me but you should know by now that credibility isn't determined by being right or wrong, it's by how you present and respond in a discussion.
And I'm still waiting for you to answer my question.
It?s not only that. He asks for a prediction of the percentage that is nearly impossible to get. If you don?t give a percentage then you are wrong. It?s been like 6 months (or even longer) and he still thinks it?s seasonality. The summer time suppose to be hot for RE and it wasn?t. I hope no serious person is acting on his advice.
Trolling gets really old. Who knows he might make a thread dedicated to you like he did to me?
At this point, I think its his ego that prevents him from seeing the truth or at least admitting the truth. Im sure he will continue to argue for seasonality until housing does actually pick up.
Did you see his post? Credibility is not determine if your right or wrong, but how you represent and respond to the discussion. (unbelievable!)
That?s equivalent to saying if the report looks good then it?s credible. If the content of the analysis is wrong then it?s okay. But if your always wrong, who would trust your reports.
Maybe that?s what happened to those companies that went under. They got bad analysis and had bad forecasts and didn?t want to believe the truth. Next thing you know they are shutting down stores, shutting down the website, and closing the company.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
I'm so skurred.
Go ahead, release the PM and break what the meaning of PM is.
By the way, you're such an Internet tough guy:
eyephone said:
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Ok gang, how about we focus on our predictions for the year which might be of more interest to the folks on here.
I'll start off, I think the lower end of the market will be flat to slightly down a few percent (more flat if rates continue to bleed lower and more down if rates rise and inventory levels continue to rise significantly). I think the higher end of the market will continue to see price declines as there is a lot of resale inventory (with many, many stubborn/delusional sellers) and a growing amount of unsold new home inventory (our new shadow inventory). The majority of the unsold homes in Irvine are in the $1m+ category.
My guess is that interest rates will bleed down to 3.50% to 3.75% on the 30-year fixed and to around 3% for a 7-year ARM. If there is a trade deal with China and the FED does stay paused while the job market stays strong that should be a safety net for any material price declines.
I'll start off, I think the lower end of the market will be flat to slightly down a few percent (more flat if rates continue to bleed lower and more down if rates rise and inventory levels continue to rise significantly). I think the higher end of the market will continue to see price declines as there is a lot of resale inventory (with many, many stubborn/delusional sellers) and a growing amount of unsold new home inventory (our new shadow inventory). The majority of the unsold homes in Irvine are in the $1m+ category.
My guess is that interest rates will bleed down to 3.50% to 3.75% on the 30-year fixed and to around 3% for a 7-year ARM. If there is a trade deal with China and the FED does stay paused while the job market stays strong that should be a safety net for any material price declines.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
So that goes back to my question that meccos12 did not answer:
irvinehomeowner said:
I don't know if that's true and there is a pretty huge gap between 3 and 11 especially in percentile numbers. During the seasonal slowdowns, the homes usually sit a little longer but never had a price drop this significant as much as this time around. According to USCTrojan and as some others on TI including myself did some research, the "right" current price is if you list at about the end of 2017's price. Anything listed above, they suffer sitting on the market 100+ days. So it does make sense it might stay flat or go down a little bit more towards to the mid to early 2017's price range. Remember, the home's price should be up by default each year as our income usually goes up each year as well, just like there is the seasonality affect each year. But this time, it seems to be going down. So that's the unusual fact worth discussing about.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Mety said:
Yeah, I could see prices heading towards mid-2017 prices. Last year was really interesting....we were up about 4-6% in the first 6 months of 2018 and then we gave up all of those gains in the second half of the year. Biggest issue for the my buyers that went to the sidelines in the second half of 2018 was the high rates first and price decline worries second. I hear from most all of my buyers that they are doing well with the jobs and companies so the economic background is still a tailwind at this point. I think the buyer mentality started to shift when they saw the first signs of price declines and realized that the market was shifting where they had more negotiating power. My buyers are definitely being more selective and patient allows the right homes to come to them. Personally, I like that the market is more balanced because it's this market where I can use my negotiation skills to the fullest.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
zubs said:
Looks like the site has died a slow death.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:TI was also dying so IHO is pumpin it up by keepin it real with drop the mic argument style.
Dang it, you got me... I was a little bored.
irvinehomeowner said:
Did you actually research this or did you just pull this out of your ass like most of the data you like to post? If you did look it up, why such uncertainty? Why is it that it could be less than 3% or more than 11%? Id truly love to see your data for seasonal price differences. Please post.
The fact that you are asking if something is within the boundary of "seasonal" changes based solely on how much prices drop and then increase, clearly demonstrates you have no idea of what seasonality means. The amount it drops and increases is unimportant, but rather the time frame in which it does. Determining seasonality is simple, as I have explained to you over and over. Look at YoY numbers. Its simple. End of class.
One extra lesson before I go. If one claims of a slowdown (like myself, eye and a few others) in August of 2018, to gauge whether there is a true drop in prices, you should look YoY prices starting from a year of slowdown and also look at real prices instead of nominal prices. It is pointless to look at immediate price drops as prices lag volume as I have stated before, but also because you cant get YoY prices immediately.
Thus all your posturing about prices is just that... posturing. If you want the real state of the market, look at volume, supply, demand. These numbers today will tell you prices in the future.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
I used the same Trulia peak-to-trough data that you used to determine your "28% drop" during the last crash for Irvine.
The reason I say could be more or less is as I mentioned before, peak-to-trough isn't a realistic measurement because you don't know the stock sold at the time and it's better to use a rolling average of at least 6 months. Just look it up yourself since you are the so-called data expert (with zero credentials I might add).
Again, look at the data. I just used the peak to drop for each year for the last 5 years, most times that was spring to fall, other times it was summer to fall. I purposely used those parameters because you don't seem to believe in the rolling month average. Using that data, in one year, the drop was only 3%, in another year, the drop was as high as almost 11%. This year, so far, it's 4-6%. Here's a link to what I was looking at (which I've posted many times before):
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
Not sure what you mean by I don't know what "seasonality" is. The chart clearly demonstrates a cyclical pattern every year.
Which is why I stated that I can't make a determination. I would like to see what prices are once the selling season starts up again... which is usually around now.
This is confusing, you say I'm posturing about prices but then you say volume, supply, demand will tell us what prices will be. Isn't that the point? Isn't that why eyephone said to wait because prices will be lower? Isn't that what the "slowdown" term contends (remember... many pages ago I asked are referring to a slowdown in prices or sales volume).
This is my point, if someone said there is slowdown coming in August of almost every year for the past 5 years, are they really saying anything kudos worthy? If prices go back up this year, which is possible due to the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine real estate, then what other phenomenon could we chalk this up to?
So far, Irvine prices are down only 4-6% based on the same Trulia data (September was actually the top, not August as you predicted... sorry). Even if that goes down another 5%, that's still not as high as the drop in 2015 (where were your predictions then? You were active on TI since 2014).
And I would appreciate it if you try to remain civil in your responses, you think it makes you look good by trying to insult me but you should know by now that credibility isn't determined by being right or wrong, it's by how you present and respond in a discussion.
And I'm still waiting for you to answer my question.
meccos12 said:
It?s not only that. He asks for a prediction of the percentage that is nearly impossible to get. If you don?t give a percentage then you are wrong. It?s been like 6 months (or even longer) and he still thinks it?s seasonality. The summer time suppose to be hot for RE and it wasn?t. I hope no serious person is acting on his advice.
Trolling gets really old. Who knows he might make a thread dedicated to you like he did to me?
eyephone said:meccos12 said:
It?s not only that. He asks for a prediction of the percentage that is nearly impossible to get. If you don?t give a percentage then you are wrong. It?s been like 6 months (or even longer) and he still thinks it?s seasonality. The summer time suppose to be hot for RE and it wasn?t. I hope no serious person is acting on his advice.
Trolling gets really old. Who knows he might make a thread dedicated to you like he did to me?
At this point, I think its his ego that prevents him from seeing the truth or at least admitting the truth. Im sure he will continue to argue for seasonality until housing does actually pick up.
meccos12 said:eyephone said:meccos12 said:
It?s not only that. He asks for a prediction of the percentage that is nearly impossible to get. If you don?t give a percentage then you are wrong. It?s been like 6 months (or even longer) and he still thinks it?s seasonality. The summer time suppose to be hot for RE and it wasn?t. I hope no serious person is acting on his advice.
Trolling gets really old. Who knows he might make a thread dedicated to you like he did to me?
At this point, I think its his ego that prevents him from seeing the truth or at least admitting the truth. Im sure he will continue to argue for seasonality until housing does actually pick up.
Did you see his post? Credibility is not determine if your right or wrong, but how you represent and respond to the discussion. (unbelievable!)
That?s equivalent to saying if the report looks good then it?s credible. If the content of the analysis is wrong then it?s okay. But if your always wrong, who would trust your reports.
Maybe that?s what happened to those companies that went under. They got bad analysis and had bad forecasts and didn?t want to believe the truth. Next thing you know they are shutting down stores, shutting down the website, and closing the company.